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`Blockbuster Drug Launches 2016: The 7 to Watch | Fortune
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`7 New Blockbuster Drugs to Watch in 2016
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`Photograph by GP Kidd—Getty Images/Cultura RF
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`By LAURA LORENZETTI March 25, 2016
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`Blockbuster drugs, those medicines that bring in more than $1 billion in sales
`every year, are the holy grail of drug development. They can make a
`pharmaceutical company and send them to rock-star status among investors, as
`evidenced by the rise of Gilead Sciences after the launch of its hepatitis C
`treatments. This year’s slate of new drug launches features at least seven drugs
`expected to hit blockbuster status within the next five years, according to a
`study by Thomson Reuters.
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`The line-up also reveals key trends within the pharmaceutical industry for this
`year and beyond, including an increasing focus on rare diseases, the
`development of more convenient single-dose regimens, and more affordable
`treatments.
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`Here are the seven drugs set to launch this year and reach blockbuster status by
`2020.
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`Blockbuster Drug Launches 2016: The 7 to Watch | Fortune
`1. Intercept Pharmaceuticals and Sumitomo Dainippon Pharma
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`Drug: Obeticholic acid
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`Indication: Chronic liver diseases, primarily primary biliary cirrhosis
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`2020 Forecast Sales: $2.62 billion
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`Intercept Pharmaceuticals’ (ICPT, +2.79%) obeticholic acid has proved very
`effective in treating non-alcoholic steatohepatitis, a type of liver inflammation
`caused by fat build-up in the organ. This condition has no approved treatment
`and a potentially large market, which is expected to push the drug to
`blockbuster status, if approved. About 2% to 3% of the global population has
`non-alcholoic steatohepatitis and the share will likely increase due to rising
`rates of pre-disposing factors like obesity and insulin resistance.
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`2. Gilead Sciences and Japan Tobacco
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`Drug: Emtricitabine and tenofovir alafenamide (F/TAF)
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`Indication: HIV-1 infection
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`2020 Forecast Sales: $2 billion
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`Gilead’s (GILD, -0.28%) two HIV-1 infection drugs in development are both
`expected to be big money-makers, and the company is hoping the new daily
`single-dosage options will be able to replace sales of its existing HIV
`treatments that are set to lose patent protections in 2017. The new TAF-based
`therapies show evidence that they are potentially a safer replacement for some
`current therapies, including Gilead’s own Truvada.
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`3. Gilead Sciences and Janssen R&D
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`Drug: Tenofovir alafenamide and emtricitabine and rilpivirine (R/F/TAF)
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`Indication: HIV-1 infection
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`2020 Forecast Sales: $1.57 billion
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`Like the No. 2 drug on this list, Gilead’s secondary TAF-based combination
`therapy in partnership with Johnson & Johnson’s (JNJ, -0.01%) Janssen unit is
`expected to improve renal and bone mineral density measurements compared
`with some existing drugs. Those results combined with the improved longevity
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`of HIV patients and increasing numbers of those eligible for antiretroviral
`drugs means a large and lucrative market for the two new TAF-based drugs.
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`4. Merck & Co.
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`Drug: MK-5172A
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`Indication: Hepatitis C virus
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`2020 Forecast Sales: $1.54 billion
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`Merck (MRK, -0.26%) is getting ready to enter the heated market for hepatitis C
`treatments, going up against Gilead’s Harvoni and Abbvie’s Viekira Pak.
`Following a significant setback when theFood and Drug Administration
`withdrew its “breakthrough drug” status, Merck’s treatment could finally
`launch this year to give another safe and high-quality treatment for the
`disease. A recent warning by the FDA concerning Viekira Pak has dampened
`sales of Abbvie’s drug, which could give Merck a leg up when it eventually
`brings its hepatitis C drug to market. It could also pursue an aggressive pricing
`strategy to gain market share, given the currently high price tags on current
`treatments.
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`5. Abbvie
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`Drug: Venetoclax
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`Indication: Chronic lymphocytic leukemia
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`2020 Forecast Sales: $1.48 billion
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`Abbvie’s (ABBV, +0.60%) Venetoclax is a potential oral treatment for cancer,
`primarily focused on a type of chronic lymphocytic leukemia that is resistant to
`chemotherapy. The drug was a leading therapy at last year’s annual meeting of
`the American Society of Hematology after a clinical trial showed an overall
`response rate of 79.4% in patients with relapsed chronic lymphocytic leukemia.
`The drug is also being tested as a potential treatment for other hematological
`cancers like non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma, as well as in combination with
`tamoxifen in patients with metastatic breast cancer.
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`6. ACADIA Pharmaceuticals
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`Drug: Nuplazid
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`Indication: Parkinson’s disease psychosis
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`2020 Forecast Sales: $1.41 billion
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`ACADIA’s (ACAD, -3.74%) nuplazid could be the first and only drug on the market
`to help treat Parkinson’s disease psychosis, which affects up to 40% of
`Parkinson’s patients. Clinical trials have shown that the drug does not worsen
`motor symptoms, a vital factor for these patients, while improving night-time
`sleep, daytime wakefulness, and caregiver burden. Nuplazid may also work in
`other psychosis settings, such as schizophrenia and Alzheimer’s disease
`psychosis. The combination of those three diseases means ACADIA’s drug has a
`potentially massive and therefore lucrative market.
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`7. Nippon Shinyaku and Actelion
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`Drug: Uptravi
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`Indication: Pulmonary arterial hypertension
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`2020 Forecast Sales: $1.27 billion
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`Nippon Shinyaky’s Uptravi is able to both delay the progression of pulmonary
`arterial hypertension, a type of high blood pressure that affects arteries in the
`lungs and heart, as well as reduce the risk of hospitalization. The drug is the
`only one on this list that’s already available. It entered the market in the first
`week of January 2016 and is expected to bring in $189 million in its first year,
`with sales increasing to $1.27 billion by 2020. Uptravi is being promoted as an
`additional therapy once baseline treatment has been started. A massive clinical
`trial showed that Uptravi reduced the risk of death from pulmonary arterial
`hypertension by 39% versus placebo.
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