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`Xtandi Beats Casodex, Set to Top Zytiga
`Medivation’s prostatecancer drug is generating strong data but the stock already reflects much of the potential.
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`April 3, 2015
`
`RBC Capital Markets
`
`As expected, Medivation’s Xtandi handily beat AstraZeneca’s Casodex in the STRIVE
`prostatecancer study, too.
`
`Median progressionfree survival (PFS) of 19.4 for Medivation’s (ticker: MDVN ) Xtandi
`versus 5.7 months for AstraZeneca’s ( AZN ) Casodex in the STRIVE study, versus 15.7
`versus 5.8 months (Xtandi versus Casodex) in the TERRAIN study. The longer PFS in
`STRIVE versus TERRAIN is expected, given that STRIVE included both M0 and M1
`(both nonmetastatic and metastatic) patients (396 patients, all U.S.), while TERRAIN
`included only M1 (metastatic castrationresistant prostate cancer (CRPC)) patients (375
`patients in North America and Europe).
`
`Median time on treatment was 14.7 versus 8.4 months for Xtandi versus Casodex,
`respectively, and 11.7 versus 5.8 months in TERRAIN. Adverse events (AEs) were
`reported in 29.4% versus 28.3% (Xtandi versus Casodex) in STRIVE, and 31.1% versus
`23.3% in TERRAIN. G3 or higher cardiac AEs were 5.1% versus 4.0% (Xtandi versus
`Casodex), in line with 5.5% versus 2.1% in TERRAIN. There was one seizure in the
`Xtandi arm versus none in the Casodex arm, versus two for Xtandi and none for
`Casodex, in TERRAIN.
`
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`The data are positive and very consistent with the TERRAIN data and confirm the drug’s
`good activity and safety. Seizures are still there, but one in about 200 patients in STRIVE
`and two in about 200 in TERRAIN, but this looks like an acceptable risk/benefit and
`physicians have already been comfortable with it. We believe these data will help the drug
`get additional penetration in the prechemo setting, where we believe it will have the upper
`hand over [Johnson & Johnson’s ( JNJ )] Zytiga, mainly due to convenience. However,
`we believe that significant adoption in the earlier stages of the disease will require Phase 3
`data, which will take many years to read out.
`
`2
`
`3
`
`We believe Xtandi is a very active and welltolerated agent that would have the upper
`hand in the prechemo setting given Zytiga’s need for steroid use, so we project that
`Xtandi will eventually become the dominant player in these settings. However, given that
`Medivation shares this asset with Astellas Pharma [of Japan] (gets 50% of U.S. sales,
`lowteens to low20s royalties outside the U.S.), and despite projecting very generous
`Xtandi sales ($9 billion in 2026), we think Medivation shares already reflect the drug’s
`potential and we would look for a better entry point into this story.
`
`[We rate Medivation at Sector Perform.]
`
` Simos Simeonidis
`
`The opinions contained in Investors’ Soapbox in no way represent those of Barrons.com or Dow Jones &
`Company, Inc. The opinions expressed are those of the newsletter’s writer(s) or analysts at research firms.
`Some of the research firms have provided, or hope to provide, investmentbanking or other services to the
`companies being analyzed.
`
`To be considered for the Soapbox feature, please submit an original article of less than 1,000 words to
`research@barrons.com with “Soapbox Submission” in the headline. Please include your daytime telephone
`number and credentials.
`
`7/24/2015
`
`Xtandi Beats Casodex, Set to Top Zytiga Barron's
`
`http://online.barrons.com/articles/xtandibeatscasodexsettotopzytiga1428075331
`
`1/2
`
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`
`WSJ LIVE
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`
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`
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`
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`
`ASIA EDITION
`
`U.S. EDITION
`
`HOME
`
`MAGAZINE
`
`DAILY
`
`INVESTING IDEAS
`
`TOP ADVISORS
`
`MARKET DATA
`
`INVESTORS' SOAPBOX AM
`
`Xtandi Beats Casodex, Set to Top Zytiga
`Medivation’s prostatecancer drug is generating strong data but the stock already reflects much of the potential.
`
`
`
`Log In
`
`Subscribe
`
`PAID ADVISOR
`DIRECTORY
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`0 Comments
`
`
`
`Order Reprints
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`April 3, 2015
`
`RBC Capital Markets
`
`As expected, Medivation’s Xtandi handily beat AstraZeneca’s Casodex in the STRIVE
`prostatecancer study, too.
`
`Median progressionfree survival (PFS) of 19.4 for Medivation’s (ticker: MDVN ) Xtandi
`versus 5.7 months for AstraZeneca’s ( AZN ) Casodex in the STRIVE study, versus 15.7
`versus 5.8 months (Xtandi versus Casodex) in the TERRAIN study. The longer PFS in
`STRIVE versus TERRAIN is expected, given that STRIVE included both M0 and M1
`(both nonmetastatic and metastatic) patients (396 patients, all U.S.), while TERRAIN
`included only M1 (metastatic castrationresistant prostate cancer (CRPC)) patients (375
`patients in North America and Europe).
`
`Median time on treatment was 14.7 versus 8.4 months for Xtandi versus Casodex,
`respectively, and 11.7 versus 5.8 months in TERRAIN. Adverse events (AEs) were
`reported in 29.4% versus 28.3% (Xtandi versus Casodex) in STRIVE, and 31.1% versus
`23.3% in TERRAIN. G3 or higher cardiac AEs were 5.1% versus 4.0% (Xtandi versus
`Casodex), in line with 5.5% versus 2.1% in TERRAIN. There was one seizure in the
`Xtandi arm versus none in the Casodex arm, versus two for Xtandi and none for
`Casodex, in TERRAIN.
`
`Most Popular
`1.
`2.
`
`Bet on a Gilead Rally
`
`Byron Wien Sees Global Dark Clouds
`Clearing
`
`3.
`
`4.
`
`5.
`
`6 Great Investors Explain What Makes
`Stocks Rise
`
`What to Expect for Baidu, Alibaba,
`Tencent Earnings
`
`SeaWorld Can Leap 30%
`
`SEE FULL LIST
`
`Latest Market Videos
`1
`
`The Cutting Edge
`in Private Jets
`
`Apple Stock:
`Here's Why
`Earnings
`Disappointed
`
`What Can Apple
`Do to Please Wall
`Street?
`
`The data are positive and very consistent with the TERRAIN data and confirm the drug’s
`good activity and safety. Seizures are still there, but one in about 200 patients in STRIVE
`and two in about 200 in TERRAIN, but this looks like an acceptable risk/benefit and
`physicians have already been comfortable with it. We believe these data will help the drug
`get additional penetration in the prechemo setting, where we believe it will have the upper
`hand over [Johnson & Johnson’s ( JNJ )] Zytiga, mainly due to convenience. However,
`we believe that significant adoption in the earlier stages of the disease will require Phase 3
`data, which will take many years to read out.
`
`2
`
`3
`
`We believe Xtandi is a very active and welltolerated agent that would have the upper
`hand in the prechemo setting given Zytiga’s need for steroid use, so we project that
`Xtandi will eventually become the dominant player in these settings. However, given that
`Medivation shares this asset with Astellas Pharma [of Japan] (gets 50% of U.S. sales,
`lowteens to low20s royalties outside the U.S.), and despite projecting very generous
`Xtandi sales ($9 billion in 2026), we think Medivation shares already reflect the drug’s
`potential and we would look for a better entry point into this story.
`
`[We rate Medivation at Sector Perform.]
`
` Simos Simeonidis
`
`The opinions contained in Investors’ Soapbox in no way represent those of Barrons.com or Dow Jones &
`Company, Inc. The opinions expressed are those of the newsletter’s writer(s) or analysts at research firms.
`Some of the research firms have provided, or hope to provide, investmentbanking or other services to the
`companies being analyzed.
`
`To be considered for the Soapbox feature, please submit an original article of less than 1,000 words to
`research@barrons.com with “Soapbox Submission” in the headline. Please include your daytime telephone
`number and credentials.
`
`7/24/2015
`
`Xtandi Beats Casodex, Set to Top Zytiga Barron's
`
`http://online.barrons.com/articles/xtandibeatscasodexsettotopzytiga1428075331
`
`1/2
`
`WSJ
`
`WSJ LIVE
`
`MARKETWATCH
`
`PORTFOLIO
`
`DJX
`
`MORE
`
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`
`Comments? Email us at editors@barrons.com
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`Copyright ©2015 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
`
`7/24/2015
`
`Xtandi Beats Casodex, Set to Top Zytiga Barron's
`
`http://online.barrons.com/articles/xtandibeatscasodexsettotopzytiga1428075331
`
`2/2
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