A useful introduction to the study of the future is at futureswatch.org
`
`For a Dutchtranslation of this article by Johanne Teerink, click here.
`For a Spanish translation by Laura Mancini click here
`
`This was downloadedand greatly abridged from the World FuturesSociety at: http://www.wfs.org/newmeth.htm
`TPlease consult the original for footnotes and additional explanation and methods.
`
`Methods and Approachesof Futures Studies
`
`For all of human history people have tried to develop methodsfor predicting the future, from reading palms to
`gazingat the stars. But in recent years, primarily since World WarII, scientists, sociologists, operations
`researchers, and others, many of whom beganto call themselves futurists, have developed quantitative and
`qualitative methodsfor rationally anticipating the future. What separates futurists from the soothsayers who
`camebeforeis rationality, an awarenessthat the future cannot be known with absolute certainty, and the
`recognition that many different futures are possible, depending on decisions people makein the present.
`
`Generally, methods for studying the future do not pretendto be able to predict the future, although assessing
`the probabilities of alternative futures is an important aspect of futures studies methods. Rather, futures studies
`methodsare generally designed to help people better understand future possibilities in order to make better
`decisions today. Futurists often say they use their methods to reduce uncertainty, although it may be more
`accurate to say they are trying to manage uncertainty. Many decisions must be madetodayin the face of great
`uncertainty about what may happenin the future or even whatthe effects of today's decision might be in the
`future. Futures methods help people to deal with this uncertainty by clarifying what is known, what can be
`known,whatthe likely range of possibilities is, what the most desirable possibilities are, and how today's
`decisions may play out in each ofa variety of possible futures.
`
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`
`Futures research methodsare both descriptive and prescriptive. Descriptive methods, sometimesalso called
`extrapolative, attempt to describe objectively what the future will be or could be. Prescriptive methods, also
`called normative, focus on whatthe future should be. Prescriptive methodstry to help people clarify their
`values and preferences so they can developvisions of desirable futures. Once they understand what they
`would like the future to be, they're better able to take the appropriate steps to create that preferred future.
`Although muchhas been learned about futures studies methods since most were developedin the 50s and 60s,
`they remain somewhat amorphous. One can probably identify as many futures studies methodsas there are
`futurists, as each futurist developshis or her own style for looking ahead. But gradually, some consensus on
`methodologies is developing.
`
`Oneprinciple upon which mostfuturists would agree is the need to use multiple methods to address most
`futures problems. One will gain muchgreater insight by developing a futures research program that combines
`environmental scanning, trend assessment, delphi, and scenarios, for example, than one could achieve using
`any single method alone. Thus, although several of the more popular methods are described individually in the
`pagesthat follow, they are ideally used in various combinations.
`
`Anotherprinciple upon which someconsensusis developing is that futures research should be participatory:it
`should involve stakeholders and decision-makers directly in the process of developing forecasts or creating
`scenarios, because that is the only way to enable people to fully appreciate and perceive the range of possible
`futures.
`
`Although manyfuturist strive for objectivity, ultimately, most futures methodsrely heavily on subjective
`human judgment. But there are various tools one can use to augment individual human judgment. A method's
`
`1
`
`APPLE 1022
`
`APPLE 1022
`
`1
`
`

`

`value often lies in amalgamating the judgment of many people, enhancingcreativity, generating questions and
`ideas to produce different judgments, and demonstrating consistencies and inconsistencies among and within
`competing viewsofthe future.
`
`Trend Analysis: A Method Everyone Uses
`Trend analysis involves the use of any of a variety of techniques based onhistorical data. Trend analysis
`involves several processes. One processis spotting an emerging trend, that is, identifying a change in the
`world around us. For example, you maynotice that more and more people seem to be waiting until they are in
`their thirties to have children. You may havespotted a trend-i.e., that people are delaying child birth. Now you
`need to do someanalysis to see what the nature of the trend is and whatits implications might be. You could
`first look at historical data. What was the average age of womenhavingtheirfirst child in 1950? In 1955? and
`so on. Do yousee a pattern? Is the average age of womenatthe birth oftheir first child increasing?
`you are here
`2100
`
`population 1]
`1998
`Meadows, 1992, p.133
`
`World Oil: Duncan &|°* we Ce
`Youngquist, 1998
`
`Asdiscussed in Chapter 2, Principles of Futures Studies, futurists often divide the purposes of futures studies
`as imagining the possible, assessing the probable, and deciding on the preferable. Most futures studies
`methods focus on one or two ofthese goals, but notall three; thus one almost always will need multiple
`methodsif on is to work throughthe full range of futures studies. For instance, analyzing a present trend will
`give some information aboutthe possible and the probable, as we analyze whatwill happen if the trend
`continues or what may causethe trend to change, butit tells us relatively little about what welike to have
`happen. Visioning techniques maytell us something about the possible, as we brainstorm a range of
`alternatives, and the preferable, as we use visioning to imagine preferred futures, but it maytell us relatively
`little about the probabilities of our preferred futures without the help of other techniques.
`Futures studies can also be thought of as encompassingfive stages, although many individualprojects will
`focus on one or twostages and leavethe rest to other projects. The first stage is to identify and monitor
`change. The secondstageis to critique and analyze change. Thethird stage is to imagine alternatives. The
`fourth stage is to envision the preferred alternative. Andthe fifth and final stage is to plan and implementsteps
`to achieve the preferred vision.1
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`You might see the ageat birth of the first child is increasing by six months overeach five-year interval. That
`is, perhaps the average age was 21 in 1950, 21.5 in 1955, 22 in 1960, and so on until 1995 when the average
`age is 26. Then you might extrapolate the trend into the future, to predict that the average age would be 26.5 in
`2000 and 27 in the year 2005 and so on. Buttrend analysis requires that you do more than simply extrapolate
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`the trend forward. You have to ask, what is causing this trend, and will those causes continue indefinitely? Are
`there upperlimits to the trend? What other forces may affect the trend? At this point trend analysis relies more
`on subjective judgmentrather than objective extrapolation of historical data.
`
`Trend extrapolation is the moststraight-forward and objective componentoftrend analysis. Extrapolation
`essentially consists of taking historical data, fitting a curve to the data, and extending the curve into the future.
`Trend extrapolation assumesthat things will keep changing in the future the way they have been changing in
`the past. One simply extendsthe line or the curve forward to predict where things will be at a certain future
`time.
`If the population of a city is knownto be increasing at the rate of 2% a year, we assumethat it will continue to
`do so in the future, and we can use simple arithmetic to calculate what the population will be in five years. In
`other words, we can generate a forecast by observing a change throughtime in the character of something and
`projecting (extrapolating) that change into the future. In making a forecast, we naturally disregard short-term
`changesorfluctuations, such as the swelling of a city's population each morning as people cometo work.
`Whatis important is the longer-term change, thatis, the trend.
`Trend extrapolation is one of the most commonly used waysto generate a forecast. City planners, economists,
`demographers, and manyother specialists constantly extrapolate trends -- consciously or unconsciously--
`whenthey think aboutthe future. So, too, do ordinary people. Assumingthat the future will be like the past or
`that past changes will continue in the samedirection andrate is a perfectly sensible way to begin trying to
`understand the future. It can not, however, be the end of our endeavors, or we would end up with absurd
`results. For example, we might estimate that a child aged four has grownat the rate of five inches a year, and
`then calculate that this rate of growth meanshe will be more than 13 feet tall at the age of 34! We would not
`accept this forecast, because we know that humanbeings never grow that tall. Long before he reaches the age
`of 34, we forecast, his rate of growth will slow and eventually halt at a height that will probably be somewhere
`betweenfive feet and six and a half feet.
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`Cyclical Pattern Analysis
`Closely related to trend analysis is cyclical pattern analysis, see theTrends Timeline Graph. Trends Timeline in
`Flash. Many phenomenaappearto operate on cycles, and cyclical pattern analysis uses cyclic or recurring
`patterns (also referred to as waves, warps, bursts, surges, epochs, and episodes) as templates for anticipating
`future developments in various areas, such as public policy, the economy, etc. The "business cycle" is probably
`the best known example ofthis, in which a recession is followed by recovery, which leads to over-expansion
`of capacity, which in turn leads back to recession, and the cycle begins again. A similar, though muchlonger-
`range cycle, was proposed by Russian economist N.D. Kondratieff, who hypothesized that Western societies
`cycle through a pattern of long waves, characterized by recession-depression-revival-prosperity. The length of
`the overall cycle averages 56 years, with peaks in the occurring in 1800, 1856, 1916, and 1969.4 The
`Kondratieff Wave attracted great attention in the mid-1980s, when the cycle predicted depression, but has
`attracted less attention recently.
`Other cycles futurists have explored include productlife cycles, historical cycles, and generational cycles. See
`my paper on Sept 11 as a turningpoint in history.
`
`Environmental Scanning
`Environmental scanningrefers to the process of scanning the media (especially online media and media used
`heavily by youth) to identify emerging issues to enable organizationsor individuals to anticipate and respond
`to changesin the external environment.5 Scanning is meant to provide strategic intelligence to the strategic
`planningprocessby identifying changing trends and potential developments, monitoring them, forecasting
`their future pattern and assessing their impacts.6
`"The objective of scanningis to look over the widest range of possible factors and to identify connections with
`the organization's function or business, and especially to identify the significant positive or negative effects
`
`3
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`those could have on the organization andits activities. In general, the objectives in monitoring and scanning
`are to:
`* detect scientific, technical, economic, social, political and ecological events and other elements important to
`the company;
`* define the potential threats or opportunities or major potential changes for the organization that are implied
`by those events;
`* provide continuous awareness and evaluation of trends to guide planning and action choices;
`* inform managementand staff of the need for anticipatory action; minimize reaction; stimulate proaction;
`* alert managementandstaff to trends which are converging, diverging, speeding up, slowing down, or
`interacting.7
`Scanning maybeactive or passive. "Passive scanning is what most people do whenthey read journals or
`newspapers," writes James Morrison, an expert in and proponent of scanning.8 Active scanning is a more
`deliberate and conscious effort to review information from a broad array sources and subject areas.
`
`The best knownpractitioner of Environmental Scanning is probably Faith Popcorn.
`
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`Scenarios: Making Up Stories About the Future
`Scenario planningis the use of internally consistent narrative descriptions of possible states of affairs or
`developmentin the future. Usually, alternative scenarios are developed in order to allow people to
`conceptualize alternative futures andto clarify possible consequences of present developments and decisions.
`A scenario is simply a series of events that we imagine happeningin the future. Our everyday thinkingis filled
`with little ventures into the mysterious world of tomorrow, or next week, or next year. And these ventures are
`scenarios, though rarely as well developed as the elaborate scenarios prepared by professional researchers
`working for government agencies, the military, and commercial enterprises.
`A scenario begins when weask, "What would happen if such-and-such occurred?" For example, "What would
`happen if we wentto the theater on Saturday night?" Once this question is posed, we can begin to imaginethe
`various consequencesofthe event. First, certain preparations would be necessary for this event to occur; for
`example, there would be the need for transportation to the theater. In addition, if the event does occur, there
`will be additional consequences, such as being absent from homeat a time when weanticipate that a relative
`might come. In our minds, we may develop a large numberof scenarios in an effort to decide whether or not to
`go to the theater on Saturday night. We develop these scenarios intuitively and rarely bother to write them
`down. We may, however, discuss them with each other and with friends.
`Whatdoes a scenario do for us?
`Fundamentally, scenarios are tools for ordering our perceptions about alternative futures in which today's
`decisions mayplay out. First, it makes us aware of potential problems that might occur if we were to take the
`proposedaction. We can then (1) abandon the proposedaction or (2) prepare to take precautionsthat will
`minimize the problemsthat mightresult.
`
`Backcasting
`A method closely related to scenarios is backcasting. Backcasting is concerned with how desirable futures can
`be created, rather than what futures are likely to occur. In backcasting, one envisionsa desired future endpoint,
`and then works backward to determine what policy measures would be required to achieve such a future.
`Backcasting involvessix steps: determine objective, specify goals and constraints, describe the present system,
`specify exogenousvariables, undertake scenario analysis, and undertake impact analysis.12 The end result of a
`backcasting study is alternative imagesof the future, thoroughly analyzed as their feasibility and
`consequences.13
`
`Visioning
`Visioning has become one of the most popular and important futures studies methods, and a wide range of
`futurists have developed particularized techniques to help people develop their vision of a desirable future for
`
`4
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`themselves, their organization, or their community. (Visioning on larger scales, such as national or global
`scales, remainsrelatively undeveloped.) Generally, a visioning process will attempt to identify sources of
`pleasure and dismayin the past and present, will challenge people's current assumptions, will give people a
`sense of current drivers of change so they can imagine a range ofalternative futures, and facilitates a process
`of achieving some consensusofa preferred vision for the future. "Visioning is a process of making images of
`the future sufficiently real and compelling to act as 'magnets,' or goals to achieve, or 'spurs' to present action.
`Visioning can be donebyan individual, but it much more frequently takes place in futures workshops,"14
`writes Australian futurist Richard Slaughter.
`For example, Clem Bezold, who has been developing vision methodssince the early 1980s, identifies five
`stages in building a vision: 1) identification of problems, 2) identification past successes 3) identification of
`future desires; 4) identification of measurable goals; and 5) identification of resources to achieve those
`goals.15
`"If we can articulate what we want clearly enough, we will be better able to invent and create the future we
`mostdesire (our'preferred' future)," says Bezold. "A preferred future encompassesour ideals (usually in the
`form of a vision statement or description) and our sense of the best outcome that might be achievable. A vision
`is a compelling, inspiring statement of the preferred future that the authors and those who subscribe to the
`vision wantto create."16
`The visioning concept owesa heavy debtto the future workshop developed by Robert Jungk. Jungk describes
`the future workshopasfollows:
`Typically, a future workshop can be divided into a preparatory phase and three workshop phases. The
`preparatory phase involves deciding on the topic and makingthe practical arrangements . .. The workshop
`itself begins with the critique