`
`Before the
`Federal Communications Commission
`Washington, D.C. 20554
`
`WT Docket No. 09-66
`(Terminated)
`
`)))))))))
`
`In the Matter of
`
`Implementation of Section 6002(b) of the
`Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1993
`
`Annual Report and Analysis of Competitive
`Market Conditions With Respect to Mobile
`Wireless, Including Commercial Mobile Services
`
`Adopted: May 20, 2010
`
`Released: May 20, 2010
`
`FOURTEENTH REPORT
`
`By the Commission: Chairman Genachowski and Commissioners Copps and Clyburn issuing separate
`statements; Commissioners McDowell and Baker concurring and issuing separate statements.
`
`TABLE OF CONTENTS
`
`Heading
`
`Paragraph #
`
`I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ....................................................................................................................1
`II.
`INTRODUCTION..................................................................................................................................5
`III. MOBILE WIRELESS SERVICES: INDUSTRY STRUCTURE........................................................20
`A. Introduction....................................................................................................................................20
`B. Overview of Service Providers ......................................................................................................26
`1. Facilities-Based Providers.......................................................................................................26
`2. Resale/MVNO Providers.........................................................................................................31
`3. Narrowband Data Providers .................................................................................................... 35
`4. Mobile Satellite Service Providers ..........................................................................................36
`C. Horizontal Concentration...............................................................................................................39
`1. Number of Competitors...........................................................................................................40
`2. Concentration Measures ..........................................................................................................48
`D. Entry and Exit Conditions..............................................................................................................56
`1. Regulatory Entry and Exit Conditions.....................................................................................58
`2. Non-Regulatory Entry and Exit Conditions ............................................................................60
`E. Recent Entry and Exit ....................................................................................................................68
`1. Entry ........................................................................................................................................68
`2. Exit ..........................................................................................................................................74
`IV. MOBILE WIRELESS SERVICES: PROVIDER CONDUCT ............................................................85
`A. Price Rivalry: Developments in Mobile Service Pricing Plans......................................................87
`1. Postpaid Service ......................................................................................................................89
`2. Prepaid Service........................................................................................................................98
`B. Non-Price Rivalry ........................................................................................................................104
`1. Network Coverage and Technology Upgrades......................................................................105
`a. Service Provider Technology Deployments....................................................................111
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`b. Coverage by Technology Type.......................................................................................118
`c. Roaming..........................................................................................................................124
`2. Advertising, Marketing, Sales Expenditures, and Retailing..................................................127
`a. Advertising Expenditures................................................................................................128
`b. Marketing Campaigns.....................................................................................................132
`c. Retailing..........................................................................................................................134
`3. Differentiation in Mobile Wireless Handsets/Devices ..........................................................135
`4. Differentiation in Mobile Data Applications.........................................................................148
`V. MOBILE WIRELESS SERVICES: PERFORMANCE.....................................................................153
`A. Subscribership Levels ..................................................................................................................155
`1. Mobile Wireless Subscribers by Type of Service..................................................................156
`2. Mobile Wireless Subscribers by Pricing Plan .......................................................................163
`3. Mobile Wireless Subscribers by Age ....................................................................................165
`B. Penetration Rates Across Economic Areas (EAs) .......................................................................169
`C. Net Adds/Subscriber Growth.......................................................................................................171
`1.
`Industry-Wide Subscriber Net Adds......................................................................................171
`2. Mobile Wireless Net Adds by Pricing Plan...........................................................................173
`3. Mobile Wireless Net Adds by Service Provider....................................................................175
`D. Output and Usage Levels .............................................................................................................176
`1. Mobile Voice.........................................................................................................................176
`2. Mobile Messaging .................................................................................................................178
`3. Mobile Data Traffic (Non-Messaging)..................................................................................181
`E. Pricing Levels, Changes, and Trends...........................................................................................185
`1. Price Indicators......................................................................................................................185
`2. Wholesale Pricing..................................................................................................................194
`3.
`Intercarrier Roaming Rates and Revenue..............................................................................196
`F. Revenue........................................................................................................................................200
`G. Investment....................................................................................................................................208
`H. Profitability ..................................................................................................................................214
`1. Measuring Profitability..........................................................................................................215
`I. Network Quality...........................................................................................................................222
`J. Economic Impact of Mobile Wireless Services...........................................................................225
`VI. MOBILE WIRELESS SERVICES: CONSUMER BEHAVIOR.......................................................228
`A. Consumer Switching Costs ..........................................................................................................229
`1. Access to Information on Mobile Wireless Services.............................................................231
`2. Early Termination Fees (ETFs) .............................................................................................234
`3. Handsets, Handset Locking, and Handset Applications........................................................239
`4. Number Portability................................................................................................................242
`B. Churn as a Measure of Consumer Switching Costs.....................................................................244
`VII.INPUT AND DOWNSTREAM SEGMENTS OF THE MOBILE WIRELESS ECOSYSTEM.......249
`A. Input Segments.............................................................................................................................249
`1. Spectrum................................................................................................................................250
`a. Availability of Mobile Wireless Services Spectrum.......................................................251
`(i) Frequency Bands ......................................................................................................253
`(ii) Facilitating Access to Spectrum Among Multiple Providers ...................................260
`b. Analysis of Spectrum Holdings Overall .........................................................................265
`c. Analysis of Spectrum Holdings by Spectrum Characteristics ........................................268
`d. Competitive Effects of Spectrum Holdings ....................................................................281
`Infrastructure Facilities..........................................................................................................284
`a. Background.....................................................................................................................284
`b. Communications Tower Industry....................................................................................285
`c. Barriers to Cell Site Deployment ....................................................................................287
`
`2.
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`d. Competitive Effects of Infrastructure Costs and the Independent Communications
`Tower Industry................................................................................................................290
`3. Backhaul Facilities ................................................................................................................293
`a. Background.....................................................................................................................293
`b. Competitive Landscape...................................................................................................295
`c. The Growing Need for Backhaul Solutions and Alternatives.........................................297
`B. Downstream Segments.................................................................................................................299
`1. Mobile Wireless Handsets/Devices and Operating Systems .................................................299
`a. Handsets/Devices............................................................................................................300
`b. Key Factors Affecting Mobile Wireless Competition ....................................................311
`(i) Bundling of Wireless Service Subscriptions with the Purchase of Handsets...........312
`(ii) Exclusive Handset Arrangements.............................................................................316
`2. Mobile Applications ..............................................................................................................318
`3. Mobile Commerce.................................................................................................................333
`INTERMODAL COMPETITION ...............................................................................................339
`VIII.
`A. Voice Services..............................................................................................................................339
`B. Broadband Services......................................................................................................................341
`C. Wireless Local Area Networks and Wireless-Wireline Convergence .........................................343
`IX. URBAN-RURAL COMPARISONS..................................................................................................351
`X. INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS ..............................................................................................359
`A. ARPU...........................................................................................................................................360
`B. Average Revenue Per Minute ......................................................................................................361
`C. Usage............................................................................................................................................362
`D. Penetration Rates..........................................................................................................................363
`E. Concentration...............................................................................................................................364
`XI. CONCLUSION ..................................................................................................................................368
`XII.PROCEDURAL MATTERS..............................................................................................................369
`
`APPENDIX A: Spectrum for Mobile Wireless Services
`APPENDIX B: Mobile Wireless Network Technologies
`APPENDIX C: Tables
`APPENDIX D: Maps
`APPENDIX E: List of Commenters
`
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`Map 1: Mobile Wireless Competitors
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`I.
`
`EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
`1.
`In this Mobile Wireless Competition Report, we present our findings regarding the state
`of competition in the mobile services marketplace, pursuant to Congress’s instruction in section
`332(c)(1)(C) of the Communications Act. Promoting competition is a fundamental goal of the
`Commission’s policymaking. Competition has played and must continue to play an essential role in
`mobile – leading to lower prices and higher quality for American consumers, and producing new waves
`of innovation and investment in wireless networks, devices, and services.
`In this Mobile Wireless Competition Report to Congress (Fourteenth Report or Report),
`2.
`we incorporate several important new forms of analysis that reflect fundamental shifts in the mobile
`marketplace. For example, whereas previous reports analyzed Commercial Mobile Radio Service
`(CMRS) competition and discussed a variety of metrics – including number of providers, subscribers,
`usage, and prices – this Report integrates an analysis of CMRS into an analysis of all mobile wireless
`services, such as voice, messaging, and broadband. This Report also goes beyond previous reports in
`reflecting the transformative importance of mobile wireless broadband, which has resulted in a shift from
`devices that can place traditional phone calls to pocketable devices that can access the entire Internet.
`Because each of the interrelated segments of the mobile wireless ecosystem has the potential to affect
`competition, this Report analyzes competition across the entire mobile wireless ecosystem, including, for
`the first time, in-depth analyses of “upstream” and “downstream” market segments, such as infrastructure
`and devices.
`As described in this Mobile Wireless Competition Report, the mobile wireless ecosystem
`3.
`is sufficiently complex that any review or analysis of competitive market conditions must take into
`consideration a multitude of factors. As a result, rather than reaching an overarching, industry-wide
`determination with respect to whether there is “effective competition,” the Report complies with the
`statutory requirement by providing a detailed analysis of the state of competition that seeks to identify
`areas where market conditions appear to be producing substantial consumer benefits and provides data
`that can form the basis for inquiries into whether policy levers could produce superior outcomes.1 As the
`mobile wireless marketplace evolves, driven in particular by mobile wireless broadband and data usage,
`the Commission’s analyses and policies with respect to key inputs – such as spectrum – also must evolve
`in order to ensure a robust level of competition going forward.
`The Report – which reflects market conditions prevailing in 2008 and 20092 – finds
`4.
`evidence of several key trends in the mobile wireless industry:
`• Maturation of the Mobile Voice Segment. As of the end of 2008, 90 percent of Americans had a
`mobile wireless device, and Americans used these devices to talk for an average of 709 minutes
`each month. While usage statistics have generally increased over time, this year marks the first
`instance of reduced (though still substantial) voice usage, perhaps due to increased reliance on
`text and multimedia messaging. Voice revenues stayed relatively steady compared to past
`periods, with average revenue per user (ARPU) slightly decreasing but revenue per minute
`(RPM) slightly increasing.
`Transition to a Data-Centric Market. Data traffic has grown significantly, due to the increased
`adoption of smartphones and data consumption per device. Indeed, with overall revenue per
`
`•
`
`
`
`1 For a more detailed discussion of our analysis of effective competition, as required by Section 332(c) of the
`Communications Act, see paragraphs 11-16 infra.
`2 Where possible, the Report uses the most current data available, including network coverage data from American
`Roamer from the fourth quarter of 2009. In other instances, particularly where year-end metrics are discussed or
`annual comparisons are made, the Report uses year-end 2008 data. See Section II, Introduction, infra, for an
`additional discussion of data timeframes.
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`mobile customer generally remaining flat the past several years, revenue from newer data services
`is replacing revenue from traditional services.
`• Proliferation of Devices and Applications. Handset manufacturers have introduced a growing
`number of smartphones that provide mobile Internet access and other data services, and use
`operating systems that provide many of the functionalities of personal computers. The four
`nationwide providers launched about 67 new smartphones in 2008 and 2009, based upon several
`different platforms (e.g., Apple iPhone, Android, BlackBerry, Palm, and Windows Mobile). The
`Android and iPhone platforms have been particularly successful in creating an entire ecosystem
`of applications and services. As of December 2009, there were over 100,000 applications on the
`Apple App Store, and 15,000 on the Android Market.
`• Continued Industry Concentration. Over the past five years, concentration has increased in the
`provision of mobile wireless services. The two largest providers, AT&T, Inc. (AT&T) and
`Verizon Wireless, have 60 percent of both subscribers and revenue, and continue to gain share
`(accounting for 12.3 million net additions in 2008 and 14.1 million during 2009). The two next-
`largest providers, T-Mobile USA (T-Mobile) and Sprint Nextel Corp. (Sprint Nextel), had a
`combined 1.7 million net loss in subscribers during 2008 and gained 827,000 subscribers during
`2009. One widely-used measure of industry concentration indicates that concentration has
`increased 32 percent since 2003 and 6.5 percent in the most recent year for which data is
`available.
`• Robust Capital Investment but Declining Relative to Industry Size. Providers continue to invest
`significant capital in networks, despite the recent economic downturn. One source reports capital
`investment at around $25 billion in both 2005 and 2008, while another shows that capital
`investment declined from around $25 billion to around $20 billion during the same period and
`that investment during the first half of 2009 was $8.9 billion. Because industry revenue has
`continued to grow, both sources show that capital investment has declined as a percentage of
`industry revenue over the same period (from 20 percent to 14 percent).3
`• Role of Spectrum for Mobile Broadband. Especially as mobile wireless data usage grows,
`spectrum becomes an increasingly pivotal input. In particular, lower-frequency spectrum
`possesses superior propagation characteristics that create certain advantages in the provision of
`mobile wireless broadband service, especially in rural areas. Lower-frequency spectrum
`potentially allows for a higher quality of coverage with fewer cell sites, when compared to other
`frequency bands used to provide mobile services. Conversely, higher-frequency spectrum may be
`effective for increasing capacity, particularly within smaller, more densely-populated geographic
`areas. Recent auctions reflect that lower frequency bands are more highly valued than higher
`frequencies. A significant portion of spectrum below 1 GHz is held by the two largest providers:
`67 percent of the 700 MHz band, and 91 percent of the Cellular band, based on megahertz-POPs
`(MHz-POPs).4
`
`Selected developments and key metrics with respect to the current state of mobile wireless competition
`are highlighted below:
`Number of Providers & Network Deployment
`
`
`
`3 All dollar figures included in this Report have not been adjusted for inflation (i.e., they are nominal dollars) unless
`stated otherwise.
`4 “MHz-POPs” refers to the amount of spectrum in a given license or set of frequencies multiplied by the population
`covered by the geographic area of the spectrum license. For example, the MHz-POPs of a 20 megahertz license
`covering a geographic area with a population of 1,000 would be 20,000.
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`For the third consecutive Report, the Commission has conducted an analysis of service provider coverage
`by census block, based on data from American Roamer5 and population data from the 2000 Census.6
`Mobile Voice Providers. The coverage analysis suggests that approximately 284 million people, or 99.6
`percent of the U.S. population, are served by one or more mobile voice providers. Approximately 281
`million people, or 98.6 percent of the population, are served by at least two mobile voice providers.
`Approximately 273 million people, or 95.8 percent of the population, are served by at least three mobile
`voice providers.
`Mobile Broadband Providers. Approximately 280 million people, or 98.1 percent of the U.S. population,
`are served by one or more mobile broadband providers,7 according to the coverage analysis.
`Approximately 255 million people, or 89.5 percent of the U.S. population, are served by two or more
`mobile broadband providers. Approximately 217 million people, or 76.1 percent of the population, are
`served by at least three mobile broadband providers. During 2008 and 2009, the four nationwide mobile
`wireless service providers (AT&T, Verizon Wireless, Sprint Nextel and T-Mobile), as well as other
`mobile operators, continued to expand service into new markets and to upgrade their networks with
`mobile broadband technologies. They also announced plans to deploy 4G network technologies.
`
`
`
`5 We note that the American Roamer analysis likely overstates the coverage actually experienced by consumers,
`because American Roamer reports advertised coverage as reported to it by many mobile wireless service providers,
`each of which uses a different definition of coverage. The data do not expressly account for factors such as signal
`strength, bit rate, or in-building coverage, and they may convey a false sense of consistency across geographic areas
`and service providers. Nonetheless, the analysis is useful because it provides a quantitative baseline that can be
`compared across network types, technologies, and carriers, over time. Connecting America: The National
`Broadband Plan, FCC, at 39 (Chapter 4) (rel. Mar. 16, 2010), available at www.broadband.gov (National
`Broadband Plan). We also recognize that an analysis of coverage at the nationwide level provides only a general
`benchmark. A nationwide average will mask regional disparities in coverage and create an overall picture that does
`not capture variances across the country. See Section III.C.1, Number of Competitors, infra.
`6 Unless otherwise noted, population data in the Report is taken from U.S. Census Bureau (Census Bureau). For
`purposes of calculating numbers on broader geographic bases, such as the nationwide penetration rate, we use
`Census Bureau population estimates as of July 1, 2008. See infra note 473. For purposes of calculating the extent
`of service provision based on census blocks, we use 2000 Census population figures because that is the Census
`Bureau’s most recent data about population at the census block level.
`7 For purposes of this Report, “mobile broadband” refers to mobile Internet access and other data services provided
`using Third Generation (3G) and Fourth Generation (4G) mobile network technologies, CDMA EV-DO,
`WCDMA/HSPA, and WiMAX. Therefore, this coverage analysis estimates the U.S. population, based on census
`blocks, covered by these technologies. See Section IV.B.1, Network Coverage and Technology Upgrades and
`Appendix B, Mobile Wireless Network Technologies, infra, for an additional discussion.
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`3G/4G Deployment by Selected Mobile Wireless Service Providers
`3G Deployment
`4G Deployment
`
`Service
`Provider
`AT&T
`
`Verizon
`Wireless
`
`As of October 2009, HSPA network
`covered 230 million POPs in more than 350
`metropolitan areas.
`As of mid-2009, EV-DO network covered
`284 million POPs.
`
`Plans LTE trials in 2010 and deployment
`in 2011.
`
`Expects to launch LTE in 25-30 markets
`in 2010 and to cover 285 million POPs by
`2013.
`As of September 2009, WiMAX network
`covered over 10 million POPs, expected
`to cover 120 million POPs by end of
`2010.
`Ownership interest in Clearwire and
`reselling Clearwire WiMAX service.
`No U.S.-specific plans.
`
`Clearwire Not applicable.
`
`As of August 2009, EV-DO network
`Sprint
`covered 271 million POPs.
`Nextel
`T-Mobile As of August 2009, HSPA network covered
`121 million POPs, expected to cover 200
`million POPs by year-end 2009.
`
`The following table, again using data from the census block coverage analysis based on American
`Roamer data, depicts the growth in population coverage for mobile wireless broadband service over the
`past year:
`
`Mobile Wireless Broadband Network Population Coverage,
`Selected Facilities-Based Providers
`
`Service
`Provider
`
`AT&T
`Verizon Wireless
`Sprint Nextel
`T-Mobile
`Alltel
`Leap
`US Cellular
`
`Covered POPs
`November 2008
`(millions)
`189.0
`241.7
`218.9
`88.4
`57.7
`19.7
`13.1
`
`Covered POPs
`November 2009
`(millions)
`212.3
`266.7
`226.9
`133.9
`--
`79.2
`26.6
`
`Subscribers and Net Adds
`With wireless market penetration approaching 90 percent as of the end of 2008, overall wireless industry
`growth has slowed down. At the end of 2008, based upon Numbering Resource Utilization Forecast
`(NRUF) data, there were over 277 million mobile wireless subscribers in the United States, up from 263
`million at the end of 2007. As of the end of 2008, there were 25.1 million mobile wireless high-speed
`Internet access subscribers and 86 million mobile high-speed-capable devices in use in the United States.
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`Year
`
`1999
`2000
`2001
`2002
`2003
`2004
`2005
`2006
`2007
`2008
`
`Subscribers
`
`Mobile Wireless Subscribership
`Subscribers -
`Penetration Rate Penetration Rate
`Increase from
`– Percent
`Previous Year
`Increase from
`Previous Year
`(percent)
`(percent)
`(millions)
`(millions)
`NRUF
`CTIA NRUF
`CTIA
`NRUF
`CTIA
`NRUF*
`CTIA
`n/a
`32%
`n/a
`23%
`n/a
`16.8
`n/a
`86
`n/a
`39%
`n/a
`21%
`n/a
`23.4
`n/a
`109.5
`45%
`45%
`n/a
`16%
`n/a
`18.9
`128.5
`128.4
`49%
`49%
`9%
`9%
`13.3
`12.4
`141.8
`140.9
`54%
`55%
`10%
`12%
`18.8
`18
`160.6
`158.7
`62%
`62%
`15%
`14%
`24.1
`23.4
`184.7
`182.1
`71%
`70%
`15%
`13%
`28.3
`25.8
`213
`207.9
`80%
`78%
`13%
`11%
`28.8
`25.1
`241.8
`233
`86%
`85%
`7%
`9%
`21.2
`22.4
`263
`255.4
`90%
`89%
`5%
`5%
`14.6
`14.9
`277.6
`270.3
`*NRUF data is not available for the calendar years prior to 2001.
`
`Industry net new subscriber additions (or “net adds”) totaled between 14.5 and 15 million during 2008, a
`33 percent drop from the 2007 net additions.
`Net adds have not been distributed evenly among major service providers. The two largest providers
`garnered 12.3 million net new subscribers during 2008 and 14.1 million during 2009, while the two next-
`largest providers combined lost 1.7 million subscribers during 2008 and gained 827,000 subscribers
`during 2009.
`
`Service Provider
`
`2009 Net
`Additions
`(Loss)
`
`Net Additions by Service Provider
`2009
`Subscribers
`2008
`2008 Net
`Subscribers
`Percent
`Year-End
`Percent
`Additions
`Year-End
`Increase
`2009
`Increase
`(Loss)
`2008
`(Loss)
`(Thousands)
`(Loss)
`(Thousands)
`10.5%
`8,111
`6,785
`77,009
`9.7%
`85,120
`AT&T
`26.6%
`19,193
`5,558
`72,056
`8.4%
`91,249
`Verizon Wireless**
`(0.4%)
`(205)
`(4,667)
`48,338
`(8.8%)
`48,133
`Sprint Nextel
`3.2%
`1,032
`2,973
`32,758
`10.0%
`33,790
`T-Mobile
`--
`--
`(181)
`13,219
`(1.4%)
`--
`Alltel
`(0.9%)
`(55)
`74
`6,196
`1.2%
`6,141
`US Cellular
`23.7%
`1,273
`1,404
`5,367
`35.4%
`6,640
`MetroPCS
`28.8%
`1,109
`981
`3,845
`34.3%
`4,954
`Leap
`**Verizon Wireless’s 2009 subscriber figures include subscribers added as a result of the Alltel merger. If
`subscribers from the Alltel acquisition were excluded, Verizon Wireless’s “organic” net adds for 2009 would total
`approximately 5.97 million, an increase of 8.3 percent.
`Churn
`During the past year, churn has increased slightly from 1.9 percent to around 2.1 percent per month, with
`pre-paid churn rates significantly higher than post-paid churn rates. Churn rates of the two largest
`national service providers are half the rates for the next two largest providers.
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`Comparative Churn
`
`6.0%
`
`5.0%
`
`4.0%
`
`3.0%
`
`2.0%
`
`1.0%
`
`0.0%
`
`Monthly Churn %
`
`2005
`Post-paid churn
`
`2007
`2006
`Pre-paid/reseller churn
`
`2Q 2009
`2008
`Total (Blended) Churn
`
`Source: Bernstein Research
`Annual Churn is an average for each of the four quarters
`
`National Operators: Blended Churn
`(Reported)
`
`3.5%
`
`3.0%
`
`2.5%
`
`2.0%
`
`1.5%
`
`1.0%
`
`0.5%
`
`0.0%
`
`Monthly Churn Percentage
`
`2006
`
`2005
`AT&T Mobility
`Verizon Wireless
`
`2007
`Sprint Nextel
`Industry Wtd. Average
`
`2008
`T-Mobile
`
`2Q 2009
`
`Source: Bernstein Research
`Annual Churn is an average for each of the four quarters. Verizon Wireless is combined with Alltel churn.
`Usage
`In 2008, wireless voice usage per subscriber declined for the first time in 11 years. At the same time, use
`of text messaging and other wireless data services increased over the previous year. The decline in voice
`minutes-of-use, coupled with the increase in data use, suggests that although only about 40 percent of
`consumers currently use data services, these consumers may be substituting data services, such as text
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`messaging, for traditional voice services. The following data describe top-line usage trends for specific
`service segments:
`Voice: Average minutes-of-use per subscriber per month (MOUs) declined to about 708 minutes
`for