Amgen's quick Aimovig launch boosts blockbuster hopes for Lilly, Teva and Alder: analy...
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`Amgen's quick Aimovig launch boosts blockbuster hopes
`for Lilly, Teva and Alder: analyst
`
`by Eric Sagonowsky | Aug 20, 2018 11:43am
`
`https://www.fiercepharma.com/pharma/amgen-s-quick-aimovig-launch-has-implications-f...
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`5/30/2019
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`EX2085
`Eli Lilly & Co. v. Teva Pharms. Int'l GMBH
`IPR2018-01425
`
`1
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`Amgen's quick Aimovig launch boosts blockbuster hopes for Lilly, Teva and Alder: analy...
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`Page 2 of 5
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`An analyst predicts Amgen and Novartis' Aimovig will generate $2.9 billion in 2025. (Amgen)
`
`Amgen's migraine prevention drug Aimovig, just approved in May, is riding a rising wave of early demand—and
`that's a good thing, not just for Amgen and its partner Novartis, but for other forthcoming drugs in the CGRP
`class, an analyst said Monday.
`
`Aimovig’s rollout trends "bode well for follow-on entrants” from Eli Lilly, Teva and Alder BioPharmaceuticals,
`Leerink Partners analyst Geoffrey Porges wrote in a note to clients. The analyst and his team upped their CGRP
`revenue forecasts and now predict that each of the drugs will break the blockbuster barrier by 2025—and the
`entire class will be worth $6.9 billion.
`
`The analysts predict Aimovig will generate $2.87 billion in global sales, followed by Lilly’s galcanezumab with
`$1.59 billion, Teva’s fremanezumab with $1.24 billion and Alder’s eptinezumab with $1.19 billion. Of the $2.87
`billion figure for Aimovig, Porges predicts Amgen will capture $2 billion while its partner Novartis nets the
`remaining amount.
`
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`For its market analysis, the team used IMS prescription data and talked with headache specialists at MEDACorp,
`a Leerink network of thousands of healthcare professionals. In all, the team noted that Aimovig is “launching
`strongly,” but that most patients are still on a two-month free drug program offered by Amgen. Plus, Amgen has a
`weeks-long processing backlog that’s preventing patients from starting their treatment right away, according to
`the note.
`
`On reimbursement, Porges notes that Aimovig secured a position on Express Script’s national formulary, and
`some other large payers are reimbursing for the drug if a patient has failed at least one preventative option.
`
`RELATED: Amgen, Novartis 'overwhelmed' by early interest in migraine drug Aimovig: expert
`
`“Given the sizeable pool of patients that has tried other medicines for migraine prevention, and the dearth of new
`alternatives in the past couple of years, nearly all of the individuals being considered for Aimovig are immediately
`meeting these modest prior authorization criteria,” he wrote.
`
`https://www.fiercepharma.com/pharma/amgen-s-quick-aimovig-launch-has-implications-f...
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`5/30/2019
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`Amgen's quick Aimovig launch boosts blockbuster hopes for Lilly, Teva and Alder: analy...
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`All together, the CGRP migraine prevention drugs market will be worth $4.5 billion in 2022 and $6.9 billion in
`2025, according to the Leerink team.
`
`RELATED: Amgen's Aimovig won its first-in-class migraine nod. Will payers step up to the $6,900 price?
`
`Amgen and its partner Novartis won their first-in-class approval for Aimovig back in May. After the launch, the
`drugmakers set the price at $6,900, which Express Scripts characterized as “responsible.” Cost watchdog ICER,
`which routinely hits out at pharma pricing, endorsed Aimovig’s sticker price as well.
`
`Since the approval, analysts have detailed fast uptake for the blockbuster candidate. Aside from Porges’ Monday
`note, an expert previously told Credit Suisse Analyst Vamil Divan that the companies have been “overwhelmed”
`trying to keep up with the wave of initial interest.
`
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