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`ViewPoints: Biogen Idec struggling to cope with
`Tecfidera demand suggests analyst
`
`Created 06/12/2013 - 11:11
`
`Following speculation last week that prescription numbers for Biogen Idec's Tecfidera were being artificially
`boosted by some double counting, Sanford C. Bernstein analyst Geoffrey Porges speculated in a note to
`investors on Tuesday that the launch is actually stronger than script numbers indicate.
`
`The reason — Biogen Idec simply cannot cope with demand for the product, which is on track to be the biggest
`new drug launch of 201 3 by a significant margin.
`
`Insight, Analysis & Opinion
`
`Based on a survey of 50 moderate and high prescribing US-based neurologists, Porges suggests that around 50
`percent of patients prescribed Tecfidera are still waiting for benefit verification and are therefore unlikely to be
`reported as filled prescriptions for the drug.
`
`Porges adds that ”most respondents suggest that their initial experience with the drug has matched or exceeded
`their expectations and referrals for treatment are coming from both patient and physician initiated use. Unlike
`prior launches, a larger majority of patients started on Tecfidera are switchers from other therapies (mainly
`inj ectable ABCRs)." Furthermore, Bernstein's survey indicates that drug discontinuation rates for Tecfidera are
`low; 79 percent of respondents report that all patients remain on the drug since launch.
`
`Some may feel that Biogen Idec has underinvested in the launch; logistical delays with regards to patient access
`and reimbursement programmes are worse that those previously experienced with other multiple sclerosis drugs,
`suggest two thirds of respondents, which Porges believes could weigh on short-term performance of the drug.
`
`This may be splitting hairs, given the performance of Tecfidera to date and suggestions that revenues could now
`comfortably exceed $500 million for 2013. Suggestions that Tecfidera demand is higher than script numbers
`indicate should also help to offset recent concerns about double counting and provide a more robust outlook for
`Biogen Idec as it looks to launch Tecfidera in Europe — hopefully with enhanced data protection -
`see ViewPoints: Biogen looks to firm up EU data exclusivity for Tecfidera — delays launch [1].
`
`See also:
`
`Physician Views Poll Results — European launch of Biogen ldec's Tecfidera highly anticipated by
`neurologists [2]
`
`ViewPoints: Data remain early, but Tecfidera "crushing" laimches of other oral MS treatments [3]
`
`Spotlight On: Five key facts about Biogen Idec's Tecfidera [4]
`
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