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`|N'.'ESTCR:3‘ SOAPECIX Al .1
`
`Xtandi Beats Casodex, Set to Top Zytiga
`Medivation’s prostate-cancer drug is generating strong data but the stock already reflects much of the potential.
`
`yemaii gm": q DCumment.s
`
`lfgorderiii.-prints n E
`
`A
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`A
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`fl A|1T|cLE FREE PASS E;‘é:’|}'Jv°a“;L'h'5';=|§‘3Dz"°°I°m“’|'enl
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`As expected, Medivation's Xtandi handily beatAstraZeneca’s Casodex in the STRIVE
`prostate—cancer study, too.
`
`Median progression-free survival (PFS) of 19.4 for Medivation's (ticker: MDVN ) Xtandi
`versus 5.7 months for AstraZeneca’s ( fl ) Casodex in the STRIVE study, versus
`15.7 versus 5.8 months (Xtandi versus Casodex) in the TERRAIN study. The longer
`PFS in STRIVE versus TERRAIN is expected, given that STRIVE included both MO and
`M1 (both nonmetastatic and metastatic) patients (396 patients, all U.S.), while
`TERRAIN included only M1 (metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (CRPC))
`patients (375 patients in North America and Europe).
`Median time on treatment was 14.7 versus 8.4 months for Xtandi versus Casodex,
`respectively, and 11.7 versus 5.5 months in TERRAIN. Adverse events (AEs)were
`reported in 29.4% versus 28.3% (Xtandi versus Casodex) in STRIVE, and 31.1%
`versus 23.3% in TERRAIN. G3 or higher cardiac AEs were 5.1% versus 4.0% (Xtandi
`versus Casodex), in line with 5.5% versus 2.1% in TERRAIN. There was one seizure in
`the Xtandi ann versus none in the Casodex arm, versus twoforXtandi and none for
`Casodex, in TERRAIN.
`The data are positive and very consistent with the TERRAIN data and oonlimi the
`drug's good activity and safety. Seizures are still there, but one in about 200 patients in
`STRIVE and two in about 200 in TERRAIN, bi.it this looks like an acoeptable risklbenelit
`and physicians have already been comfortable with it. We believe these data will help
`the drug get additional penetration in the pre-chemo setting, where we believe it will
`have the upper hand over [Johnson & Johnson's ( @ )] Zytiga, mainly due to
`convenience. However, we believe that significant adoption in the earlier stages of the
`
`disease will require Phase 3 data, which will take many years to read out.
`We believe Xtandi is a very active and well-tolerated agent that would have the upper
`hand in the pre-chemo setting given Zytiga’s need for steroid use, so we project that
`Xtandi will eventually become the dominant player in these settings. However, given
`that Medivation shares this asset with Astellas Phamia [of Japan] (gets 50% of U.S.
`sales, low-teens to low-205 royalties outside the U.S.), and despite projecting very
`generous Xtandi sales ($9 billion in 2026), we think Medivation shares already rellect
`the drug’s potential and we would look for a better entry point into this story.
`
`[We rate Medivation at Sector Perfonn.]
`
`" SIm°5 Simeon’-dis
`The opinions contained in Investors‘ Soapbox in no way represent those olBarroi1s,corri or Dow Jones &
`Company, Inc, The opinions expressed are those ot the newsletters writer(s) or analysts at research firms
`Some of the research firms have provided, or hope to provide, investment-banking or otrierservices to the
`companies being analyzed
`To be considered for the Soapbox feature, please submit an original article of less than 1,000 words to
`resean:h@barrons corn with ‘Soapbox Submission” in the headline Please include your daytime telephone
`number and credentials
`
`.
`'
`'
`—
`.
`comments‘? E mail us at editors@barrons com
`
`fismii gm": q |JCnmment.s
`
`Il:EDrderReprint§ n E 3‘
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`
`News QUOIES Con‘pa“ies Videos
`
`SEARCH
`
`. EDITION
`
`HOME
`
`MAGAZINE '
`
`DAILY '
`
`INVESTING IDEAS '
`
`TOP ADVISORS '
`
`MARKET DATA '
`
`PAID ADVISGR
`DRECTORY
`
`|N'.'ESTCR:3‘ SOAPECIX Al .1
`
`Xtandi Beats Casodex, Set to Top Zytiga
`Medivation’s prostate-cancer drug is generating strong data but the stock already reflects much of the potential.
`
`yemaii gm": q DCumment.s
`
`lfgorderiii.-prints n E
`
`A
`
`A
`
`fl A|1T|cLE FREE PASS E;‘é:’|}'Jv°a“;L'h'5';=|§‘3Dz"°°I°m“’|'enl
`April 3 2Ei‘lf
`
`Subscribe Now [or lull access
`
`RBC capital Markets
`As expected, Medivation's Xtandi handily beatAstraZeneca’s Casodex in the STRIVE
`prostate—cancer study, too.
`
`Median progression-free survival (PFS) of 19.4 for Medivation's (ticker: MDVN ) Xtandi
`versus 5.7 months for AstraZeneca’s ( fl ) Casodex in the STRIVE study, versus
`15.7 versus 5.8 months (Xtandi versus Casodex) in the TERRAIN study. The longer
`PFS in STRIVE versus TERRAIN is expected, given that STRIVE included both MO and
`M1 (both nonmetastatic and metastatic) patients (396 patients, all U.S.), while
`TERRAIN included only M1 (metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (CRPC))
`patients (375 patients in North America and Europe).
`Median time on treatment was 14.7 versus 8.4 months for Xtandi versus Casodex,
`respectively, and 11.7 versus 5.5 months in TERRAIN. Adverse events (AEs)were
`reported in 29.4% versus 28.3% (Xtandi versus Casodex) in STRIVE, and 31.1%
`versus 23.3% in TERRAIN. G3 or higher cardiac AEs were 5.1% versus 4.0% (Xtandi
`versus Casodex), in line with 5.5% versus 2.1% in TERRAIN. There was one seizure in
`the Xtandi ann versus none in the Casodex arm, versus twoforXtandi and none for
`Casodex, in TERRAIN.
`The data are positive and very consistent with the TERRAIN data and oonlimi the
`drug's good activity and safety. Seizures are still there, but one in about 200 patients in
`STRIVE and two in about 200 in TERRAIN, bi.it this looks like an acoeptable risklbenelit
`and physicians have already been comfortable with it. We believe these data will help
`the drug get additional penetration in the pre-chemo setting, where we believe it will
`have the upper hand over [Johnson & Johnson's ( @ )] Zytiga, mainly due to
`convenience. However, we believe that significant adoption in the earlier stages of the
`
`disease will require Phase 3 data, which will take many years to read out.
`We believe Xtandi is a very active and well-tolerated agent that would have the upper
`hand in the pre-chemo setting given Zytiga’s need for steroid use, so we project that
`Xtandi will eventually become the dominant player in these settings. However, given
`that Medivation shares this asset with Astellas Phamia [of Japan] (gets 50% of U.S.
`sales, low-teens to low-205 royalties outside the U.S.), and despite projecting very
`generous Xtandi sales ($9 billion in 2026), we think Medivation shares already rellect
`the drug’s potential and we would look for a better entry point into this story.
`
`[We rate Medivation at Sector Perfonn.]
`
`" SIm°5 Simeon’-dis
`The opinions contained in Investors‘ Soapbox in no way represent those olBarroi1s,corri or Dow Jones &
`Company, Inc, The opinions expressed are those ot the newsletters writer(s) or analysts at research firms
`Some of the research firms have provided, or hope to provide, investment-banking or otrierservices to the
`companies being analyzed
`To be considered for the Soapbox feature, please submit an original article of less than 1,000 words to
`resean:h@barrons corn with ‘Soapbox Submission” in the headline Please include your daytime telephone
`number and credentials
`
`.
`'
`'
`—
`.
`comments‘? E mail us at editors@barrons com
`
`fismii gm": q |JCnmment.s
`
`Il:EDrderReprint§ n E 3‘
`
`Latest in Investors‘ Soapbox AM
`
`1 - 0- Intel’s Q3 to See Boost From Notebook Trends
`
`2 - 0' Two Top U.S. Airlines Picks for Safety
`
`3 - 0- Three Picks to Play Oil Pipelines
`
`4 - 0" Storage Stocks Dragged Down by Legacies
`
`5 - 0- ExxonMobil, Chevron Strive for Balance
`
`jobs-ohiiicom
`
`-
`D h | 0 has the Iugstics
`.
`to reduce yourtime in market to
`Europe
`5 days_m. mum‘
`
`I
`
`I0
`
`_
`_
`I.earII What UIIIU can (ID IOT IJIISIIIQSS
`
`Most Popular
`1.
`._Bank stocks to BuyAs Sactnr Joins
`Rally
`
`2 . O" Berkshire Hathaway a Buy Amid Solid
`Ea.1'ni.ngs
`
`3 - 0'Allergan Selloff Makes for Great
`Buying Opporhlmty
`-
`7
`4 - 0- Billionaire Bears' Gross Gundlach
`Fear :1 Rout
`
`5 . 0- Fivg Pi;-ks Al-ujd Sufi Oi] P1-[(535
`SEE FULL LIST
`
`Latest Market videos
`
`1
`
`China Aijns for
`Gold in Brazil
`Power Deal
`
`Bank Stocks to
`Buy; Vtfhy Monro is
`Faumg
`
`Ti.I.rkey's Erdogan
`B cks R turn f
`Diath Psnahyo
`
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