Equity Research
`North America
`
`United States of America
`
`Pharmaceuticals, Specialty
`
`Marc Goodman
`+1 (1)212 761 8403
`Marc.Goodman@morganstanley.com
`Gary Nachman
`+1 (1)212 761 6389
`Gary.Nachman@morganstanley.com
`Amit Bhalla
`+1 (1)212 761 8043
`Amit.Bhalla@morganstanley.com
`OVERWEIGHT
` STOCK RATING
`$88.05
`Price (April 30, 2004)
`$100
`Price Target
`$92.61 - 69.65
`52-Week Range
`Stock ratings are relative to the analyst's industry (or
`industry team's) coverage universe.
`
` GICS SECTOR
`US Strategist Weight
`S&P 500 Weight
`
`HEALTH CARE
`15.3%
`13.8%
`
` WHAT'S CHANGED
`Change of Target Price
`
`
`
`$92 to $100
`
`Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do
`business with companies covered in its
`research reports. As a result, investors
`should be aware that the firm may have
`a conflict of interest that could affect the
`objectivity of this report. Investors
`should consider this report as only a
`single factor in making their investment
`decision.
`
`Comment
`
`Page 1
`
`Allergan Inc.
`
`Reuters: AGN.N Bloomberg: AGN US NYSE: AGN
`
` Analysis of Sales/Earnings
`
`April 30, 2004
`
`The Well-Oiled Machine
`Delivers Again
`• AGN reported 1Q04 operating EPS of $0.60, a penny above our estimate
`The quality of the quarter was very high (pharma sales ex-currency
`were +17%), in our view. A strong top line and a strong gross margin
`(pharma only of 84.5%) drove the upside, even with significantly
`higher spending in the quarter.
`• AGN's key products are performing well
`Botox, Lumigan and Restasis, the key growth drivers for AGN, all
`posted strong numbers. The only shortfall in the quarter was in
`Tazorac/Avage, which is not as critical a growth driver for AGN and
`not a significant concern to us.
`• 2004 guidance remains unchanged and we're not changing our EPS estimates
`2004 EPS guidance remains $2.72-2.75 and absorbs a higher tax rate
`for the year and a reduction in Tazorac/Avage sales guidance for 2004
`of $15MM. 2Q04 guidance was basically in line with our forecasts.
`• We are increasing our price target for AGN to $100 from $92
`This is based on a P/E multiple of 30x (up from 27x), or a PEG of 1.3x
`(up from 1.2x) our 2005E earnings of $3.35. We maintain our
`Overweight rating for AGN and continue to believe it has the most
`attractive product pipeline for a company relative to its size in the
`pharma industry.
`• We maintain our In-Line view of the specialty pharma industry
`We still believe this is a year of investment with limited upside to
`earnings expectations. We do believe, however, that positive long-
`term trends remain in place for the group.
`
`Fiscal Year Ends (Dec 31)
`EPS ($)
`Prior EPS Ests. ($)
`First Call Consensus ($)
`P/E
`P/E Rel. to (local index) (%)
`Price/Book
`EV/EBITDA
`Yield (%)
`Market Cap ($mn)
`Enterprise Value ($mn)
`Debt/Cap (12/03) (%)
`Return on Equity (12/03) (%)
`LT Est EPS Growth ('yy - 'yy) (%)
`P/E to Growth
`Shares Outstanding (mn)
`e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates
`
`2003
`2.31
`–
`2.31
`38.1
`–
`12.6
`24.9
`–
`11,710.7
`12,446.2
`43.5
`14.6
`22.5
`1.70
`133.0
`
`2005e
`3.35
`–
`3.33
`26.3
`–
`7.2
`17.5
`–
`
`2004e
`2.75
`–
`2.74
`32.0
`–
`9.4
`20.6
`–
`
`2004e
`2003
`curr
`prior
`actual
`0.60
`–
`0.54
`0.53 0.61e 0.62e
`0.57 0.67e
`–
`0.67 0.87e
`–
`
`2006e
`–
`–
`–
`–
`–
`–
`–
`–
`
`2005e
`curr
`prior
`NA
`–
`NA
`–
`NA
`–
`NA
`–
`
`Q'trly
`EPS
`Q1
`Q2
`Q3
`Q4
`
`Please see analyst certification and important disclosures starting on page 20.
`
`1
`
`ALL 2052
`MYLAN PHARMACEUTICALS V. ALLERGAN
`IPR2016-01128
`
`

`

`Page 2
`
`The Well-Oiled Machine Delivers Again
`
`Company Description
`Allergan is a global provider of specialty therapeutic eye care products with niche pharmaceutical products in skin care and movement disorders.
`Products areas include ophthalmology and skin care.
`
`Summary Thoughts on 1Q04
`AGN reported 1Q04 operating EPS of $0.60, a penny
`above our estimate and consensus. Once again, the
`quality of the quarter was very high, in our view. A
`strong top line and a strong gross margin (84.5% pharma
`only) drove the upside, even with significantly higher
`spending in the quarter. Importantly, Botox, Lumigan and
`Restasis, the key growth drivers for AGN, all posted strong
`numbers. As the company has guided, it continues to
`reinvest the sales upside back into the business. But it was
`nice that AGN let a penny drop to the bottom line, which it
`has not done in the last couple of quarters.
`
`As expected, EPS guidance for 2004 remains
`unchanged at $2.72-2.75. EPS guidance for 2Q of $0.61-
`0.62 was in line with our forecasts. Revenue guidance for
`2Q was a little below our number (although the first
`quarter was just about equally above our number, and thus,
`probably just a timing issue), but has not changed for the
`full year. The only guidance change with respect to
`products is Tazorac/Avage sales for 2004, which was
`reduced by $15 million (to $70-80 million). This is not as
`critical a growth driver for AGN as the previously
`mentioned products and not a significant concern to us.
`And importantly, AGN expects to absorb this shortfall in
`the rest of its business. Also, the tax rate for 2004 is now
`30% (up from 28.7%) and the EPS guidance absorbs this
`change. This means that guidance for the underlying
`business is even higher by roughly $0.05 per share.
`
`We have made no changes to our EPS estimates of
`$2.75 for 2004 and $3.35 for 2005. We maintain our
`Overweight rating on AGN with no changes to our
`investment thesis. We continue to believe that AGN has
`the most attractive product pipeline for a company relative
`to its size in the pharma industry. It has more products
`than it can sell itself, a unique problem in the pharma
`industry.
`
`We are increasing our price target to $100 from $92,
`which is based on a P/E multiple of 30x (up from 27x), or a
`PEG of 1.3x (up from 1.2x) our 2005E earnings. Our PEG
`ratio is only in line with the group average yet the
`fundamentals for AGN are much better, but we choose to
`Allergan Inc. - April 30, 2004
`Please see analyst certification and important disclosures starting on page 20.
`
`Oral Tazorac for psoriasis on track. The PDUFA date is
`September 26, and management indicated there would be a
`
`remain conservative. There are risks to the stock achieving
`our price target. These include (1) moving the product
`pipeline through on time, (2) execution of product life
`cycle extension strategies to help sustain growth, (3)
`creating the dry eye franchise through physician education,
`and most importantly, (4) achieving the SG&A leverage
`during this strong new product cycle that is necessary to
`achieve 22-25% growth while still reinvesting significantly
`in R&D over the next 5 years.
`
`POSITIVES FROM THE QUARTER
`Strong top line in 1Q. Driven primarily by upside in Eye
`Care Pharma (including Restasis and other Eye Care).
`Lumigan and Alphagan were right in line. The Ocuflox to
`Zymar switch is going very well.
`
`Botox continues solid performance. Botox grew 22% in
`1Q (seasonally the weakest quarter of the year) and was in
`line with our estimate. Botox remains the most important
`growth driver for AGN, in our view, and imminent renewed
`DTC advertising should help. The US hyperhidrosis
`approval is expected in 2H04 and headache data should be
`presented by the end of 2004.
`
`EPS and revenue guidance remains unchanged for 2004,
`but absorbs a higher tax rate assumption. Notably, the
`higher tax rate is reducing EPS by $0.05 for the year, so
`EPS guidance for AGN’s underlying business is actually
`$0.05 higher than before. EPS guidance for 2Q04 was also
`in line with our forecast.
`
`There could be upside to Alphagan forecasts for 2004. It
`depends on the timing of generics. AGN remains very
`conservative with its Alphagan forecasts this year. Alcon
`indicated that it will be filing its 505(b)(2) generic in 2Q04.
`Hence, given this NDA route, we wouldn’t expect an FDA
`approval until next year. And B&L indicated that it was not
`pursuing a generic strategy for this product. Thus,
`competition for this product beginning in ‘05 should not be
`nearly as impactful as a traditional generic product would.
`
`2
`
`

`

`Page 3
`
`panel meeting in mid-July. There are Phase 4 comparative
`studies ongoing, and management would not provide detail
`for competitive purposes. But we assume the studies will
`be comparing oral Tazorac to a whole range of different
`psoriasis therapies, including biologics and oral retinoids.
`We remain bullish on the oral Tazorac opportunity.
`
`Triamcinolone project with NEI could be promising.
`AGN is working with the National Eye Institute to evaluate
`its new intavitreal triamcinalone injection formulation for
`macular edema. Management indicated this could be a
`$100 million opportunity, and we don’t disagree. This
`could have a place next to AGN’s Posurdex, an intravitreal
`implant for macular edema (Phase III studies ongoing).
`
`CONCERNS FROM THE QUARTER
`Reduction in guidance for Tazorac/Avage by $15MM.
`Management indicated that Avage has been a
`disappointment with an annual run-rate of less than $5
`million. This combined with an expected competitor for
`Tazorac topical in 2H04 is driving the lowered guidance.
`Tazorac/Avage is not as critical a growth driver for AGN,
`and the lowered guidance is not a significant concern to us.
`AGN expects to absorb this shortfall in the rest of its
`business.
`
`Revenue guidance for 2Q was a little below our number.
`However, the first quarter was just about equally above our
`number, and thus, this is probably just a timing issue. Also,
`revenue guidance has not changed for the full year.
`
`EPS for 2004 is still back-end loaded. Management
`attributes this to higher spend from continued investment in
`Botox DTC, salesforce in Europe for Botox, and flat R&D
`spending throughout the year rather than the usual build-up.
`
`Allergan Inc. - April 30, 2004
`Please see analyst certification and important disclosures starting on page 20.
`
`3
`
`

`

`Page 4
`
`Variance Analysis
`Exhibit 1 below details our income statement variance analysis from the quarter.
`
`Exhibit 1
`AGN 1Q04 Variance Analysis - Income Statement
` Estimate
` Actual
`($ Millions Except EPS)
`Y/Y
`Y/Y
`Amount %Chg Amount %Chg Variance
`
`Comments
`
`Sales
`Botox
`Eye Care Pharma
` Alphagan franchise
` Lumigan
` Restasis
` Other
` Total
`Skin Care Pharma
`Contract Rev
` Total Sales
`
`COGS
`Gross Profit
`Net R&D Svc. Revs.
`SG&A
`R&D
`Operating Income
`
`Interest Income
`Interest Expense
`Other Income
` Total Other Income
`
`Pretax Income
`Taxes
`Tax Rate
`
`Minority Interest
`Net Income
`Shares
`EPS - Diluted
`
`Margin Analysis
`Sales
`COGS
`Gross Profit
`R&D
`SG&A
`Operating Income
`Other Income
`Pretax Income
`Net Income
`
`22
`
`-10
`41
`NM
`21
`23
`-5
`NM
`21
`
`28
`19
`NM
`8
`54
`18
`
`-51
`0
`NM
`NM
`
`15
`24
`7
`
`NM
`12
`1
`11
`
`150.2
`
`70.0
`55.0
`18.0
`115.6
`258.6
`29.0
`22.0
`459.8
`
`92.5
`367.3
`0.0
`174.7
`81.8
`110.7
`
`2.6
`-3.4
`0.0
`-0.8
`
`109.9
`31.5
`28.7%
`
`0.2
`78.2
`132.7
`$0.59
`
`100.0%
`20.1%
`79.9%
`17.8%
`38.0%
`24.1%
`-0.2%
`23.9%
`17.0%
`
`22
`
`-9
`45
`NM
`9
`17
`12
`NM
`18
`
`35
`14
`NM
`3
`46
`13
`
`-37
`-8
`NM
`NM
`
`11
`14
`3
`
`NM
`10
`1
`9
`
`150.7
`
`69.3
`53.5
`21.3
`128.0
`272.1
`24.7
`24.9
`472.4
`
`87.6
`384.8
`0.0
`183.0
`86.1
`115.7
`
`2.0
`-3.7
`-0.1
`-1.8
`
`113.9
`34.2
`30.0%
`
`0.3
`79.4
`133.0
`$0.60
`
`100.0%
`18.5%
`81.5%
`18.2%
`38.7%
`24.5%
`-0.4%
`24.1%
`16.8%
`
`0.5
`
`1Q seasonally lower than 4Q; impressive YoY growth
`
`Price increase of 9% in January for Alphagan P
`Price increase of 5% in January for Lumigan
`
`Price increases in January of 9% for Zymar, 5% for Ocuflox and 9% for Acular
`
`Tazorac/Avage sales of $18M (-$4.5MM b/c of Avage); Tazorac 9% price increase
`
`Eye Care upside more than offset Skin Care shortfall
`
`Excludes $2.4M pre-tax related to patent infringement settlement
`Sales upside reinvested
`
`Excludes $0.1M pre-tax related to unrealized loss on derivative instruments
`
`30% is now the expected tax rate for 2004
`
`Pharma only gross margin was an impressive 84.5%
`
`(0.7)
`(1.5)
`3.3
`12.4
`13.5
`(4.3)
`2.9
`12.6
`
`(4.9)
`17.5
`0.0
`8.3
`4.3
`5.0
`
`(0.6)
`(0.3)
`(0.1)
`(1.0)
`
`4.0
`(2.7)
`-1.3%
`
`0.1
`1.2
`0.3
`$0.01
`
`1.6%
`1.6%
`-0.4%
`-0.7%
`0.4%
`-0.2%
`0.2%
`-0.2%
`
`NM = Not Meaningful; NA = Not Available
`Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research
`
`Allergan Inc. - April 30, 2004
`Please see analyst certification and important disclosures starting on page 20.
`
`4
`
`

`

`Page 5
`
`Key Changes to MS Estimates
`Exhibit 2 below details our income statement variance analysis from the quarter.
`
`Exhibit 2
`Summary of Key Changes to Our Model in 2004
`
`Current
`Previous
`Comments
`EPS
`$2.75
`NC
`In line with management’s guidance
`Botox
`$690M
`NC
`Botox growth remains strong for both the cosmetic and therapeutic indications
`Alphagan franchise
`$255M
`NC
`Generic Alph. P looking less likely for 2004
`Lumigan
`$237M
`NC
`Share in US has been slowly moving upward; 1st line therapy status in Europe should help
`Restasis
`$90M
`$84M
`Ramp going as expected
`Tazorac/Avage
`$80M
`$97M
`Avage has been a source of disappointment, management lowered guidance by $15MM
`Other revenue
`$95M
`$90M
`Reflects contract sales to AMO; it is in line with guidance
`R&D
`$350M
`$345M
`In line with management’s guidance
`SG&A
`$752M
`$746M
`In line with management’s guidance
`
`NC = no change
`Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research Estimates
`
`Management Guidance
`
`Exhibit 3
`2004 Financial Guidance (MM except EPS)
`
`2Q04 Mgmt.
`2004 Mgmt.
`
`Guidance
`Guidance
`Pharma only sales $465-480
`$1,850-1,925
`Botox
`NA
`$660-700
`Alph. franchise
`NA
`$200-240
`Lumigan
`NA
`$210-235
`Restasis
`NA
`$75-95
`Tazorac/Avage
`NA
`$70-80
`Other revenue
`$20
`$80-100
`
`Gross profit*
`R&D*
`SG&A*
`Diluted shares
`Diluted EPS**
`
`NA
`NA
`NA
`NA
`$0.61-0.62
`
`83-84%
`18%
`38-39%
`133-134
`$2.72-2.75
`
`2004 MS
`Estimate
`$1,924
`$690
`$255
`$237
`$90
`$80
`$95
`
`$83.9%
`18.3%
`41.3%
`133.9
`$2.75
`
`* As a percentage of pharma only sales
`For 3Q04, AGN estimates diluted EPS growth of 17-19% versus prior year
`NA = not available
`Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research
`
`do believe, however, that the positive long-term trends
`remain in place for the group
`
`Upcoming Events
`
`Exhibit 4
`AGN Expected Upcoming Events
`Date
`Product
`Milestone/Event
`2004
`Phase III for macular edema starts
`Posurdex
`2Q04
`FDA advisory panel meeting
`Mid-July Tazorac Oral
`July 30
`Lumigan/timolol PDUFA date
`3Q04
`Restasis
`Initiate DTC campaign
`3Q04
`Combigan
`Filing of additional Phase III data
`Sept. 26 Tazorac Oral
`PDUFA date
`2H04
`Lumigan/timolol EU filing
`2H04
`Botox
`US hyperhidrosis approval
`2H04
`Androgen tears Begin Phase III trials
`late ’04 Botox
`Headache Phase 2 data presented
`late ‘04/ Tazorac Oral
`Approval for psoriasis and launch
`early ‘05
`late ’04/ Lumigan
`early ‘05
`
`Filing in Japan
`
`2005
`1H05
`2005
`2005
`
`Combigan
`Diquafasol
`Tazorac Oral
`
`Product approval
`Product launch
`Data from Phase 4 studies
`
`Industry View
`Our specialty pharmaceuticals industry view is In-Line
`as we believe that, on a market-cap weighted basis, our
`coverage universe will perform roughly in line with the
`S&P 500. We believe 2004 will be a year of investment
`with limited upside to earnings expectations. There are new
`important products, but in our view, few have the
`opportunity to significantly outperform. Competition for
`drug acquisition/in-licensing opportunities has increased
`significantly, with some larger companies reemerging as
`competition for specialty pharma. And we believe some
`companies may enter into defensive transactions that will
`probably end up dilutive to short-term GAAP earnings. We
`Allergan Inc. - April 30, 2004
`Please see analyst certification and important disclosures starting on page 20.
`
`2006
`Botox
`1H06
`mid ‘06 Memantine
`end ‘06 Botox
`2H06
`Lumigan
`2H06
`Tazorac Oral
`2H06/
`Posurdex
`1H07
`
`US filing for spasticity
`NDA filing for glaucoma
`Japan cosmetic approval
`Launch in Japan
`Filing for acne
`US approval
`
`Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research
`
`5
`
`

`

`Page 6
`
`Exhibit 5
`Allergan - Quarterly Income Statement Comparisons 2001-2008E
`Net
`($ Millions Except EPS)
`Non-Oper. Items
`Net Sales
`R&D
`Int.
`Int.
` Gross Svc.
`Inc. Exp. Other Total
`Sales COGS Profit Revs. SG&A R&D
`
`Oper.
`Inc.
`
`Pretax Tax
`Inc. Rate Taxes
`
`Min. Net Avg. Oper.
`EPS
`Int.
`Inc. Shs.
`
`2001
` 1Q
` 2Q (g)
` 3Q (h)
` 4Q (i)
`Year
`2002
` 1Q (j)
` 2Q (k)
` 3Q (l)
` 4Q (m)
`Year
`2003E
` 1Q
` 2Q (n)
` 3Q
` 4Q (o)
`Year
`2004E
` 1QA (p)
` 2Q
` 3Q
` 4Q
`Year
`2005E
`2006E
`2007E
`2008E
`CAGR
`2003-2008E
`% Change
`
`66.0
`62.9
`67.4
`69.9
`266.2
`
`228.1
`233.9
`233.5
`255.7
`951.2
`
`273.4
`62.7
`293.9
`62.0
`291.2
`59.4
`308.7
`69.5
`253.6 1,167.2
`
`322.8
`68.4
`361.4
`80.1
`360.5
`82.8
`390.4
`89.0
`320.3 1,435.1
`
`384.8
`87.6
`403.9
`96.7
`407.6
`100.1
`434.0
`104.0
`388.4 1,630.3
`386.6 1,789.4
`366.8 2,086.0
`411.6 2,428.1
`458.7 2,809.1
`
`294.1
`296.8
`300.9
`325.6
`1,217.4
`
`336.1
`355.9
`350.6
`378.2
`1,420.8
`
`391.2
`441.5
`443.3
`479.4
`1,755.4
`
`472.4
`500.6
`507.7
`538.0
`2,018.7
`2,176.0
`2,452.8
`2,839.7
`3,267.8
`
`13.2
`
`1.3
`1.2
`0.7
`1.0
`4.2
`
`0.9
`0.8
`0.8
`1.2
`3.7
`
`0.9
`0.6
`0.0
`0.0
`1.5
`
`133.3 38.0
`126.9 47.4
`120.5 50.8
`122.6 50.6
`503.3 186.8
`
`0.5
`-5.3
`58.1 12.5
`1.4
`-5.5
`60.8
`9.6
`2.1
`-5.4
`62.9
`8.2
`-5.1 -4.6
`83.5
`6.3
`265.3 36.6 -21.3 -0.6
`
`144.0 51.2
`159.1 57.9
`145.6 59.0
`148.0 62.8
`596.7 230.9
`
`-5.3 -0.7
`5.1
`79.1
`-5.5
`1.7
`4.8
`77.7
`-4.0
`0.6
`3.7
`87.4
`-4.6 -0.4
`5.1
`99.1
`343.3 18.7 -19.4
`1.2
`
`170.0 55.9
`184.3 76.9
`170.5 81.0
`168.8 91.7
`693.6 305.5
`
`0.5
`-3.7
`4.1
`97.8
`-4.6 -2.1
`4.0
`100.8
`-3.9 -1.4
`2.6
`109.0
`-3.4 -2.6
`2.3
`129.9
`437.5 13.0 -15.6 -5.6
`
`7.7
`5.5
`4.9
`-3.4
`14.7
`
`-0.9
`1.0
`0.3
`0.1
`0.5
`
`0.9
`-2.7
`-2.7
`-3.7
`-8.2
`
`65.8 29.0% 19.1 0.1 46.6 134.1 $0.35
`66.3 29.0% 19.2 0.3 46.8 134.6 $0.35
`67.8 29.6% 20.1 0.3 47.4 133.8 $0.35
`80.1 29.0% 23.2 -0.1 57.0 133.6 $0.43
`280.0 29.1% 81.6 0.6 197.8 134.0 $1.48
`
`78.2 28.0% 21.9 0.0 56.3 131.9 $0.43
`78.7 28.1% 22.1 0.3 56.3 130.9 $0.43
`87.7 28.1% 24.6 0.4 62.7 130.5 $0.48
`99.2 27.9% 27.7 0.0 71.5 134.5 $0.54
`343.8 28.0% 96.3 0.7 246.8 132.0 $1.88
`
`98.7 28.0% 27.6 0.3 70.8 131.8 $0.54
`98.1 28.0% 27.5 0.4 70.2 132.9 $0.53
`106.3 28.0% 29.8 0.6 75.9 133.0 $0.57
`126.2 30.5% 38.5 -0.5 88.2 132.1 $0.67
`429.3 28.7% 123.4 0.8 305.1 132.5 $2.31
`
`-3.7 -0.1
`2.0
`115.7
`183.0 86.1
`0.0
`-3.7
`0.0
`2.8
`118.5
`197.7 87.6
`0.0
`-3.7
`0.0
`3.0
`129.9
`190.4 87.3
`0.0
`-1.9
`0.0
`4.7
`163.9
`181.3 88.8
`0.0
`528.1 12.5 -13.0 -0.1
`752.4 349.8
`0.0
`638.3 28.0 -13.0
`0.0
`776.8 374.3
`0.0
`776.2 37.0 -13.0
`0.0
`885.5 424.3
`0.0
`951.5 54.0 -13.0
`0.0
`993.9 482.8
`0.0
`0.0 1,101.3 522.9 1,185.0 85.0 -13.0
`0.0
`
`113.9 30.0% 34.2 0.3 79.4 133.0 $0.60
`-1.8
`117.6 30.0% 35.3 0.2 82.1 133.6 $0.61
`-0.9
`129.2 30.0% 38.8 0.2 90.2 134.2 $0.67
`-0.7
`166.7 30.0% 50.1 0.0 116.6 134.8 $0.87
`2.8
`527.5 30.0% 158.4 0.7 368.4 133.9 $2.75
`-0.6
`653.2 30.0% 196.1 0.7 456.4 136.2 $3.35
`15.0
`800.2 30.0% 240.3 0.7 559.3 136.7 $4.09
`24.0
`992.4 30.0% 298.0 0.7 693.8 137.2 $5.06
`41.0
`72.0 1,257.0 30.0% 377.4 0.7 878.9 137.7 $6.38
`
`22.1
`
`24.0
`
`23.6
`
`22.5
`
`17%
`
`-5% 23% NM
`
`19% 24% 29% -49% -9% NM NM
`
`23% -4% 18% NM 25% -2% 27%
`
`26%
`25%
`21%
`27%
`25%
`
`0% 27%
`0% 26% NM 26%
`2% 23%
`0% 24% NM 25%
`2% 19%
`0% 21% NM 21%
`9% 39% NM 23% -2% 24%
`3% 28% NM 24%
`0% 23%
`
`7% 24% NM 12%
`15%
`7% 28% NM 17%
`20%
`7% 30% NM 19%
`22%
`32% -2% 30% NM 32%
`23%
`4% 28% NM 21%
`24%
`0% 24% NM 24%
`22%
`0% 22% NM 23%
`24%
`0% 24% NM 24%
`27%
`0% 27% NM 27%
`
`1% 11%
`1% 16%
`1% 18%
`2% 29%
`1% 19%
`2% 22%
`0% 22%
`0% 24%
`0% 26%
`
`2002/2001
`2003/2002
` 1Q
` 2Q
` 3Q
` 4Q
`Year
`2004E/2003
`21% 28% 19% NM
` 1QA
`13% 21% 12% NM
` 2Q
`15% 21% 13% NM
` 3Q
`12% 17% 11% NM
` 4Q
`15% 21% 14% NM
`Year
`8%
`0% 10% NM
`2005E/2004E
`13%
`-5% 17% NM
`2006E/2005E
`16% 12% 16% NM
`2007E/2006E
`15% 11% 16% NM
`2008E/2007E
`See footnotes on "Table 2."
`E = Morgan Stanley Research Estimates A = Actual NM = Not Meaningful
`
`9% 18% NM
`16%
`24% 29% 23% NM
`26% 39% 24% NM
`27% 28% 26% NM
`24% 26% 23% NM
`
`18% 9% 24% -20% -30% NM NM
`16% 33% 30% -17% -16% NM NM
`17% 37% 25% -30% -3% NM NM
`14% 46% 31% -55% -26% NM NM
`16% 32% 27% -30% -20% NM NM
`
`8% 54% 18% -51% 0% NM NM
`7% 14% 18% -30% -20% NM NM
`12% 8% 19% 15% -5% NM NM
`7% -3% 26% 104% -43% NM NM
`8% 15% 21% -4% -16% NM NM
`3% 7% 21% 124% 0% NM NM
`14% 13% 22% 32% 0% NM NM
`12% 14% 23% 46% 0% NM NM
`11% 8% 25% 57% 0% NM NM
`
`Allergan Inc. - April 30, 2004
`Please see analyst certification and important disclosures starting on page 20.
`
`6
`
`

`

`Exhibit 6
`Allergan - Quarterly Margin Analysis 2001-2008E
`Net R&D
`Service
` Gross
` COGS Margin Revenues SG&A
`
` Sales
`
` R&D
`
` Oper
`Inc.
`
`Int.
`Inc.
`
`Non-Operating Items
`Int.
`Exp.
`
`Other
`
`Total
`
`Page 7
`
`Pretax
`Inc.
`
`Net
`Inc.
`
`4.3%
`3.2%
`2.7%
`1.9%
`3.0%
`
`1.5%
`1.3%
`1.1%
`1.3%
`1.3%
`
`1.0%
`0.9%
`0.6%
`0.5%
`0.7%
`
`-1.8%
`-1.9%
`-1.8%
`-1.6%
`-1.7%
`
`-1.6%
`-1.5%
`-1.1%
`-1.2%
`-1.4%
`
`-0.9%
`-1.0%
`-0.9%
`-0.7%
`-0.9%
`
`0.2%
`0.5%
`0.7%
`-1.4%
`0.0%
`
`-0.2%
`0.5%
`0.2%
`-0.1%
`0.1%
`
`0.1%
`-0.5%
`-0.3%
`-0.5%
`-0.3%
`
`2.6%
`1.9%
`1.6%
`-1.0%
`1.2%
`
`-0.3%
`0.3%
`0.1%
`0.0%
`0.0%
`
`0.2%
`-0.6%
`-0.6%
`-0.8%
`-0.5%
`
`22.4%
`22.3%
`22.5%
`24.6%
`23.0%
`
`23.3%
`22.1%
`25.0%
`26.2%
`24.2%
`
`25.2%
`22.2%
`24.0%
`26.3%
`24.5%
`
`15.8%
`15.8%
`15.8%
`17.5%
`16.2%
`
`16.8%
`15.8%
`17.9%
`18.9%
`17.4%
`
`18.1%
`15.9%
`17.1%
`18.4%
`17.4%
`
`16.8%
`16.4%
`17.8%
`21.7%
`18.3%
`21.0%
`22.8%
`24.4%
`26.9%
`
`100.0% 22.4% 77.6%
`100.0% 21.2% 78.8%
`100.0% 22.4% 77.6%
`100.0% 21.5% 78.5%
`100.0% 21.9% 78.1%
`
`0.4% 45.3% 12.9% 19.8%
`0.4% 42.8% 16.0% 20.5%
`0.2% 40.0% 16.9% 20.9%
`0.3% 37.7% 15.5% 25.6%
`0.3% 41.3% 15.3% 21.8%
`
`100.0% 18.7% 81.3%
`100.0% 17.4% 82.6%
`100.0% 16.9% 83.1%
`100.0% 18.4% 81.6%
`100.0% 17.8% 82.2%
`
`0.3% 42.8% 15.2% 23.5%
`0.2% 44.7% 16.3% 21.8%
`0.2% 41.5% 16.8% 24.9%
`0.3% 39.1% 16.6% 26.2%
`0.3% 42.0% 16.3% 24.2%
`
`100.0% 17.5% 82.5%
`100.0% 18.1% 81.9%
`100.0% 18.7% 81.3%
`100.0% 18.6% 81.4%
`100.0% 18.2% 81.8%
`
`0.2% 43.5% 14.3% 25.0%
`0.1% 41.7% 17.4% 22.8%
`0.0% 38.5% 18.3% 24.6%
`0.0% 35.2% 19.1% 27.1%
`0.1% 39.5% 17.4% 24.9%
`
`2001
` 1Q
` 2Q (g)
` 3Q (h)
` 4Q (i)
`Year
`2002
` 1Q (j)
` 2Q (k)
` 3Q (l)
` 4Q (m)
`Year
`2003
` 1Q
` 2Q (n)
` 3Q
` 4Q (o)
`Year
`2004E
` 1Q (p)
`24.1%
`-0.4%
`0.0%
`-0.8%
`0.4%
`0.0% 38.7% 18.2% 24.5%
`100.0% 18.5% 81.5%
`23.5%
`-0.2%
`0.0%
`-0.7%
`0.6%
`0.0% 39.5% 17.5% 23.7%
`100.0% 19.3% 80.7%
` 2Q
`25.5%
`-0.1%
`0.0%
`-0.7%
`0.6%
`0.0% 37.5% 17.2% 25.6%
`100.0% 19.7% 80.3%
` 3Q
`31.0%
`0.5%
`0.0%
`-0.4%
`0.9%
`0.0% 33.7% 16.5% 30.5%
`100.0% 19.3% 80.7%
` 4Q
`26.1%
`0.0%
`0.0%
`-0.6%
`0.6%
`0.0% 37.3% 17.3% 26.2%
`100.0% 19.2% 80.8%
`Year
`30.0%
`0.7%
`0.0%
`-0.6%
`1.3%
`0.0% 35.7% 17.2% 29.3%
`100.0% 17.8% 82.2%
`2005E
`32.6%
`1.0%
`0.0%
`-0.5%
`1.5%
`0.0% 36.1% 17.3% 31.6%
`100.0% 15.0% 85.0%
`2006E
`34.9%
`1.4%
`0.0%
`-0.5%
`1.9%
`0.0% 35.0% 17.0% 33.5%
`100.0% 14.5% 85.5%
`2007E
`38.5%
`2.2%
`0.0%
`-0.4%
`2.6%
`0.0% 33.7% 16.0% 36.3%
`100.0% 14.0% 86.0%
`2008E
`(g) 2Q01 excludes a $40 million one-time charge related to the purchase of Allergan Specialty Therapeutics (ASTI) and an unrealized non-cash loss on
` derivative instruments of $1.1 million.
`(h) 3Q01 excludes an unrealized non-cash loss on derivative instruments of $2.4 million, or $0.01 per share.
`(i) 4Q01 excludes one-time gains of $0.05 and one-time losses of $0.05 that net to zero
`(j) 1Q02 excludes a restructuring charge of $0.07 and duplicate operating expenses of $0.05 associated with the AMO spin off, $0.04 loss associated with the
` permanent impairment of AGN's equity investment in ISTA, $0.02 charge associated with R&D milestone payments, a $0.03 benefit from the settlement of a
` collaboration relationship, and a $0.01 non-cash unrealized loss on foreign exchange derivatives
`(k) 2Q02 excludes a restructuring charge and asset write off of $0.31 per share, $0.20 per share related to duplicate expenses, and $0.03 per share related
` to unrealized losses on derivative instruments
`(l) 3Q02 excludes $138.2 million ($0.76 per share) of pre-tax non-recurring items relate to the following: (1) reserve of $118.7 million per-tax ($0.65 per share) associated
` with the global Lumigan settlement with Pharmacia, (2) mark-to-market loss on investments and related third-party collaboration of $22.2 million ($0.12 per share),
` (3) gain of $5.7 million pre-tax ($0.03 per share) on a sale of a facility related to the AVO spin-off, (4) duplicate operating expenses before tax of
` $3.8 million ($0.02 per share), and (5)other items that related in a net pre-tax gain of $0.8 million ($0.00 per share) consisting of an unrealized marked-to-market gain
` on derivative instruments partially offset by adjustment to the restructuring charge and asset writ-off related to the spin-off of the AVO business.
`(m) 4Q02 excludes the following non-recurring items which amounted to a $9.8 million pre-tax, or a $0.05 per share charge against earnings:
` (1) Unrealized gain on mark-to-market adjustment to derivative investments of $1.0 million pre-tax, or $0.01 per share,
` (2) duplicate operating expenses associated with the AMO spin-off of $1.4 million pre-tax, or $0.01 per share
` (3) charge for the early extinguishment of convertible debt of $11.7 million pre-tax, or $0.06 per share
` (4) restructure charge and asset write-off reversal of $2.3 million pre-tax, or $0.01 per share
`(n) 2Q03 excludes pre-tax in process R&D charges of $279 million ($178 million after-tax, or -$1.34 of EPS) related to the purchase of Bardeen Sciences.
`(o) 4Q03 excludes in-process R&D charges related to the acquisition of Oculex ($179.2 million), the write-off of unamortized origination fees associated with the retirement of
` LYONS ($0.9 million), the effects of the unrealized gain on derivative instruments ($0.6 million), and the reversal of restructuring charges and asset write-offs related to
` the spin-off of AMO ($0.4 million).
`(p) 1Q04 excludes a $0.1 million charge related to unrealized loss on derivative instruments
`E = Morgan Stanley Research Estimates A = Actual NM = Not Meaningful
`
`Allergan Inc. - April 30, 2004
`Please see analyst certification and important disclosures starting on page 20.
`
`7
`
`

`

`Page 8
`
`Exhibit 7
`Allergan - Quarterly Sales Comparisons 2001-2008E
`($ Millions)
`Botox
`Eyecare Pharma
`Alphagan Lumigan Glaucoma Dry Eye
`Other
`Franchise Franchise Franchise Franchise Pharma
`
`Skin Care Pharma
`Tazorac/
`Oral
`Other
`Avage TazaracSkin Care
`
`Total
`
` Total
`Total Contract
`Total Pharma Revenue Revenues
`
`67.6
`76.4
`77.2
`88.3
`309.5
`
`88.6
`112.2
`110.7
`128.2
`439.7
`
`123.1
`143.1
`139.9
`157.8
`563.9
`
`150.7
`174.6
`170.7
`194.1
`690.1
`808.2
`899.4
`980.4
`1,062.4
`
`31%
`47%
`43%
`45%
`42%
`
`39%
`28%
`26%
`23%
`28%
`
`66.5
`57.3
`61.5
`65.6
`250.9
`
`74.8
`59.9
`52.0
`64.7
`251.4
`
`77.3
`64.7
`71.4
`73.2
`286.6
`
`69.3
`65.0
`61.0
`59.7
`255.0
`169.2
`130.1
`96.2
`81.2
`
`12%
`5%
`-15%
`-1%
`0%
`
`3%
`8%
`37%
`13%
`14%
`
`3.0
`6.6
`10.6
`15.2
`35.4
`
`21.1
`31.9
`35.0
`35.1
`123.1
`
`38.0
`44.9
`46.8
`51.7
`181.4
`
`53.5
`57.5
`61.0
`64.6
`236.6
`273.8
`359.4
`431.9
`519.5
`
`603%
`383%
`230%
`131%
`248%
`
`80%
`41%
`34%
`47%
`47%
`
`69.5
`63.9
`72.1
`80.8
`286.3
`
`95.9
`91.8
`87.0
`99.8
`374.5
`
`115.3
`109.6
`118.2
`124.9
`468.0
`
`122.8
`122.5
`122.0
`124.3
`491.6
`442.9
`489.5
`528.0
`600.8
`
`38%
`44%
`21%
`24%
`31%
`
`20%
`19%
`36%
`25%
`25%
`
`0.0
`0.0
`0.0
`0.0
`0.0
`
`0.0
`0.0
`0.0
`0.0
`0.0
`
`0.0
`11.8
`10.7
`15.9
`38.4
`
`21.3
`22.0
`23.0
`24.0
`90.3
`146.6
`238.4
`340.0
`421.5
`
`NM
`NM
`NM
`NM
`NM
`
`NM
`NM
`NM
`NM
`NM
`
`120.2
`119.0
`114.4
`113.9
`467.5
`
`111.9
`114.4
`115.5
`111.0
`452.8
`
`105.7
`131.9
`123.9
`131.6
`493.1
`
`128.0
`133.5
`140.0
`141.1
`542.6
`569.2
`622.9
`731.1
`864.6
`
`-7%
`-4%
`1%
`-3%
`-3%
`
`-6%
`15%
`7%
`19%
`9%
`
`2001
` 1Q
` 2Q
` 3Q
` 4Q
`Year
`2002
` 1Q
` 2Q
` 3Q
` 4Q
`Year
`2003
` 1Q
` 2Q
` 3Q
` 4Q
`Year
`2004E
` 1QA
` 2Q
` 3Q
` 4Q
`Year
`2005E
`2006E
`2007E
`2008E
`% Change
`2002/01
` 1Q
` 2Q
` 3Q
` 4Q
`Year
`2003/02
` 1Q
` 2Q
` 3Q
` 4Q
`Year
`2004E/2003
`21%
`NM
`7%
`41%
`-10%
`22%
` 1QA
`1%
`86%
`12%
`28%
`0%
`22%
` 2Q
`13%
`115%
`3%
`30%
`-15%
`22%
` 3Q
`7%
`51%
`0%
`25%
`-18%
`23%
` 4Q
`10%
`135%
`5%
`30%
`-11%
`22%
`Year
`5%
`62%
`-10%
`16%
`-34%
`17%
`2005E/04E
`9%
`63%
`11%
`31%
`-23%
`11%
`2006E/05E
`17%
`43%
`8%
`20%
`-26%
`9%
`2007E/06E
`18%
`24%
`14%
`20%
`-16%
`8%
`2008E/07E
`E = Morgan Stanley Research Estimates A = Actual NM = Not Meaningful
`
`189.7
`182.9
`186.5
`194.7
`753.8
`
`207.8
`206.2
`202.5
`210.8
`827.3
`
`221.0
`253.3
`252.8
`272.4
`999.5
`
`272.1
`278.0
`285.0
`289.5
`1,124.6
`1,158.8
`1,350.8
`1,599.1
`1,886.9
`
`10%
`13%
`9%
`8%
`10%
`
`6%
`23%
`25%
`29%
`21%
`
`23%
`10%
`13%
`6%
`13%
`3%
`17%
`18%
`18%
`
`8.4
`10.1
`11.2
`15.7
`45.4
`
`12.2
`14.5
`20.2
`15.2
`62.1
`
`19.7
`16.8
`22.3
`21.4
`80.2
`
`18.0
`19.0
`21.0
`22.2
`80.2
`90.6
`99.7
`107.7
`116.3
`
`45%
`44%
`80%
`-3%
`37%
`
`61%
`16%
`10%
`41%
`29%
`
`-9%
`13%
`-6%
`4%
`0%
`13%
`10%
`8%
`8%
`
`0.0
`0.0
`0.0
`0.0
`0.0
`
`0.0
`0.0
`0.0
`0.0
`0.0
`
`0.0
`0.0
`0.0
`0.0
`0.0
`
`0.0
`0.0
`0.0
`0.0
`0.0
`40.0
`75.0
`125.0
`175.0
`
`NM
`NM
`NM
`NM
`NM
`
`NM
`NM
`NM
`NM
`NM
`
`NM
`NM
`NM
`NM
`NM
`NM
`88%
`67%
`40%
`
`9.6
`8.6
`7.2
`8.1
`33.5
`
`9.6
`5.1
`6.7
`6.7
`28.1
`
`6.2
`7.9
`6.9
`8.1
`29.1
`
`6.7
`7.0
`7.5
`7.7
`28.9
`28.4
`28.0
`27.6
`27.2
`
`0%
`-41%
`-7%
`-17%
`-16%
`
`-35%
`55%
`3%
`21%
`4%
`
`8%
`-11%
`9%
`-6%
`-1%
`-2%
`-1%
`-1%
`-1%
`
`18.0
`18.7
`18.4
`23.8
`78.9
`
`21.8
`19.6
`26.9
`21.9
`90.2
`
`25.9
`24.7
`29.2
`29.5
`109.3
`
`24.7
`26.0
`28.5
`29.9
`109.1
`159.0
`202.7
`260.3
`318.5
`
`21%
`5%
`46%
`-8%
`14%
`
`19%
`26%
`9%
`35%
`21%
`
`-5%
`5%
`-2%
`1%
`0%
`46%
`27%
`28%
`22%
`
`275.3
`278.0
`282.1
`306.8
`1,142.2
`
`318.2
`338.0
`340.1
`360.9
`1,357.2
`
`370.0
`421.1
`421.9
`459.7
`1,672.7
`
`447.5
`478.6
`484.2
`513.4
`1,923.7
`2,126.0
`2,452.8
`2,839.7
`3,267.8
`
`16%
`22%
`21%
`18%
`19%
`
`16%
`25%
`24%
`27%
`23%
`
`21%
`14%
`15%
`12%
`15%
`11%
`15%
`16%
`15%
`
`18.8
`18.8
`18.8
`18.8
`75.2
`
`17.9
`17.9
`10.5
`17.3
`63.6
`
`21.2
`20.4
`21.4
`19.7
`82.7
`
`24.9
`22.0
`23.5
`24.6
`95.0
`50.0
`0.0
`0.0
`0.0
`
`NM
`NM
`NM
`NM
`NM
`
`NM
`NM
`NM
`NM
`NM
`
`NM
`NM
`NM
`NM
`NM
`NM
`NM
`NM
`NM
`
`294.1
`296.8
`300.9
`325.6
`1,217.4
`
`336.1
`355.9
`350.6
`378.2
`1,420.8
`
`391.2
`441.5
`443.3
`479.4
`1,755.4
`
`472.4
`500.6
`507.7
`538.0
`2,018.7
`2,176.0
`2,452.8
`2,839.7
`3,267.8
`
`14%
`20%
`17%
`16%
`17%
`
`16%
`24%
`26%
`27%
`24%
`
`21%
`13%
`15%
`12%
`15%
`8%
`13%
`16%
`15%
`
`Allergan Inc. - April 30, 2004
`Please see analyst certification and important disclosures starting on page 20.
`
`8
`
`

`

`Page 9
`
`Exhibit 8
`Allergan - Worldwide Neurotoxins Market Model 2001-2008E
`($ Millions)
`
`2001
`
`2002
`
`2003
`
`CAGR
`2004E 2005E 2006E 2007E 2008E 03-08E
`
`Movement Disorder (a)
` Estimated WW Market Size (b)
` AGN Penetration Rate (%)
` Botox Sales
`
`Spasticity - Pediatric Cerebral Palsy
` Estimated WW Market Size (b)
` AGN Penetration Rate (%)
` Botox Sales
`
`Spasticity - Adult (c)
` Estimated WW Market Size (b)
` AGN Penetration Rate (%)
` Botox Sales
`
`Migraine
` Estimated WW Market Size (b)
` AGN Penetration Rate (%)
` Botox Sales
`
`80.0
`85%
`68.0
`
`50.0
`55%
`27.5
`
`84.0
`86%
`72.2
`
`55.0
`65%
`35.8
`
`88.2
`87%
`76.7
`
`60.0
`66%
`39.6
`
`92.6
`88%
`81.5
`
`65.0
`67%
`43.6
`
`97.2
`89%
`86.5
`
`70.0
`68%
`47.6
`
`102.1
`90%
`91.9
`
`107.2
`90%
`96.5
`
`112.6
`90%
`101.3
`
`75.0
`69%
`51.8
`
`80.0
`70%
`56.0
`
`85.0
`71%
`60.4
`
`145.0
`30%
`43.5
`
`150.0
`36%
`54.0
`
`155.0
`40%
`62.0
`
`160.0
`45%
`72.0
`
`165.0
`50%
`82.5
`
`170.0
`55%
`93.5
`
`175.0
`60%
`105.0
`
`180.0
`65%
`117.0
`
`220.0
`5%
`11.0
`
`230.0
`10%
`23.0
`
`240.0
`20%
`47.3
`
`250.0
`25%
`62.5
`
`260.0
`30%
`78.0
`
`270.0
`32%
`86.4
`
`280.0
`34%
`95.2
`
`300.0
`36%
`108.0
`
`5.0
`
`5.7
`
`7.2
`
`8.8
`
`3.0
`
`13.5
`
`4.6
`
`18.0
`
`4.8
`
`Lower Back Pain
` Estimated WW Market Size (b)
` AGN Penetration Rate (%)
` Botox Sales
`
`Hyperhidrosis
` Estimated WW Market Size (b)
` AGN Penetration Rate (%)
` Botox Sales
`
`Other (e)
` Estimated WW Market Size (b)
` AGN Penetration Rate (%)
` Botox Sales
`
`Total Therapeutic Uses
` Estimated WW Market Size (b)
` AGN Penetration Rate (%)
` Botox Sales
` Growth Rate
`
`Cosmetic (d)
` Estimated WW Market Size (b)
` AGN Penetration Rate (%)
` Botox Sales
` Growth Rate
`
`170.0
`5%
`8.5
`
`180.0
`7%
`13.4
`
`190.0
`10%
`18.9
`
`200.0
`12%
`24.9
`
`210.0
`15%
`31.4
`
`220.0
`17%
`38.4
`
`230.0
`20%
`45.9
`
`240.0
`22%
`53.9
`
`60.0
`19%
`11.4
`
`65.0
`26%
`16.9
`
`75.0
`37%
`27.8
`
`90.0
`45%
`40.5
`
`100.0
`48%
`48.0
`
`105.0
`49%
`51.5
`
`110.3
`50%
`55.1
`
`115.8
`50%
`57.9
`
`125.0
`27%
`34.2
`
`137.5
`37%
`50.9
`
`147.1
`47%
`69.1
`
`157.4
`59%
`92.9
`
`168.4
`66%
`111.2
`
`181.9
`72%
`131.0
`
`196.5
`73%
`143.4
`
`212.2
`74%
`157.0
`
`850.0
`24%
`204.1
`
`955.3 1,015.0 1,070.7 1,124.0 1,178.9 1,245.5
`901.5
`36%
`41%
`45%
`48%
`51%
`53%
`30%
`341.4
`417.8
`485.2
`544.4
`597.1
`655.4
`266.2
`30.4% 28.3% 22.4% 16.1% 12.2%
`9.7%
`9.8%
`
`340.0
`31%
`105.4
`
`500.0
`475.0
`450.0
`425.0
`380.0
`71%
`68%
`61%
`52%
`46%
`355.0
`323.0
`272.3
`222.5
`173.5
`64.6% 28.2% 22.4% 18.6% 9.9%
`
`525.0
`73%
`383.3
`8.0%
`
`550.0
`74%
`407.0
`6.2%
`
`Total
` Estimated WW Market Size (b) 1,190.0 1,281.5 1,380.3 1,465.0 1,545.7 1,624.0 1,703.9 1,795.5
` AGN Penetration Rate (%)
`26%
`34%
`41%
`47%
`52%
`55%
`58%
`59%
` Botox Sales
`309.5
`439.7
`563.9
`690.1
`808.2
`899.4
`980.4 1,062.4
` Growth Rate
`42.1% 28.2% 22.4% 17.1% 11.3%
`9.0%
`8.4%
`
`23.3
`
`9.1
`
`15.8
`
`7.6
`
`17.8
`
`5.4
`
`13.9
`
`5.3
`
`12.8
`
`5.4
`
`13.5
`
`62%
`61%
`61%
`60%
`61%
`61%
`61%
`66%
`38%
`39%
`39%
`40%
`39%
`39%
`39%
`34%
`100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
`
`% of Sales
`Therapeutic Uses
`Cosmetic (c)
`Total Sales
`Notes:
`(a) Movement disorder includes blepharospasm, strabismus, and cervical dystonia.
`(b) Estimated worldwide market sizes for the various neurotoxin indications are based on both Morgan Stanley and
` Allergan estimates. AGN has indicated that cosmetic accounted for 40% of sales in 2002 and that cosmetic grew
` over 60%, while therapeutic uses grew over 30% in 2002.
`(c) Adult spasticity includes post stroke,