`U.S. Patent No. 8,664,231
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`Attorney Docket No.
`110670-0010-651
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`UNITED STATES PATENT AND TRADEMARK OFFICE
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`___________________________________
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`BEFORE THE PATENT TRIAL AND APPEAL BOARD
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`___________________________________
`
`FRONTIER THERAPEUTICS, LLC
`
`
`Petitioner
`
`v.
`
`MEDAC GESELLSCHAFT FÜR KLINISCHE
`SPEZIALPRÄPARATE MBH
`
`
`Patent Owner
`
`___________________________________
`
`Inter Partes Review Case No. IPR2016-00649
`Patent Number 8,664,231
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`
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`EXPERT DECLARATION OF DR. SEAN NICHOLSON
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`June 2, 2016
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`Page 1
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`Medac Exhibit 2032
`Frontier Therapeutics v. Medac
`IPR2016-00649
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`IPR2016-00649
`U.S. Patent No. 8,664,231
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`Table of Contents
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`Attorney Docket No.
`110670-0010-651
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`I.
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`Qualifications .................................................................................................... 3
`
`II. Assignment ....................................................................................................... 4
`
`III. Summary Of Opinions ...................................................................................... 7
`
`IV. Background ....................................................................................................... 9
`
`V. The Development Of A Product Using The Innovation, Like Rasuvo™,
`Presented Companies with A Valuable Economic Opportunity ............................. 11
`
`Potential Sales For A Product Containing The Innovation Are Substantial,
`A.
`And This Was Expected Prior To The Filing Of The ‘231 Patent ....................... 11
`B.
`Patients May Prefer A Product Using The Innovation Versus Pre-Existing
`Forms of Methotrexate .......................................................................................... 20
`C. A Product Containing The Innovation Could Lower Costs For Third-Party
`Payors And Patients By Delaying or Reducing The Use Of Biologic Treatments
`
`24
`
`VI. There Were No Substantial Barriers To Entry In The United States Market
`For A Methotrexate Product Using The Innovation ................................................ 29
`
`VII. Despite The Substantial Economic Opportunity For A Product Using The
`Innovation And The Lack of Substantial Barriers To Entry, Such An Innovation
`Had Not Been Developed Prior To The Filing Of The ‘231 Patent ........................ 36
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`I.
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`Qualifications
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`Attorney Docket No.
`110670-0010-651
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`1. I am a Professor in the Department of Policy Analysis and Management at
`Cornell University and a research associate at the National Bureau of Economic
`Research. Prior to assuming my current position at Cornell, I served as an
`Assistant Professor in Healthcare Systems at the Wharton School of the
`University of Pennsylvania. I have a Ph.D. in economics from the University of
`Wisconsin-Madison and an A.B. in economics from Dartmouth College. My
`research and teaching specialty is the economics of healthcare. My curriculum
`vitae, including a list of publications, is attached as Appendix A.
`2. In my academic career, I have researched the economics of the healthcare
`industry, with an emphasis on the economic behavior of, and interaction
`between, government and employer-sponsored health plans, hospitals, and
`physicians. I have published articles in leading academic journals regarding my
`field of study. In addition, I have served as a principal investigator on research
`projects sponsored by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the
`Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality, the Robert Wood Johnson
`Foundation, and by leading pharmaceutical companies such as Merck & Co.,
`Inc., Pfizer, Astra Zeneca, and Johnson & Johnson. I have also consulted to
`four biopharmaceutical companies, Cephalon, Inc., Amgen, Merck, and Pfizer,
`and provided executive education for Edwards Lifesciences, Anesthesia
`Business Group, the Hospital Association of New York State (HANYS), the
`West Penn Allegheny Health System, Teva Pharmaceutical Industries, Ltd,
`Aventis, Wyeth, Eisai, and Johnson & Johnson. In addition, I have experience
`working as a management consultant in the hospital industry.
`3. My research projects have included examining how physicians form their
`treatment styles and how those styles change over time, examining how
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`managed care insurance plans are able to reduce medical spending and
`premiums, identifying what types of firms are most effective at developing
`drugs, examining why biotechnology and pharmaceutical firms form drug
`development alliances and merge and the impact of those decisions, assessing
`risk in the healthcare industry, and determining the value of new medical
`technologies. I co-edited the Oxford Handbook of the Economics of the
`Biopharmaceutical Industry, which covers many topics, including how firms
`finance research and development, set drug prices, and market pharmaceutical
`products. I have also conducted research and offered expert testimony in
`several cases in the healthcare industry. A list of the matters in which I have
`testified in the last four years is attached as Appendix B.
`
`II. Assignment
`
`4. Frontier Therapeutics, LLC (“Petitioner”) has petitioned for Inter Partes
`Review (“IPR) of United States Patent No. US 8,664,231 B2 (the “‘231
`patent”), which is owned by Medac Gesellschaft für klinische Spezialpräparate
`mbH (collectively with its United States subsidiary Medac Pharma, Inc.,
`“Medac”). The ‘231 patent issued in the United States on March 4, 2014.1 The
`claim at issue in the ‘231 patent relates to a method characterized by the
`subcutaneous administration of “methotrexate…at a concentration of more than
`
`
`1 United States Patent No. US 8,664,231 B2 (Ex. 1001). I am informed and
`
`understand that the priority application of this patent was filed in Germany on July
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`21, 2006 and in the European Patent Office, as Receiving Office for the Patent
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`Cooperation Treaty, on July 20, 2007. Id.
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`30 mg/ml” for the treatment of inflammatory autoimmune diseases.2 I will refer
`to this claim as the “Innovation” throughout my report. Medac markets a
`methotrexate product, Rasuvo™ (methotrexate) injection (“Rasuvo™”), which
`I understand uses the Innovation.3 Antares Pharma, Inc. (“Antares”) also
`markets a methotrexate product, Otrexup™ (methotrexate) injection
`(“Otrexup™”), which I understand uses the Innovation.
`5. I understand that a key question at issue in this IPR is whether the Innovation
`was obvious. I have been retained by counsel for Medac to evaluate whether
`there were economic reasons why no company had introduced a product like
`Rasuvo™ or Otrexup™, i.e., a product using the Innovation, for the treatment
`of inflammatory autoimmune disease, examples of which include rheumatoid
`arthritis, psoriasis, and polyarticular juvenile idiopathic arthritis (“PJIA”) in the
`United States prior to July 21, 2006, the earliest priority date of the ‘231 patent.
`I refer to this date as the date of the “filing of the ‘231 patent” throughout my
`report. The absence of a product using the Innovation, without an underlying
`economic reason for such an absence, is evidence that the Innovation was not
`obvious.
`6. I evaluate two economic factors that should affect whether a company had the
`economic incentive to introduce a product using the Innovation into the United
`States market:
`a. First, I evaluate whether there was a valuable economic opportunity in
`the market for drugs treating inflammatory autoimmune diseases,
`
`2 Ex. 1001 cl. 8.
`
`3 Ex. 2061 (“About Rasuvo™,” Medac Pharma,
`
`www.rasuvo.com/patients/background).
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`example of which include rheumatoid arthritis, PJIA, and psoriasis in the
`United States that could be captured by a product using the Innovation. I
`also evaluate if this was known prior to the filing of the ‘231 patent on
`July 21, 2006.
`b. Next, I evaluate whether there were any substantial entry barriers facing a
`company interested in launching a product in the United States using the
`Innovation before the filing of the ‘231 patent. I also evaluate whether
`such a product existed prior to the filing of the ‘231 patent.
`7. I am being compensated for my time and services at my usual consulting rate of
`$800 per hour. My compensation is not contingent on the content of my
`opinions or on the outcome of this litigation. I was assisted in my research by
`staff at Cornerstone Research who worked under my direction. Appendix C
`contains a list of materials that I have considered in forming my opinions. Each
`of these materials is a type of document that experts in my field would
`reasonably rely upon when forming their opinions. In addition, I have relied
`upon my training and experience as an economist who has studied the
`healthcare industry for over 25 years.
`8. During the course of my analysis I reviewed a variety of materials, including
`public press and academic articles. I also had a discussion with Terri
`Shoemaker, Medac Pharma’s CEO, on November 14, 2014.
`
`9. I hereby declare that all statements made herein of my own knowledge are true
`
`and that all statements made on information and belief are believed to be true;
`
`and further that these statements were made with the knowledge that willful
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`false statements and the like so made are punishable by fine or imprisonment,
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`or both, under 18 U.S.C. 1001. If called to testify as to the truth of the matters
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`stated herein, I could and would testify competently.
`
`10. My opinions are based on currently available information. I reserve the right to
`provide further analysis later in this proceeding if necessary. Also, to the extent
`that new information or data become available, I may supplement my analyses
`and opinions.
`
`III. Summary Of Opinions
`
`11. There was a valuable economic opportunity to manufacture and sell a product
`using the Innovation in the United States prior to the filing of the ‘231 patent.
`The opportunity existed because: (a) potential sales for a product using the
`Innovation were substantial; (b) there were known issues with oral methotrexate
`and prior forms of injectable methotrexate that could be overcome by a product
`like Rasuvo™, which uses the Innovation; and (c) a product like Rasuvo™
`could lower costs for government and employer-sponsored health plans (“third-
`party payors”) and patients by delaying or reducing treatment with expensive
`biologic drugs (“biologics”).
`12. Not only was there a valuable economic opportunity for a product like
`Rasuvo™, there would have been no substantial barriers to entry in this market
`prior to the filing of the ‘231 patent, assuming Petitioner’s assertions regarding
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`the safety of a product using the Innovation are true.4 In other words, any
`company wanting to launch a product using the Innovation in the United States
`would not have faced substantial obstacles to doing so. Methotrexate products
`had been widely used for decades, and the patent on the methotrexate
`compound had expired many years prior. Moreover, (under Petitioner’s
`assertions) there would have been no other potential barriers to entry that were
`substantial, including research and development costs to bring a methotrexate
`product containing the Innovation to market; costs associated with sourcing the
`ingredients of and manufacturing a product containing the Innovation; costs of
`obtaining approval for such a product from the U.S. Food and Drug
`Administration (“FDA”); costs faced by patients in changing treatments; and
`costs to educate physicians and third-party payors on the benefits of such a
`product.
`13. The fact that (a) the economic opportunity was valuable and (b) there were
`(assuming Petitioner’s assertions to be true) no substantial barriers to entry
`indicates that there were no economic reasons discouraging a firm in the United
`States from developing a product that used the Innovation prior to the filing of
`the ‘231 patent. However, no such product existed in the United States prior to
`this date. These facts provide evidence that the Innovation was not obvious.
`
`
`4 I am informed and understand that Petitioner asserts that the subcutaneous
`
`administration of methotrexate at concentrations of more than 30 mg/ml was
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`known and safe prior to the filing of the ‘231 patent. Petition for Inter Partes
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`Review of U.S. Patent No. 8,664,231, Frontier Therapeutics, LLC v. Medac
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`Gesellschaft für klinische Spezialpräparate mbH, 2/22/16 at 20, 36 and 51.
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`IV. Background
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`14. Petitioner has petitioned for IPR of Medac’s ‘231 patent. Claim 1 at issue in
`the ‘231 patent relates to the subcutaneous administration of methotrexate
`solution “at a concentration of more than 30 mg/ml,” for treatment of
`inflammatory autoimmune diseases, i.e., the Innovation.5 I understand that the
`‘231 patent also discusses the delivery mechanism of this concentrated solution
`to potential patients, including “wherein the medicament is contained in an
`injection device for a single application.”6
`15. Otrexup™, which contains methotrexate for subcutaneous administration using
`an autoinjector,7 was filed in December 2012 and approved by the FDA in
`October 20138. It is indicated for the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis,
`
`
`5 Ex. 1001 (United States Patent No. US 8,664,231 B2) claim 1.
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`6 Ex. 1001 (United States Patent No. US 8,664,231 B2) claim 8 .
`
`7 Ex. 2074 at 4, 5, 20 (“Highlights of Prescribing Information: OXTREXUP™,”
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`Drugs@FDA, 11/14,
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`http://www.accessdata.fda.gov/drugsatfda_docs/label/2014/204824s003lbl.pdf).
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`8 Ex. 2068 at 1, 4 (“FDA Approval Letter: Otrexup™,” Drugs@FDA, 10/13/13,
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`http://www.accessdata.fda.gov/drugsatfda_docs/nda/2013/204824Orig1s000Appro
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`v.pdf, ).
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`psoriasis, and PJIA.9 Otrexup™ is sold in four dosage forms: 10 mg/0.4 ml (25
`mg/ml), 15 mg/0.4 ml (37.5 mg/ml), 20 mg/0.4 ml (50 mg/ml), and 25 mg/0.4
`ml (62.5 mg/ml).10 I understand that Otrexup™ is licensed under the ’231
`patent and that these last three dosages use the Innovation.
`16. Medac sells a methotrexate product called Rasuvo™, which uses the
`Innovation.11 It is dispensed via an autoinjector and is approved for the
`treatment of rheumatoid arthritis, psoriasis, and PJIA.12 Rasuvo™ was
`
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`9 Ex. 2068 at 4 (“FDA Approval Letter: Otrexup™,” Drugs@FDA, 10/13/13,
`
`http://www.accessdata.fda.gov/drugsatfda_docs/nda/2013/204824Orig1s000Appro
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`v.pdf, ).
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`10 Ex. 2068 at 4 (“FDA Approval Letter: Otrexup™,” Drugs@FDA, 10/13/13,
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`http://www.accessdata.fda.gov/drugsatfda_docs/nda/2013/204824Orig1s000Appro
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`v.pdf, ).
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`11 Ex. 2075 at 1, 4, and 5 (“Highlights of Prescribing Information: RASUVO™,”
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`Drugs@FDA, 7/14,
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`http://www.accessdata.fda.gov/drugsatfda_docs/label/2014/205776s000lbl.pdf, p.
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`5).
`
`12 Ex. 2069 at 1, 4 (“FDA Approval Letter: Rasuvo™,” Drugs@FDA, 7/10/14,
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`http://www.accessdata.fda.gov/drugsatfda_docs/appletter/2014/205776Orig1s000lt
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`r.pdf, ).
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`approved by the FDA in July 2014.13 Rasuvo™ is sold in ten dosage forms, in
`increments of 2.5 mg, ranging from 7.5 mg/0.15 ml to 30 mg/0.6 ml.14 All ten
`dosage forms have the same concentration, 50 mg/ml, and therefore, I
`understand that all of them use the Innovation.
`
`V. The Development Of A Product Using The Innovation, Like
`Rasuvo™, Presented Companies with A Valuable Economic
`Opportunity
`
`17. A product using the Innovation (like Rasuvo™) represented a valuable
`economic opportunity to companies because it could serve a large and growing
`market; it could provide unique benefits that were not available with existing
`forms of methotrexate; and it could provide cost-savings to third-party payors
`and patients by delaying or reducing the use of expensive alternate forms of
`treatment, such as biologics, for inflammatory autoimmune diseases.
`
`A.
`
`Potential Sales For A Product Using The Innovation Are Substantial,
`And This Was Expected Prior To The Filing Of The ‘231 Patent
`
`
`18. As described above, Rasuvo™ is indicated for the treatment of rheumatoid
`arthritis and psoriasis in adults, and PJIA in children. As will be described in
`
`13 Ex. 2069 at 8 (“FDA Approval Letter: Rasuvo™,” Drugs@FDA, 7/10/14,
`
`http://www.accessdata.fda.gov/drugsatfda_docs/appletter/2014/205776Orig1s000lt
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`r.pdf,).
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`14 Ex. 2069 at 4 (“FDA Approval Letter: Rasuvo™,” Drugs@FDA, 7/10/14,
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`http://www.accessdata.fda.gov/drugsatfda_docs/appletter/2014/205776Orig1s000lt
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`r.pdf, ).
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`this section, these conditions affect a substantial number of patients in the
`United States, and in the mid-2000s, the market for these conditions was
`expected to grow. Moreover, the available treatment options of using
`methotrexate and expensive biologic drugs meant that there was a substantial
`market opportunity in the United States for a drug like Rasuvo™ that could
`delay or reduce the use of biologics.15
`
`19. The three conditions that Rasuvo™ is indicated to treat affect a large number of
`people in the United States in the mid-2000s. Specifically, rheumatoid arthritis
`affected an estimated 1.3 million adults in the United States in 2005.16 An
`estimated 294,000 children had a rheumatic condition in the period 2001–
`2004,17 and currently, more than 300,000 children in the United States are
`estimated to have juvenile idiopathic arthritis.18 Psoriasis affected an estimated
`
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`15 Ex. 2012 (Bingham SJ et al. “Parenteral methotrexate should be given before
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`biological therapy,” Rheumatology, 2003, vol. 42: 1009-1010).
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`16 Ex. 2041 at 4 (Helmick, C. et al. (2008), “Estimates of the Prevalence of
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`Arthritis and Other Rheumatic Conditions in the United States,” Arthritis and
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`Rheumatism, Vol. 58, No. 1, pp. 15–25).
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`17 Ex. 2041 at 5 (Helmick, C. et al. (2008), “Estimates of the Prevalence of
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`Arthritis and Other Rheumatic Conditions in the United States,” Arthritis and
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`Rheumatism, Vol. 58, No. 1, pp. 15–25).
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`18 Juvenile idiopathic arthritis may be categorized into several subtypes, of which
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`PJIA is one. Ex. 2078 at 1 (“Juvenile Idiopathic Arthritis (JIA),” NYU Langone
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`5 million adults in the United States in 2003-2004,19 and 7.4 million adults in
`the United States in 2013.20
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`20. Rheumatoid arthritis, psoriasis, and PJIA in children are often treated with
`either methotrexate21 or with biologic drugs. Methotrexate represents a “first-
`
`
`Medical Center Division of Pediatric Rheumatology,
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`http://pediatrics.med.nyu.edu/rheumatology/patient-care/juvenile-idiopathic-
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`arthritis-jia).
`
`19 Ex. 2043 at 1 (Kurd, S. et al. (2009), “The Prevalence of Previously Diagnosed
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`and Undiagnosed Psoriasis in US Adults,” Journal of the American Academy of
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`Dermatology, Vol. 60, Issue 2, pp. 218–224).
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`20 Ex. 2048 at 1 (Rachakonda, T. et al. (2014), “Psoriasis Prevalence Among
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`Adults in the United States,” Journal of the American Academy of Dermatology,
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`Vol. 70, No. 3, pp. 512–516).
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`21 Methotrexate is a Disease-Modifying Antirheumatic Drug (DMARD).
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`DMARDs slow the inflammation of joints caused by rheumatoid arthritis and
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`PJIA. Methotrexate is one of the most widely used DMARDs. Other DMARDs
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`prescribed to treat rheumatoid arthritis include: apremilast, azathioprine,
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`cyclophosphamide, hydroxychloroquine sulfate, leflunomide, mycophenolate
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`mofetil, sulfasalazine, and tofacitinib. Other DMARDs prescribed to treat juvenile
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`idiopathic arthritis include: azathioprine, cyclosporine, hydroxychloroquine,
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`line” treatment for rheumatoid arthritis and PJIA, i.e., doctors commonly
`choose methotrexate as the first course of treatment after diagnosis.22 The
`American College of Rheumatology
`recommends
`the “initiation of
`methotrexate or leflunomide monotherapy for patients with all disease durations
`
`
`leflunomide, and sulfasalazine. Ex. 2067 (“Drug Guide: DMARDs,” Arthritis
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`Foundation, http://www.arthritistoday.org/arthritis-treatment/medications/types-of-
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`drugs/disease-modifying-drugs/drug-guide-dmards.php); Ex. 2065 (“Arthritis
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`Today Drug Guide,” Arthritis Foundation, http://www.arthritistoday.org/arthritis-
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`treatment/medications/drug-guide/search-by-class.php?drugclass=DMARDs); Ex.
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`2039 at 13 (Gowdie, P. (2010), “Review of Disease-Modifying Anti Rheumatic
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`Drugs in Paediatric Rheumatic Disease,” 18th Expert Committee on the Selection
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`and Use of Essential Medicines).
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`22 Ex. 1014 at 2 (“Methotrexate as the anchor drug’ for the treatment of early
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`rheumatoid arthritis,” Clinical and Experimental Rheumatology, 2003, S-179 to S-
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`185 at S-180); Ex. 2066 (“DMARDs for Juvenile Idiopathic Arthritis: A Review
`
`of the Research for Parents and Caregivers,” John M. Eisenberg Center for
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`Clinical Decisions and Communications Science, Baylor College of Medicine,
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`9/26/11, http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmedhealth/PMH0016454/).
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`and for all degrees of disease activity….”23 Methotrexate is also taken in
`combination with other drugs in certain situations.24 For psoriasis, methotrexate
`is considered to be “second-line” treatment, used when a patient has moderate
`to severe psoriasis but is unresponsive to or unable to take topical medications
`or ultraviolet light therapy. Methotrexate is the most widely prescribed
`systemic (non-topical) therapy for psoriasis.25
`
`23 Ex. 2049 at 7 (Saag, K. et al. (2008), “American College of Rheumatology 2008
`
`Recommendations for the Use of Nonbiologic and Biologic Disease-Modifying
`
`Antirheumatic Drugs in Rheumatoid Arthritis,” Arthritis & Rheumatism (Arthritis
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`Care & Research), Vol. 59, No. 6, pp. 762–784).
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`24 Ex. 2049 at 7 (Saag, K. et al. (2008), “American College of Rheumatology 2008
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`Recommendations for the Use of Nonbiologic and Biologic Disease-Modifying
`
`Antirheumatic Drugs in Rheumatoid Arthritis,” Arthritis & Rheumatism (Arthritis
`
`Care & Research), Vol. 59, No. 6, pp. 762–784); Ex. 2066 (“DMARDs for
`
`Juvenile Idiopathic Arthritis: A Review of the Research for Parents and
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`Caregivers,” John M. Eisenberg Center for Clinical Decisions and
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`Communications Science, Baylor College of Medicine, 9/26/11,
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`http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmedhealth/PMH0016454/).
`
`25 Ex. 2044 at 2 (Menter, A. et al. (2009), “Guidelines of Care for the Management
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`of Psoriasis and Psoriatic Arthritis: Section 4,” Journal of the American Academy
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`of Dermatology, Vol. 61, No. 3, pp. 451–485).
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`21. Biologic drugs can also be used to treat all three indications, sometimes in
`combination with methotrexate. For rheumatoid arthritis and PJIA, this usually
`occurs only when non-biologic drugs have been ineffective.26 For psoriasis,
`both methotrexate and biologics are second-line treatments.27
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`Attorney Docket No.
`110670-0010-651
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`22. Prior to the filing of the ‘231 patent, industry observers expected that the
`rheumatoid arthritis market (including the market for methotrexate, other
`DMARDs and biologics) would grow significantly over time. An article
`published in Nature Reviews Drug Discovery in 2005 discussed how the global
`
`
`26 Ex. 2049 at 9-10 (Saag, K. et al. (2008), “American College of Rheumatology
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`2008 Recommendations for the Use of Nonbiologic and Biologic Disease-
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`Modifying Antirheumatic Drugs in Rheumatoid Arthritis,” Arthritis & Rheumatism
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`(Arthritis Care & Research), Vol. 59, No. 6, pp. 762–784); Ex. 2083 (“Questions
`
`and Answers about Juvenile Arthritis,” National Institute of Arthritis and
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`Musculoskeletal and Skin Diseases, 8/13,
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`http://www.niams.nih.gov/Health_Info/Juv_Arthritis/#1); Ex. 2038 at 4 (Goutsou,
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`M. et al. (2013), “Biologics Utilization for Rheumatoid Arthritis in the United
`
`States: An Observational Longitudinal Study,” Journal of Medical Marketing,
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`Vol. 13, No. 2, pp. 74–81).
`
`27 Ex. 2044 (Menter, A. et al. (2009), “Guidelines of Care for the Management of
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`Psoriasis and Psoriatic Arthritis: Section 4,” Journal of the American Academy of
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`Dermatology, Vol. 61, No. 3, pp. 451–485).
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`market for rheumatoid arthritis was projected to be more competitive over time,
`with “tremendous potential for growth” and expected compounded annual
`growth rates of 24.4% over the period from 2003 to 2008.28 Similar to the
`rheumatoid arthritis market, the market for psoriasis was expected to grow
`considerably in the period 2005–2015. A report by Datamonitor published in
`2006 projected that sales of psoriasis drugs would exceed $2.3 billion in the
`U.S. alone by 2015, compared to global sales of $1.95 billion in 2005.29
`
`23. Actual growth in these markets has been in line with these projections. Total
`prescriptions of methotrexate for rheumatoid arthritis and PJIA have been
`increasing and totaled 5.4 million in 2013, compared to 4.3 million in 2007
`(Exhibit 1).30 Dollar sales of methotrexate for the rheumatoid arthritis and PJIA
`
`28 Ex. 2046 (Mount, C. et al. (2005), “Rheumatoid Arthritis Market,” Nature
`
`Reviews Drug Discovery, Vol. 4).
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`29 Ex. 2082 at 2 (“Psoriasis Treatments with Next Generation Vitamin D Analogs,”
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`Wisconsin Alumni Research Foundation, http://www.warf.org/for-
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`industry/vitamin-d/psoriasis/psoriasis.cmsx).
`
`30 Exhibits 1–8 are constructed using a dataset provided by Medac. The set of
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`biologic drugs used in the analysis is also derived from the same data. I
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`understand from Medac that for these drugs, data from primary care physicians
`
`(including rheumatologists) and nurses generally correspond to prescriptions/sales
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`of rheumatoid arthritis; data from dermatologists generally correspond to
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`prescriptions/sales of psoriasis; and data from the pediatricians generally
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`indications have also been increasing. In 2013, dollar sales totaled $560.4
`million, up from $461.8 million in 2007 (Exhibit 2). Prescriptions of
`methotrexate (oral and injectable) for psoriasis in the United States rose from
`approximately 179,000 in 2007 to approximately 288,000 in 2013 (Exhibit 3).
`Total dollar sales of methotrexate for psoriasis were $24.4 million in 2013,
`compared to $17.2 million in 2007 (Exhibit 4).
`
`24. The size of the biologics market for these three indications is also large and
`growing. For instance, Exhibit 5 shows that total prescriptions of biologics for
`rheumatoid arthritis and PJIA rose from 2 million in 2007 to 3.3 million in
`2013. Dollar sales rose even more dramatically. Exhibit 6 shows that dollar
`sales of these drugs rose from $3.8 billion in 2007 to $10.7 billion in 2013 for
`these two indications.31 A study in the Journal of Medical Marketing also
`found that the use of biologics rose from 18.7% to 26.3% of all rheumatoid
`
`
`correspond to prescriptions/sales of PJIA. Restricting the analysis for each
`
`indication to only drugs that are currently approved to treat the relevant indication
`
`does not change my conclusions. MEDAC-NJ 0002040. Conversation with Mary
`
`Theresa (Terri) Shoemaker (CEO, Medac Pharma), 11/14/14.
`
`31 These figures include sales of Actemra®, Cimzia®, Enbrel®, Humira®,
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`Kineret®, Orencia®, Remicade®, Rituxan®, Simponi®, and Stelara®.
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`arthritis cases in the United States between 2005 and 2010.32 Prescriptions for
`biologics in the treatment of psoriasis rose from approximately 469,000 in 2007
`to 538,000 in 2013 (Exhibit 7), and dollar sales rose from $1.1 billion to $1.8
`billion over the same time period (Exhibit 8).
`
`25. The market opportunity for a drug using the Innovation like RasuvoTM arises
`from the large size of the market, as reflected by the substantial sales of
`methotrexate and biologic drugs, as well as from the ability of the Innovation to
`delay or reduce the use of high-cost biologics. Exhibit 9 shows that the average
`sales price (price net of any discounts or rebates from the company) per month
`of rheumatoid arthritis treatment with methotrexate was between $1 and $25 in
`2014. In contrast, the average sales price per month for biologic treatment of
`rheumatoid arthritis was approximately between $1,100 and $13,400. For
`psoriasis, despite both methotrexate and biologics being second-line
`treatments,33 many third-party payors require doctors to try methotrexate prior
`
`
`32 Ex. 2038 at 4 (Goutsou, M. et al. (2013), “Biologics Utilization for Rheumatoid
`
`Arthritis in the United States: An Observational Longitudinal Study,” Journal of
`
`Medical Marketing, Vol. 13, No. 2, pp. 74–81).
`
`33 Ex. 2044 at 2 (Menter, A. et al. (2009), “Guidelines of Care for the Management
`
`of Psoriasis and Psoriatic Arthritis: Section 4,” Journal of the American Academy
`
`of Dermatology, Vol. 61, No. 3, pp. 451–485).
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`to using a biologic due to the high cost of biologic treatments.34 For example, a
`2010 study estimated that the total annual per-patient costs for systemic
`psoriasis therapy using methotrexate was slightly over $1,000, whereas biologic
`treatment for psoriasis cost between $18,000 and $28,000.35 As such, any drug
`that could delay or reduce the use of biologic treatment for rheumatoid arthritis,
`PJIA, and psoriasis would be presented with a substantial market opportunity in
`the United States. I explain why a drug like Rasuvo™ could delay the use of
`biologics from a therapeutic perspective in Section V.B. and how a drug like
`Rasuvo™ could lower costs for third-party payors and patients by delating the
`use of biologic treatments in Section V.C.
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`
`
`B.
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`Patients May Prefer A Product Using The Innovation Versus Pre-
`Existing Forms of Methotrexate
`
`
`26. As described above, methotrexate is widely used to