Therapeutic Categories Outlook
`
`Comprehensive Study
`
`Conclusion: The $600B worldwide pharmaceutical industry is positioned to
`deliver mid-single-digit growth supported by promising R&D pipelines. This
`comprehensive study forecasts trends in the major therapeutic drug categories
`through 2013. Each category is defined by therapeutic need, market size,
`growth outlook, major new compounds in development, and an assessment of
`individual company prospects. The companies predicted to lead in “Market
`Share”, “Market Share Gain”, “Market Share Loss”, “Total Therapeutic Positions”,
`and “Leading Therapeutic Positions” are detailed below.
`
`
`September 2008
`
`Analysts
`Cowen Pharmaceutical Research
`Team
`(617) 946-3923
`
`
`Cowen Biotech Research Team
`(646) 562-1000
`
`
`Cowen Med Tech Research Team
`(646) 562-1000
`
`
`
`
`Please see addendum
`of this report for
`important disclosures.
`www.cowen.com
`
`
`
`
`Which Companies Will Lead Industry Through 2013?
`
`Market Share
`GlaxoSmithKline
`Sanofi-Aventis
`Roche
`Pfizer
`Johnson & Johnson
`
`Market Share Gain
`Wyeth
`Schering-Plough
`Abbott
`Genentech
`
`
`Market Share Loss
`Johnson & Johnson
`Merck
`Sanofi-Aventis
`AstraZeneca
`Eli Lilly
`
`Total Therapeutic
`Positions
`Novartis (13)
`Pfizer (11)
`Johnson & Johnson (9)
`Merck (9)
`
`
`Leading Therapeutic
`Positions
`Eli Lilly (3)
`GlaxoSmithKline (3)
`Schering-Plough (3)
`Wyeth (3)
`
`
`
`
`GLOBAL PHARMACEUTICAL INDUSTRY VALUATION PERSPECTIVE
`EPS
`P/E Ratios
`Relative
`Calendar Year
`Absolute
`2008
`2009
`2008
`2009
`2008E
`2009E
`
`09/22/08
`Price
`
`Ticker
`
`Rating
`
`LARGE CAP - US
`Abbott Laboratories
`AstraZeneca
`Amgen
`Bristol-Myers Squibb
`Eli Lilly
`Genentech
`GlaxoSmithKline
`Johnson & Johnson
`Merck
`Novartis
`Pfizer
`Schering-Plough
`Wyeth
`
`
`
`ABT
`AZN
`AMGN
`BMY
`LLY
`DNA
`GSK
`JNJ
`MRK
`NVS
`PFE
`SGP
`WYE
`
`1
`2
`1
`2
`1
`2
`2
`1
`1
`1
`2
`2
`2
`
`$59
`47
`58
`20
`46
`91
`45
`68
`31
`54
`18
`18
`38
`
`$3.24
`4.80
`4.40
`1.60
`3.95
`3.45
`4.16
`4.44
`3.20
`3.75
`2.35
`1.60
`3.50
`
`$3.69
`4.85
`4.65
`1.75
`4.20
`3.95
`4.32
`4.70
`3.45
`4.10
`2.55
`1.75
`3.70
`
`18.1
`9.7
`13.1
`12.7
`11.6
`26.5
`10.8
`15.3
`9.6
`14.4
`7.7
`11.3
`10.7
`
`15.9
`9.6
`12.4
`11.6
`10.9
`23.2
`10.4
`14.5
`8.9
`13.1
`7.1
`10.4
`10.1
`
`143%
`77%
`103%
`100%
`92%
`210%
`86%
`121%
`76%
`114%
`61%
`90%
`85%
`
`134%
`81%
`104%
`98%
`92%
`195%
`88%
`122%
`75%
`111%
`60%
`87%
`86%
`
`2007-13
`CAGR
`
`+13%
`+2%
`+8%
`+5%
`+1%
`+13%
`+5%
`+9%
`+4%
`+6%
`+1%
`+11%
`+6%
`
`
`
`Petitioner Mylan Pharmaceuticals Inc. - Exhibit 1063 - Page 1
`
`

`
`25,692
`24,944
`24,218
`23,512
`22,827
`22,163
`50%
`50%
`50%
`50%
`50%
`50%
`12,846
`12,472
`12,109
`11,756
`11,414
`11,081
`+3%
`+3%
`+3%
`+3%
`+3%
`+3%
`49%
`49%
`49%
`48%
`48%
`47%
`6,295
`6,111
`5,933
`5,643
`5,479
`5,253
`73%
`73%
`73%
`72%
`72%
`72%
`4,595
`4,461
`4,331
`4,063
`3,945
`3,782
`46%
`45%
`45%
`44%
`44%
`43%
`2044
`2066
`1999
`1,889
`1,774
`1,636
`16%
`17%
`17%
`16%
`16%
`15%
`22,181
`22,004
`21,279
`20,069
`18,838
`17,313
`+1%
`+3%
`+6%
`+7%
`+9%
`+6%
`9%
`28%
`29%
`32%
`35%
`39%
`2,001
`6,202
`6,202
`6,403
`6,603
`6,776
`-68%
`+0%
`-3%
`-3%
`-3%
`-2%
`$3.50
`$3.50
`$3.50
`$3.50
`$3.50
`$3.31
`$118.06 $124.95 $124.95 $124.95 $124.95 $124.95
`$800
`$825
`$800
`$775
`$775
`$250
`9%
`8%
`8%
`8%
`8%
`8%
`1,539
`
`
`
`
`
`
`1,576
`1,626
`1,675
`1,724
`1,773
`+39%
`+2%
`+3%
`+3%
`+3%
`+3%
`$2.78
`$2.90
`$2.90
`$2.90
`$2.90
`$2.90
`$97.47 $101.50 $101.50 $101.50 $101.50 $101.50
`$150
`$160
`$165
`$170
`$175
`$180
`2%
`2%
`1%
`1%
`1%
`1%
`362
`299
`251
`216
`181
`153
`-86%
`-17%
`-16%
`-14%
`-16%
`-15%
`$4.09
`$4.09
`$4.09
`$4.09
`$4.09
`$4.09
`$143.6
`$143.6
`$143.6
`$143.6
`$143.6
`$143.6
`$52
`$43
`$36
`$31
`$26
`$22
`3%
`2%
`1%
`1%
`1%
`1%
`509
`328
`287
`246
`246
`246
`-15%
`-35%
`-13%
`-14%
`+0%
`+0%
`$3.45
`$3.45
`$3.45
`$3.45
`$3.45
`$3.45
`$121.8
`$121.8
`$121.8
`$121.8
`$121.8
`$121.8
`$62
`$40
`$35
`$30
`$30
`$30
`2%
`2%
`2%
`2%
`2%
`2%
`395
`395
`395
`395
`395
`395
`-10%
`+0%
`+0%
`+0%
`+0%
`+0%
`$2.69
`$2.69
`$2.69
`$2.69
`$2.69
`$2.69
`$35
`$35
`$35
`$35
`$35
`$35
`12%
`13%
`13%
`13%
`13%
`14%
`2,529
`2,065
`
`
`
`
`
`
`2,697
`2,824
`2,950
`3,034
`+59%
`+22%
`+7%
`+5%
`+4%
`+3%
`$3.39
`$3.39
`$3.39
`$3.39
`$3.39
`$3.39
`$245
`$300
`$320
`$335
`$350
`$360
`2%
`5%
`9%
`11%
`12%
`14%
`3,003
`2,360
`1,716
`858
`429
`
`
`
`
`
`
`2,574
`+10% +100% +100%
`+38%
`+9%
`+17%
`$3.33
`$3.33
`$3.33
`$3.33
`$3.33
`$3.33
`$50
`$100
`$200
`$275
`$300
`$350
`2%
`5%
`7%
`9%
`444
`1,111
`1,481
`2,037
`+150%
`+33%
`+38%
`$4.50
`$4.50
`$4.50
`$150
`$200
`$275
`29%
`28%
`23%
`6,250
`6,250
`5,038
`$75
`$75
`$65
`20%
`4,500
`$45
`$0
`
`$0
`
`$0
`
`$0
`
`$0
`
`$0
`
`30%
`5,238
`$100
`
`33%
`6,250
`$75
`
`$4.50
`$60
`31%
`6,250
`$75
`
`+4% - 18MM+ Americans with overactive bladder
`
`+4% - Includes portion of patients with mixed UI
`
`+5%
`
`+5%
`
`- NAFC survey (100K members) showed 50%+
`
`- Newer products with lower side effects and longer
` duration improve compliance and retention
`
`+6% - Products with lower side effects improving
` retention and pharmacotherapy usage
`- Tolterodine; 1x daily
`- Competitive pressures due to new product launches in recent months
`
`+1% - Less dry mouth, once-daily profile still keeps it a leader until 2012
`- Rx share has seen little change in past 12 months
`
`- Genericized in 2006
`
`NA
`
`+1%
`
`- Genericized
`
`-
`
`-21%
`
`- Oxybutynin patch; improved side-effect profile
`- Marketed by Women's Health, GP Division & CSO
`
`NA
`
`- Launched in Q1:05
`- GlaxoSmithKline co-markets in U.S. with Astellas; strong launch
`
`NA
`
`- 2007A based on IMS sales data
`- Approved 5/04; launched Q3:04
`
`- Allergan markets via acquisition of Esprit in 2007
`
`NA
`
`NA
`
`- Fesoterodine; overactive bladder; approvable; H2 08 in EU, early 2009
`- Improved side-effect profile compared to Detrol
`-
`
`- Share decline with launch of new therapies
`
`- Share decline with launch of new therapies
`- Detrol LA generic expected 2012
`
`-8% - Other generics (flavoxate, etc.)
`
`+6% - Improved treatments, better compliance
` (Market sales include generics)
`
`
`
`Therapeutic Categories Outlook
`
`ESTIMATED U.S. MARKET FOR URINARY NCONTINENCE DRUGS*
`2007
`2008P
`2009P
`2010P
`2011P
`2012P
`CGR
`Comment
`
`
`
`U.S. Population/Prescriptions (000's)
`Overactive Bladder Sufferers
` % With Urge UI Symptoms
`Urge/Urge Predominant UI Sufferers
` % Growth
`% UUI Patients Seeking Treatment
`UUI Patients Seeking Treatment
`Drug Therapy Market Share
`UUI Patients Placed On Drug Tx
`Drug Therapy Retention Factor
`UUI Patients Compliant With Tx
`% UUI Patients Compliant With Tx
`Number of Scrips Filled/Year
` % Growth
`Detrol LA (PFE) Market Share
` Prescriptions (000's)
` % Growth
` Price Therapy/Day
` Price/Prescription
`Detrol LA Sales ($MM)
`Enablex (NVS) Market Share
` Prescriptions (000's)
` % Growth
` Price Therapy/Day
` Price/Prescription
`Enablex Sales ($MM)
`Ditropan XL (JNJ) Market Share
` Prescriptions (000's)
` % Growth
` Price Therapy/Day
` Price/Prescription
`Ditropan XL Sales ($MM)
`Detrol (PFE) Market Share
` Prescriptions (000's)
` % Growth
` Price Therapy/Day
` Price/Prescription
`Detrol Sales ($MM)
`Oxytrol (WPI) Market Share
` Prescriptions (000's)
` % Growth
` Price Therapy/Day
`Oxytrol Sales ($MM)
`Vesicare (YM-905) Market Share
` Prescriptions (000's)
` % Growth
` Price Therapy/Day
`Vesicare Sales ($MM)
`Sanctura/XR (Allergan) Market Share
` Prescriptions (000's)
` % Growth
` Price Therapy/Day
`Sanctura Sales ($MM)
`Toviaz (PFE) Market Share
` Prescriptions (000's)
` % Growth
` Price Therapy/Day
`Toviaz Sales ($MM)
`Generic Oxybutynin Market Share
` Prescriptions (000's)
`Oxybutynin Generics Sales ($MM)
`Generic Detrol LA Market Share
` Prescriptions (000's)
`Detrol LA Generics Sales ($MM)
`Other Therapies Sales ($MM)
`
`Total UUI Drug Sales ($MM)
` % Growth
`Source: Cowen and Company estimates, IMS America.
`* Patient population and scrips in 000's; sales in $MM.
`
`$1,494
`-1%
`
`$1,578
`+6%
`
`$1,726
`+9%
`
`$1,876
`+9%
`
`$1,966
`+5%
`
`$1,612
`-18%
`
`
`
`1155
`
`Petitioner Mylan Pharmaceuticals Inc. - Exhibit 1063 - Page 2
`
`

`
`Addendum
`
`STOCKS MENTIONED IN IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES
`Company Name
`Abbott
`Amgen
`AstraZeneca PLC (ADR)
`Bristol-Myers Squibb
`Genentech
`GlaxoSmithKline plc (ADR)
`Johnson & Johnson
`Eli Lilly
`Merck
`Novartis (ADR)
`Pfizer
`Schering-Plough
`Wyeth
`
`
`
`Ticker
`ABT
`AMGN
`AZN
`BMY
`DNA
`GSK
`JNJ
`LLY
`MRK
`NVS
`PFE
`SGP
`WYE
`
`
`
`ANALYST CERTIFICATION
`Each author of this research report hereby certifies that (i) the views expressed in the research report accurately reflect his or her
`personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers, and (ii) no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be
`related, directly or indirectly, to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
`
`
`
`IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES
`
`
`Cowen and Company, LLC and or its affiliates make a market in the stock of AMGN securities.
`
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`
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`
`DISCLAIMER
`
`
`This research is for our clients only. Our research is disseminated primarily electronically and, in some cases, in printed form.
`Research distributed electronically is available simultaneously to all Cowen and Company, LLC clients. All published research,
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`
`1167
`
`Petitioner Mylan Pharmaceuticals Inc. - Exhibit 1063 - Page 3
`
`

`
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`
`Rating
`Outperform (1)
`Neutral (2)
`Underperform (3)
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`
`Definition
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`1.9%
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`3.4%
`0.0%
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`
`1168
`
`Petitioner Mylan Pharmaceuticals Inc. - Exhibit 1063 - Page 4