Therapeutic Categories Outlook
`
`
`October 2007
`
`Comprehensive Study
`
`Pharmaceuticals
`(617) 946-3700
`
`Biotechnology
`(646) 562-1000
`
`Medical Supplies & Devices
`(646) 562-1000
`
`
`Conclusion: The $560B worldwide pharmaceutical industry is positioned to
`deliver mid-single-digit growth supported by promising R&D pipelines. This
`comprehensive study forecasts trends in the major therapeutic drug categories
`through 2012. Each category is defined by therapeutic need, market size,
`growth outlook, major new compounds in development, and an assessment of
`individual company prospects. The companies predicted to lead in “Market
`Share,” “Market Share Gain,” “Market Share Loss,” “Total Therapeutic Positions,”
`and “Leading Therapeutic Positions” are detailed below.
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`Which Companies Will Lead Industry Through 2012?
`
`Market Share
`GlaxoSmithKline
`Sanofi-Aventis
`Roche
`AstraZeneca
`Novartis
`Pfizer
`
`
`Market Share Gain
`Schering-Plough
`Genentech
`Roche
`Novartis
`Abbott
`Eli Lilly
`
`Market Share Loss
`Pfizer
`Merck
`GlaxoSmithKline
`Sanofi-Aventis
`Bristol-Myers Squibb
`Wyeth
`
`Total Therapeutic
`Positions
`Novartis (12)
`Pfizer (11)
`GlaxoSmithKline (9)
`Johnson & Johnson (9)
`Merck (9)
`Sanofi-Aventis (9)
`
`Leading Therapeutic
`Positions
`Bristol-Myers Squibb (3)
`Merck (3)
`Sanofi-Aventis (3)
`Schering-Plough (3)
`
`
`
`GLOBAL PHARMACEUTICAL INDUSTRY VALUATION PERSPECTIVE
`P/E Ratios
`Diluted
`Absolute
`Cal. Year EPS
`2007
`2008
`2007E 2008E
`
`Ticker
`
`Rating*
`
`09/28/07
`Price
`
`Relative
`2006
`2007
`
`LARGE CAP - US
`$54
`1
`ABT
`Abbott Laboratories
`57
`1
`AMGN
`Amgen
`50
`2
`AZN
`AstraZeneca
`29
`3
`BMY
`Bristol-Myers Squibb
`57
`1
`LLY
`Eli Lilly
`78
`2
`DNA
`Genentech
`53
`2
`GSK
`GlaxoSmithKline
`66
`1
`JNJ
`Johnson & Johnson
`52
`1
`MRK
`Merck
`24
`2
`PFE
`Pfizer
`32
`1
`SGP
`Schering-Plough
`45
`2
`WYE
`Wyeth
`*Ratings: 1 Outperform; 2 Neutral; 3 Underperform
`Source: Cowen and Company estimates and First Call
`
`
`
`$2.84
`4.20
`4.10
`1.40
`3.45
`2.95
`3.84
`4.04
`3.00
`2.10
`1.35
`3.48
`
`$3.26
`4.25
`4.25
`1.65
`3.65
`3.55
`3.88
`4.40
`3.30
`2.30
`1.75
`3.65
`
`18.9
`13.6
`12.2
`20.6
`16.5
`26.4
`13.9
`16.3
`17.2
`11.6
`23.4
`12.8
`
`16.4
`13.4
`11.8
`17.5
`15.6
`22.0
`13.7
`14.9
`15.7
`10.6
`18.1
`12.2
`
`123%
`84%
`75%
`154%
`103%
`202%
`82%
`101%
`118%
`68%
`220%
`82%
`
`117%
`84%
`76%
`128%
`102%
`164%
`86%
`101%
`107%
`72%
`145%
`79%
`
`
`
`2008
`
`108%
`88%
`78%
`115%
`103%
`145%
`90%
`98%
`103%
`70%
`119%
`80%
`
`2006-12
`CAGR
`
`+13%
`+8%
`+4%
`+7%
`+7%
`+16%
`+4%
`+10%
`+8%
`+1%
`+23%
`+3%
`
`
`
`Petitioner Mylan Pharmaceuticals Inc. - Exhibit 1062 - Page 1
`
`

`
`Therapeutic Categories Outlook
`
`Drug Class
`Anticholinergic Agents
`Newer Therapies
`
`2012P
`2006
`Market % Total Market % Total
`$1,422
`78%
`$522
`15%
`407
`22%
`2,905
`85%
`
`ESTIMATED WORLDWIDE MARKET FOR URINARY INCONTINENCE DRUGS BY CLASS ($MM)
`$
`NRx
`‘06-12
`‘87-06
`CGR
`CGR Comments
`-15%
`NA - PFE's Detrol LA, JNJ's Ditropan XL
`NM
`NM - NVS' Enablex, WPI's Oxytrol,
`Astellas/GSK's Vesicare, Indevus'
`Sanctura
`16% - Driven by switch to drug therapy
`
`100% $3,427
`
`100%
`
`11%
`
`$1,829
`Total Market
`Source: Cowen and Company estimates
`
`
`
`ESTIMATED U.S. MARKET FOR URINARY INCONTINENCE DRUGS*
`2006
`2007E
`2008E
`2009E
`2010E
`2011E
`2012E
`
`CGR
`
`Comment
`
`21,517
`+3%
`+3%
`49%
`10,584
`41%
`4,359
`40%
`1,742
`16%
`16,373
`+8%
`
`22,163
`+3%
`+3%
`50%
`11,070
`43%
`4,742
`38%
`1,821
`16%
`17,241
`+5%
`
`22,827
`+3%
`+3%
`50%
`11,471
`43%
`4,963
`40%
`1,976
`17%
`18,758
`+9%
`
`23,512
`+3%
`+3%
`50%
`11,815
`44%
`5,143
`41%
`2,124
`18%
`20,222
`+8%
`
`24,218
`+3%
`+3%
`51%
`12,290
`45%
`5,476
`42%
`2,320
`19%
`22,189
`+10%
`
`24,944
`+3%
`+3%
`51%
`12,659
`45%
`5,640
`44%
`2,466
`20%
`23,671
`+7%
`
`25,692
`+3%
`+3%
`51%
`13,039
`45%
`5,809
`44%
`2,533
`20%
`24,794
`+5%
`
`+3% - 20MM+ Americans with overactive bladder
`- Modest growth assumed
`
`- Patients seeking treatment increase with better
` diagnosis, availability of newer treatments
`- Drug therapy market share expands modestly
`
`- Newer products with fewer side effects and longer
` duration drive usage
`
`+4%
`
`+5%
`
`+6%
`
`+7% - Newer products for urge incontinence drive
` growth
`
`- Tolterodine; 1x daily
`-18% - Launched 1/01
`- Improved side-effect profile compared to Detrol
`- Priced similar to Ditropan XL
`
`-18%
`
`- Oxybutynin
`-36% - Launched 2/99 for overactive bladder
`- Generics launched 11/06
`
`-36%
`
`- Oxybutynin patch; improved side-effect profile
`+8% - WPI has reduced marketing support
`
`9%
`29%
`31%
`34%
`38%
`41%
`42%
`2,180
`6,976
`6,976
`6,976
`7,194
`7,063
`6,915
`$3.21
`$3.21
`$3.21
`$3.21
`$3.21
`$3.21
`$3.21
`$114.68 $114.68 $114.68 $114.68 $114.68 $114.68 $114.68
`$793
`$810
`$825
`$800
`$800
`$800
`$250
`16%
`3%
`2%
`1%
`1%
`1%
`1%
`2,662
`529
`355
`298
`256
`215
`182
`$3.45
`$3.45
`$3.45
`$3.45
`$3.45
`$3.45
`$3.45
`$322
`$64
`$43
`$36
`$31
`$26
`$22
`3%
`3%
`3%
`3%
`3%
`3%
`3%
`441
`462
`513
`564
`615
`667
`718
`$2.95
`$2.95
`$2.95
`$2.95
`$2.95
`$2.95
`$2.95
`$43
`$45
`$50
`$55
`$60
`$65
`$70
`- Darifenacin
`7%
`7%
`8%
`9%
`10%
`10%
`11%
`+15% - Launched in Q1 05; co-promoted by P&G
`1,104
`1,263
`1,544
`1,824
`2,152
`2,339
`2,620
`- Sold by Pfizer to Novartis in Q1 03
`$3.05
`$3.05
`$3.05
`$3.05
`$3.05
`$3.05
`$3.05
`+15% - Side-effect profile expected to clip potential
`$118
`$135
`$165
`$195
`$230
`$250
`$280
`- Trospium
`2%
`4%
`7%
`10%
`12%
`14%
`15%
`+45% - Current formulation 2x daily dosing
`3,609
`3,222
`2,578
`1,933
`1,289
`773
`389
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`- Esprit licensed via Indevus/ Odyssey July '05
`$2.22
`$2.22
`$2.22
`$2.22
`$2.22
`$2.22
`$2.22
`$280 +40% - 1x daily formulation approved
`$37
`$60
`$100
`$150
`$200
`$250
`- Solifenacin
`8%
`9%
`11%
`12%
`12%
`13%
`13%
`1,297
`1,621
`1,982
`2,342
`2,702
`2,972
`3,243
`+16% - Launched in Q1 05
`$3.17
`$3.17
`$3.17
`$3.17
`$3.17
`$3.17
`$3.17
`- GlaxoSmithKline co-markets in U.S.
`+16% - Astellas holds rights
`$144
`$180
`$220
`$260
`$300
`$330
`$360
`- U.S. approval in early 2009
`2%
`5%
`6%
`8%
`444
`1,111
`1,481
`2,037
`$4.50
`$4.50
`$4.50
`$4.50
`$60
`$150
`$200
`$275
`1%
`1%
`1%
`1%
`290
`249
`249
`249
`$3.42
`$3.42
`$3.42
`$3.42
`$35
`$30
`$30
`$30
`27%
`24%
`23%
`22%
`5,417
`5,417
`5,417
`5,458
`$65
`$65
`$65
`$65
`
`+8%
`
`NM
`
`NM
`
`-14%
`
`-14%
`
`+12%
`+3%
`
`- Tolterodine
`
`- Ditropan XL generics launched 11/06
`
`4%
`597
`$3.42
`$72
`17%
`2,835
`$54
`
`2%
`373
`$3.42
`$45
`29%
`5,023
`$60
`
`2%
`332
`$3.42
`$40
`29%
`5,417
`$65
`
`$2
`$1,585
`+12%
`
`$2
`$1,401
`-12%
`
`$2
`$1,510
`+8%
`
`$2
`$1,658
`+10%
`
`$2
`$1,868
`+13%
`
`$2
`$2,018
`+8%
`
`$2
`$1,679
`-17%
`
`+0% - Other generics (flavoxate, imipramine, etc.)
`+1% - Improved treatments, better compliance
`- Clipped in 2006 by Ditropan XL generics; in 2012 by Detrol LA g
`
`18%
`4,500
`$45
`
`- Share decline with launch of new therapies
`- Detrol LA generic expected 2012
`
`
`
`
`
`U.S. Population/Prescriptions (000's)
`Overactive Bladder Sufferers
` % Growth
` % Growth
`% Incontinence Pts Seeking Treatment
` Incontinence Pts Seeking Treatment
`Drug Therapy Market Share
`Incontinence Pts Placed On Drug Tx
`Drug Therapy Retention Factor
`Incontinence Pts Compliant With Tx
`% Incontinence Pts Compliant With Tx
`Total Prescriptions
` % Growth
`
`Detrol LA PFE) Market Share
` Prescriptions (000's)
` Price Therapy/Day
` Price/Prescription
`Detrol LA Sales ($MM)
`Ditropan XL (JNJ) Market Share
` Prescriptions (000's)
` Price Therapy/Day
`Ditropan XL Sales ($MM)
`Oxytrol (WPI) Market Share
` Prescriptions (000's)
` Price Therapy/Day
`Oxytrol Sales ($MM)
`Enablex (NVS) Market Share
` Prescriptions (000's)
` Price Therapy/Day
`Enablex Sales ($MM)
`Sanctura/XR (Esprit/IDEV) Market Share
` Prescriptions (000's)
` Price Therapy/Day
`Sanctura Sales ($MM)
`Vesicare (Astellas/GSK) Market Share
` Prescriptions (000's)
` Price Therapy/Day
`Vesicare Sales ($MM)
`Fesoterodine (PFE) Market Share
` Prescriptions (000's)
` Price Therapy/Day
`Fesoterodine Sales ($MM)
`Detrol (PFE) Market Share
` Prescriptions (000's)
` Price Therapy/Day
`Detrol Sales ($MM)
`Generic Oxybutynin Market Share
` Prescriptions (000's)
`Oxybutynin Generics Sales ($MM)
`Generic Detrol LA Market Share
` Prescriptions (000's)
`Detrol LA Generics Sales ($MM)
`
`Other Therapies Sales ($MM)
`U.S. Incontinence Drug Sales ($MM)
` % Growth
`Source: Cowen and Company estimates, IMS Monthly Prescriptions.
`* Patient population and scrips in 000's; sales in $MM.
`
`
`
`1020
`
`Petitioner Mylan Pharmaceuticals Inc. - Exhibit 1062 - Page 2
`
`

`
`Therapeutic Categories Outlook
`
`Addendum
`
`STOCKS MENTIONED IN IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES
`Company Name
`Abbott
`Amgen
`AstraZeneca PLC (ADR)
`Bristol-Myers Squibb
`Genentech
`GlaxoSmithKline plc (ADR)
`Johnson & Johnson
`Eli Lilly
`Merck
`Pfizer
`Schering-Plough
`Wyeth
`
`
`
`
`
`Ticker
`ABT
`AMGN
`AZN
`BMY
`DNA
`GSK
`JNJ
`LLY
`MRK
`PFE
`SGP
`WYE
`
`
`
`ANALYST CERTIFICATION
`Each author of this research report hereby certifies that (i) the views expressed in the research report accurately reflect his or her
`personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers, and (ii) no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be
`related, directly or indirectly, to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
`
`
`
`
`Cowen and Company, LLC and or its affiliates make a market in the stock of AMGN securities.
`
`The author(s) of this report own a Long position in the Common shares issued by MRK, PFE, PFE.
`
`IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES
`
` member of author's household owns a Long position in the Common shares issued by AMGN.
`
` A
`
`
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`Copyright, User Agreement and other general information related to this report
`
`
`
`1031
`
`Petitioner Mylan Pharmaceuticals Inc. - Exhibit 1062 - Page 3
`
`

`
`Therapeutic Categories Outlook
`
`
`© 2007 Cowen and Company, LLC. Member NYSE, FINRA and SIPC. All rights reserved. This research report is prepared for the
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`
`Rating
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`Neutral (2)
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`
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`Rating
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`10.2%
`Buy (b)
`46.7%
`4.1%
`Hold (c)
`2.9%
`0.0%
`Sell (d)
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`
`
`1032
`
`Petitioner Mylan Pharmaceuticals Inc. - Exhibit 1062 - Page 4