Therapeutic Categories Outlook
`
`Comprehensive Study
`
`Conclusion: The $485B worldwide pharmaceutical industry is positioned to
`deliver tepid underlying growth, due to numerous patent expirations that
`tarnish the outlook. Nonetheless, R&D pipelines hold more promise than
`generally perceived, and innovative new products temper aggressive managed
`care pricing tactics, which is more important than ever given the formulary-
`based Medicare Drug Benefit. This comprehensive study forecasts trends in the
`major therapeutic drug categories through 2009. Each category is defined by
`therapeutic need, market size, growth outlook, major new compounds in
`development, and an assessment of individual company prospects. The
`companies predicted to lead in “Market Share”, “Market Share Gain”, “Market Share
`Loss”, “Total Therapeutic Positions”, and “Leading Therapeutic Positions” are
`detailed below.
`
`
`
`
`October 2005
`
`Pharmaceuticals
`(617) 946-3700
`
`Biotechnology
`(646) 562-1000
`
`Medical Supplies & Devices
`(646) 562-1000
`
`
`
`Please see addendum
`of this report for
`important disclosures.
`
`
`
`www.sgcowen.com
`
`
`
`
`
`Which Companies Will Lead Industry Through 2009?
`
`Market Share
`GlaxoSmithKline
`Pfizer
`Sanofi-Aventis
`Roche
`AstraZeneca
`Novartis
`
`
`
`Market Share Gain
`Roche
`Genentech
`Amgen
`GlaxoSmithKline
`Sanofi-Aventis
`Novartis
`
`Market Share Loss
`Pfizer
`Merck
`Johnson & Johnson
`Abbott Labs
`Bristol-Myers Squibb
`
`
`Total Therapeutic
`Positions
`Pfizer (14)
`Novartis (12)
`GlaxoSmithKline (10)
`Johnson & Johnson (9)
`Merck (9)
`Sanofi-Aventis (9)
`
`Leading Therapeutic
`Positions
`AstraZeneca (4)
`GlaxoSmithKline (4)
`Sanofi-Aventis (3)
`
`
`
`
`Pharmaceutical Industry Valuation Perspective
`10/04/05
` EPS
`Price
`2005E
`$44
`$2.49
`80
`3.21
`48
`2.82
`24
`1.45
`54
`2.75
`86
`1.18
`51
`2.80
`63
`3.45
`27
`2.48
`51
`2.67
`25
`1.98
`71
`2.35
`42
`2.86
`22
`0.40
`46
`2.90
`
`Ticker
`Abbott Laboratories
`ABT
`AMGN
`Amgen
`AZN
`AstraZeneca *
`Bristol-Myers Squibb
`BMY
`LLY
`Eli Lilly
`DNA
`Genentech
`GSK
`GlaxoSmithKline*
`JNJ
`Johnson & Johnson
`MRK
`Merck
`NVS
`Novartis*
`PFE
`Pfizer
`RHHBY
`Roche*
`SNY
`Sanofi-Aventis*
`Schering-Plough
`SGP
`WYE
`Wyeth
`*Covered by Societe Generale
`Source: SG Cowen & Co.
`
`F04-09
`P/E Ratios
`2006 CAGR
`2006E 2005
`$2.71
`17.7
`16.2
`+10%
`3.65
`25.0
`21.9
`+15%
`3.09
`16.9
`15.4
`+12%
`1.30
`16.5
`18.4
`+1%
`3.05
`19.5
`17.6
`+11%
`1.70
`72.5
`50.3
`+32%
`3.02
`18.3
`16.9
`+10%
`3.77
`18.3
`16.7
`+10%
`2.45
`11.0
`11.1
`-6%
`3.01
`19.1
`16.9
`+12%
`2.10
`12.7
`12.0
`+3%
`2.90
`30.1
`24.4
`+21%
`3.22
`14.6
`13.0
`+15%
`0.70
`NM
`NM
`NM
`3.20
`16.0
`14.5
`+2%
`
`
`
`Petitioner Mylan Pharmaceuticals Inc. - Exhibit 1060 - Page 1
`
`

`
`
`
`Therapeutic Categories Outlook
`
`ESTIMATED U.S. MARKET FOR URINARY INCONTINENCE (STRESS + URGE) DRUGS*
`2004
`2005E
`2006E
`2007E
`2008E
`2009E
`CGR
`Comment
`
`23,512
`+3%
`17,634
`3%
`11,756
`+3%
`50%
`11,815
`44%
`5,174
`43%
`2,231
`19%
`23,777
`+6%
`
`+3% - 20MM+ Americans with overactive bladder
`- Modest growth assumed
`+3% - Includes portion of patients with mixed UI;
`approximately 25% of patients suffer from mixed UI
`+3% - Includes portion of patients with mixed UI
`
`- Patients seeking treatment increase with better
` diagnosis, availability of newer treatments
`- Drug therapy market share expands modestly
`
`+5%
`
`+7%
`
`- Newer products with fewer side effects and longer
` duration drive usage
`
`+10%
`
`+10% - Newer products for urge incontinence drive
`
`- Once-daily LA launched 1/01
`- Improved side-effect profile compared to Detrol
`
`- New treatments with lower side effects clip
`- Launched 2/99 for overactive bladder
`- Patent exclusivity lost in 2006
`
`- Oxybutynin patch; improved side-effect profile
`- WPI has reduced marketing support
`
`- Continued conversion to LA
`
`- Price increases bolster switch to Detrol LA
`
`- Share decline with launch of new UUI therapies
`- Ditropan XL patent exclusivity lost in 2006
`
`38%
`9,082
`$3.30
`$1,070
`3%
`673
`$3.60
`$85
`3%
`802
`$3.40
`$90
`- Sold by Pfizer to Novartis in Q1:2003
`5%
`- Launched in Q1:05; co-promoted by P&G
`1,082
`- Darifenacin; M3 antagonist
`$3.30
`- Side-effect profile expected to clip potential
`$125
`- Approved 5/04; Q3:2004 launch
`4%
`- Twice-daily dosing may limit uptake
`1,039
`
`- Esprit licensed via Indevus/ Odyssey July '05
`$3.30
`$120 +72% - Once-daily XR version is in Phase III trials
`- NDA Filing 12/02; launched in Q1:05
`5%
`1,299
`- GlaxoSmithKline co-marketing in U.S.
`$3.30
`- Astellas (Yamanouchi + Fujisawa) holds rights
`$150
`5%
`1,116
`$3.30
`$130
`24%
`5,750
`$70
`
`+9%
`
`-27%
`
`+18%
`
`+8%
`
`+18%
`
`22,827
`+3%
`17,121
`3%
`11,414
`+3%
`50%
`11,471
`43%
`4,963
`42%
`2,099
`18%
`22,395
`+7%
`
`38%
`8,488
`$3.30
`$1,000
`3%
`712
`$3.60
`$90
`5%
`1,073
`$2.40
`$85
`4%
`909
`$3.30
`$105
`4%
`866
`
`$3.30
`$100
`5%
`1,126
`$3.30
`$130
`5%
`1,030
`$3.30
`$120
`25%
`5,600
`$70
`
`U.S. Population/Prescriptions (000's)
`Overactive Bladder Sufferers
` % Growth
`Stress/Stress Predominant UI Sufferers
` % Growth
`Urge/Urge Predominant UI Sufferers
` % Growth
`% Incontinence Pts Seeking Treatment
` Incontinence Pts Seeking Treatment
`Drug Therapy Market Share
`Incontinence Pts Placed On Drug Tx
`Drug Therapy Retention Factor
`Incontinence Pts Compliant With Tx
`% Incontinence Pts Compliant With Tx
`Total # of Rx's
` % Growth
`
`Detrol LA (PFE) Market Share
` Prescriptions (000's)
` Price Therapy/Day
`Detrol LA Sales ($MM)
`Ditropan XL (JNJ/AZA) Market Share
` Prescriptions (000's)
` Price Therapy/Day
`Ditropan XL Sales ($MM)
`Oxytrol (WPI) Market Share
` Prescriptions (000's)
` Price Therapy/Day
`Oxytrol Sales ($MM)
`Enablex (NVS) Market Share
` Prescriptions (000's)
` Price Therapy/Day
`Enablex Sales ($MM)
`Sanctura (Esprit) Market Share
` Prescriptions (000's)
` Price Therapy/Day
`Sanctura Sales ($MM)
`Vesicare (Astellas/GSK) Market Share
` Prescriptions (000's)
` Price Therapy/Day
`Vesicare Sales ($MM)
`Detrol (PFE) Market Share
` Prescriptions (000's)
` Price Therapy/Day
`Detrol Sales ($MM)
`Generic Oxybutynin Market Share
` Prescriptions (000's)
`Oxybutynin Generics Sales ($MM)
`
`20,262
`+3%
`15,197
`3%
`10,131
`+3%
`46%
`9,367
`40%
`3,712
`37%
`1,387
`14%
`14,722
`+9%
`
`40%
`5,873
`$3.30
`$690
`21%
`3,150
`$3.60
`$400
`4%
`533
`$2.25
`$39
`
`1%
`
`76
`$3.30
`$8
`
`5%
`734
`$3.30
`$90
`17%
`2,500
`$30
`
`$28
`Other Therapies Sales ($MM)
`$1,285
`U.S. Incontinence Drug Sales ($MM)
`+14%
` % Growth
`Source: SG Cowen estimates, IMS Monthly Prescriptions.
`* Patient population and scrips in 000's; sales in $MM.
`
`20,890
`+3%
`15,668
`3%
`10,445
`+3%
`47%
`9,766
`41%
`4,044
`41%
`1,662
`16%
`17,575
`+19%
`
`38%
`6,706
`$3.30
`$790
`20%
`3,538
`$3.60
`$450
`4%
`671
`$2.35
`$52
`2%
`346
`$3.30
`$40
`2%
`312
`
`$3.30
`$35
`4%
`624
`$3.30
`$70
`5%
`858
`$3.30
`$100
`14%
`2,500
`$30
`
`$30
`$1,600
`+25%
`
`21,517
`+3%
`16,138
`3%
`10,759
`+3%
`49%
`10,584
`41%
`4,359
`42%
`1,826
`17%
`19,523
`+11%
`
`37%
`7,300
`$3.30
`$860
`4%
`878
`$3.60
`$110
`4%
`821
`$2.40
`$65
`3%
`563
`$3.30
`$65
`2%
`476
`
`$3.30
`$55
`4%
`779
`$3.30
`$90
`5%
`944
`$3.30
`$110
`28%
`5,500
`$70
`
`$33
`$1,460
`-9%
`
`22,163
`+3%
`16,622
`3%
`11,081
`+3%
`50%
`11,070
`43%
`4,771
`41%
`1,953
`18%
`20,868
`+7%
`
`37%
`7,809
`$3.30
`$920
`4%
`744
`$3.60
`$94
`5%
`1,010
`$2.40
`$80
`4%
`736
`$3.30
`$85
`3%
`649
`
`$3.30
`$75
`5%
`952
`$3.30
`$110
`5%
`944
`$3.30
`$110
`26%
`5,500
`$70
`
`$44
`$1,590
`+9%
`
`
`
`$44
`$1,740
`+9%
`
`$46
`$1,890
`+9%
`
`+10% - Other generics (flavoxate, imipramine, etc.)
`+8% - Improved treatments, better compliance
`- Clipped in 2006 by Ditropan XL generics
`
`
`
`
`
`664
`
`Petitioner Mylan Pharmaceuticals Inc. - Exhibit 1060 - Page 2
`
`

`
`Therapeutic Categories Outlook
`
`Notes
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`676
`
`Petitioner Mylan Pharmaceuticals Inc. - Exhibit 1060 - Page 3
`
`

`
`Therapeutic Categories Outlook
`
`Notes
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`677
`
`Petitioner Mylan Pharmaceuticals Inc. - Exhibit 1060 - Page 4
`
`

`
`Therapeutic Categories Outlook
`
`Notes
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`678
`
`Petitioner Mylan Pharmaceuticals Inc. - Exhibit 1060 - Page 5
`
`

`
`
`
`SG COWEN & CO. RATING DEFINITIONS PRIOR TO 9/9/2002
`
`Rating
`Strong Buy (1)
`Buy (2)
`Neutral (3)
`Underperform (4)
`
`To view price charts, please see:http://pricecharts.sgcowen.com/pricechart.asp or call 1-888-762-4373.
`
`Definition
`Analyst expects the stock to outperform the market over the next 6-12 months
`Analyst expects the stock to outperform the market over the next 12-18 months
`Analyst expects the stock to perform in line with the market over the next 12 months
`Analyst expects the stock to underperform the market over the next 12 months
`
`680
`
`Petitioner Mylan Pharmaceuticals Inc. - Exhibit 1060 - Page 6