Pharmaceutical Therapeutic Categories Outlook
`
`The $355B worldwide pharmaceutical industry has terrific secular growth prospects, driven mostly
`by new products derived from rich R&D pipelines. New research tools for finding promising targets
`and strategies for reducing development time bolster the long-term outlook. These factors more than
`offset near-term uncertainties in the regulatory review process and debate on the need for
`prescription drug benefits. This comprehensive study forecasts trends in the major therapeutic drug
`categories through 2005. Each category is defined by therapeutic need, market size, growth outlook,
`major new compounds in development, and an assessment of individual company prospects. As
`shown below, the companies predicted to lead in “Market Share,” “Total Therapeutic Positions,” and
`“Leading Therapeutic Positions” are similar to last year. However, a new group of companies is
`poised for “Market Share Gain” through 2005. This analysis reaffirms our top picks in the group:
`Bristol-Myers Squibb, Eli Lilly, Pfizer and Pharmacia. We also like Elan, Forest Labs and King
`Pharmaceuticals in the mid-cap Rx segment.
`
`WHICH COMPANIES WILL LEAD INDUSTRY THROUGH 2005?
`
`Market Share
`GlaxoSmithKline
`Pfizer
`Merck
`Bristol-Myers Squibb
`Aventis
`
`Market Share Gain
`Eli Lilly
`Novartis
`Amgen
`Johnson & Johnson
`American Home Products
`
`Total Therapeutic Positions
`Pfizer (12)
`Pharmacia (11)
`GlaxoSmithKline (9)
`Johnson & Johnson (9)
`Merck (9)
`
`Leading Therapeutic Positions
`GlaxoSmithKline (4)
`American Home Products (3)
`Bristol-Myers Squibb (2)
`Pfizer (2)
`
`Company
`Abbott Laboratories
`American Home Products
`Amgen
`Bristol-Myers Squibb
`Elan
`Eli Lilly
`Forest Labs
`Genentech
`GlaxoSmithKline
`Johnson & Johnson
`King Pharmaceuticals
`Merck
`Pfizer
`Pharmacia
`Schering-Plough
`
`SG COWEN PHARMACEUTICAL UNIVERSE
`
`Symbol
`ABT
`AHP
`AMGN
`BMY
`ELN
`LLY
`FRX
`DNA
`GSK
`JNJ
`KG
`MRK
`PFE
`PHA
`SGP
`
`Stock
`Rating
`1
`2
`2
`1
`2
`1
`1
`2
`2
`2
`1
`2
`1
`1
`2
`
`9/27/01
`Price
`$50
`57
`57
`53
`48
`79
`71
`42
`53
`54
`42
`63
`39
`39
`35
`
`EPS
`
`2002E
`$2.26
`2.60
`1.35
`2.60
`2.30
`2.85
`1.89
`0.95
`2.40
`2.20
`1.35
`3.45
`1.60
`2.06
`1.85
`
`2001E
`$1.89
`2.18
`1.18
`2.39
`1.90
`2.80
`1.60
`0.75
`2.11
`1.93
`1.01
`3.15
`1.30
`1.74
`1.65
`
`P/E
`2001E
`2002E
`26X
`22X
`26
`22
`48
`42
`22
`20
`25
`21
`28
`28
`44
`38
`56
`44
`25
`22
`28
`25
`41
`31
`20
`18
`30
`24
`22
`19
`21
`19
`
`Stephen M. Scala
`(617) 946-3923
`scalas@sgcowen.com
`
`Ian C. Sanderson
`(617) 946-3922
`sandersi@sgcowen.com
`
`Jonathan R. Moran, CFA
`(617) 946-3755
`moranj@sgcowen.com
`
`Kenneth C. Cacciatore
`(617) 946-3968
`cacciatk@sgcowen.com
`
`Jean B. Perreault
`(617) 946-3967
`perreauj@sgcowen.com
`
`Petitioner Mylan Pharmaceuticals Inc. - Exhibit 1056 - Page 1
`
`

`
`− The majority of pharmaceutical sales for the treatment of urinary incontinence are in the United States.
`International sales are anticipated to accelerate over the next few years as physician awareness increases.
`
`ESTIMATED U.S. MARKET FOR URINARY INCONTINENCE (UI) DRUGS*
`2000
`2001E
`2002E
`2003E
`2004E
`2005E
`CGR
`Comment
`U.S. Patient Population/Prescriptions (000’s)
`Overactive Bladder Sufferers
`17,955
` % Growth
`+3%
` % With Urge UI Symptoms
`30%
`Urge UI Sufferers
`5,385
`% UUI Patients Seeking Treatment
`36%
`UUI Patients Seeking Treatment
`1,960
`Drug Therapy Market Share
`38%
`UUI Patients Seeking Drug Tx
`745
`% UUI Patients On Drug Therapy
`14%
`Number of Scrips Filled/Year
`8,940
` % Growth
`+28%
`
`18,475
`+3%
`30%
`5,545
`40%
`2,220
`42%
`920
`17%
`11,040
`+23%
`
`19,050
`+3%
`30%
`5,715
`44%
`2,490
`45%
`1,110
`19%
`13,431
`+22%
`
`19,640
`+3%
`30%
`5,890
`47%
`2,780
`53%
`1,485
`25%
`17,820
`+33%
`
`20,230
`+3%
`30%
`6,070
`48%
`2,915
`63%
`1,835
`30%
`22,020
`+24%
`
`20,835
`+3%
`30%
`6,250
`49%
`3,045
`73%
`2,225
`36%
`26,700
`+21%
`
`+3% - 17MM+ Americans with overactive bladder,
` 13MM+ Americans w/ UI (1MM overflow UI,
` 4MM stress UI, 3MM urge UI, 5MM mixed UI)
`+3% - Includes portion of patients with mixed UI
`- Assumes 36-38% of patients now seek treatment
`
`+9%
`
`+24%
`
`- NAFC survey (100K members) showed 50%+
`
`+24% - Assumes all patients compliant
`- Aggressive marketing improving diagnosis
`
`Detrol LA (PHA) Market Share
` Prescriptions (000’s)
` % Growth
` Price Therapy/Day
` Price/Prescription
`Detrol LA Sales ($MM)
`
`Darifenacin (PFE) Market Share
` Prescriptions (000’s)
` % Growth
` Price Therapy/Day
` Price/Prescription
`Darifenacin Sales ($MM)
`Ditropan XL (JNJ/AZA) Market Share
` Prescriptions (000’s)
` % Growth
` Price Therapy/Day
` Price/Prescription
`Ditropan XL Sales ($MM)
`Detrol (PHA) Market Share
` Prescriptions (000’s)
` % Growth
` Price Therapy/Day
` Price/Prescription
`Detrol Sales ($MM)
`Oxytrol Patch (WPI) Market Share
` Prescriptions (000’s)
` % Growth
` Price/Prescription
`Oxybutynin TD Patch Sales ($MM)
`Duloxetine (LLY) Market Share
` Prescriptions (000’s)
` % Growth
` Price Therapy/Day
` Price/Prescription
`Duloxetine Sales ($MM)
`
`Oxybutynin Market Share
` Prescriptions (000’s)
` % Growth
` Price/Prescription
`Oxybutynin Generics Sales ($MM)
`
`15%
`1,665
`
`$2.80
`$84.00
`$140
`
`34%
`4,525
`+172%
`$2.80
`$84.00
`$380
`
`24%
`2,148
`+124%
`$2.75
`$82.50
`$179
`48%
`4,287
`+22%
`$2.50
`$75.00
`$324
`
`27%
`2,970
`+38%
`$2.75
`$82.50
`$245
`39%
`4,285
`-0%
`$2.80
`$84.00
`$360
`
`29%
`3,940
`+33%
`$2.75
`$82.50
`$325
`21%
`2,855
`-33%
`$2.80
`$84.00
`$240
`
`2%
`315
`
`$80.00
`$25
`
`26%
`2,341
`-5%
`$17.50
`$41
`
`18%
`2,000
`-15%
`$17.50
`$35
`
`13%
`1,700
`-15%
`$17.50
`$30
`
`39%
`6,905
`+53%
`$2.80
`$84.00
`$580
`
`13%
`
`
`2,381
`
`$2.80
`$84.00
`$200
`25%
`4,425
`+12%
`$2.75
`$82.50
`$365
`11%
`1,905
`-33%
`$2.80
`$84.00
`$160
`
`5%
`875
`+178%
`$80.00
`$70
`1%
`180
`
`$2.75
`$82.50
`$15
`
`6%
`1,150
`-32%
`$17.50
`$20
`
`40%
`8,810
`+28%
`$2.80
`$84.00
`$740
`
`21%
`
`4,524
`+90%
`$2.80
`$84.00
`$380
`23%
`5,030
`+14%
`$2.75
`$82.50
`$415
`6%
`1,430
`-25%
`$2.80
`$84.00
`$120
`
`5%
`1,065
`+22%
`$80.00
`$85
`2%
`365
`+103%
`$2.75
`$82.50
`$30
`
`4%
`850
`-26%
`$17.50
`$15
`
`40%
`10,715
`+22%
`$2.80
`$84.00
`$900
`
`6,548
`
`25%
`
`+45%
`$2.80
`$84.00
`$550
`21%
`5,635
`+12%
`$2.75
`$82.50
`$465
`4%
`950
`-34%
`$2.80
`$84.00
`$80
`
`5%
`1,250
`+17%
`$80.00
`$100
`2%
`605
`+66%
`$2.75
`$82.50
`$50
`
`3%
`850
`+0%
`$17.50
`$10
`
`Other Therapies Sales ($MM)
`
`$10
`
`$15
`
`$20
`
`$25
`
`$30
`
`$35
`
`Total Incontinence Drug Sales ($MM)
` % Growth
`Source: SG Cowen estimates, IMS America.
`* Patient population and scrips in 000’s; sales in $MM.
`
`
`$560
`+37%
`
`$800
`+43%
`
`$1,025
`+28%
`
`$1,440
`+40%
`
`$1,815
`+26%
`
`$2,195
`+21%
`
`- Once-daily LA launched 1/01
`- Improved side-effect profile compared to Detrol
`- 2,100+ U.S. reps detail
`
`- Priced at par with standard Detrol
`
`- In Phase III; NDA ’02E; assumes early ’03 launch
`
`- Assumes priced at par with Detrol/LA
`
`- Pfizer’s Darifenacin and Watson’s Oxytrol clip
`- Launched 2/99 for overactive blatter
`- JNJ/ALZA, UCB Pharma and Bayer co-promotion
`
`NA
`
`NA
`
`- 1,200+ U.S. reps detail
`
`+21%
`
`- Conversion to once-daily beginning in 2001
`
`-24% - Likely will remain dominant franchise with LA
`
`- Oxybutynin patch; improved side-effect profile
`- Marketed by Women’s Health and GP Division
` combined 400E U.S. reps to detail
`
`NA
`
`- Eli Lilly
`- Stress urinary incontinence; limited efficacy
`
`NM - Assumes NDA filed in 2002
`
`- Share decline with launch of new therapies
`
`-25%
`
`NA
`
`- Various others
`
`+31% - Improved treatments, better compliance
` (Market sales include generics)
`
`301
`
`Therapeutic Categories Outlook 10/2001
`
`Petitioner Mylan Pharmaceuticals Inc. - Exhibit 1056 - Page 2
`
`

`
`Notes
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`
`SG Cowen Securities Corporation makes a market in AMGN.
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`
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`
`Further information on any of the above securities may be obtained from our offices. This report is published
`solely for information purposes, and is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any
`security in any state where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal. The information herein is based on sources
`we believe to be reliable but is not guaranteed by us and does not purport to be a complete statement or summary of
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`change without notice. Portions of this report may have been previously disseminated by our affiliated companies
`in the Société Générale Group. SG Cowen Securities Corporation, or one or more of its employees, including the
`writer of this report, may have a position in any of the securities discussed herein. The contents and appearance of
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`
`Petitioner Mylan Pharmaceuticals Inc. - Exhibit 1056 - Page 3