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`Blockbuster Drug Launches 2016: The 7 to Watch - Fortune
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`HEALTH PHARMACEUTICALS
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`7 New Blockbuster Drugs to
`Watch in 2016
`
`by(cid:98) Laura Lorenzetti
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` MARCH 25, 2016, 8:06 AM EDT
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`Seven big-money drugs are expected to launch this year.
`Photograph by GP Kidd--Getty Images/Cultura RF
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`Blockbuster Drug Launches 2016: The 7 to Watch - Fortune
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`HEALTH PHARMACEUTICALS
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`7 New Blockbuster Drugs to
`Watch in 2016
`
`by(cid:98) Laura Lorenzetti
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` @lauralorenzetti
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` MARCH 25, 2016, 8:06 AM EDT
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`Seven big-money drugs are expected to launch this year.
`Photograph by GP Kidd--Getty Images/Cultura RF
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`E h f th
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`http://fortune.com/2016/03/25/new-blockbuster-drugs-to-watch/
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`Blockbuster Drug Launches 2016: The 7 to Watch - Fortune
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`Each of these new drugs could rake in $2 billion in sales.
`
`Blockbuster drugs, those medicines that bring in more than $1 billion in sales every year, are the
`holy grail of drug development. They can make a pharmaceutical company and send them to rock-
`star status among investors, as evidenced by the rise of Gilead Sciences after the launch of its
`hepatitis C treatments. This year’s slate of new drug launches features at least seven drugs expected
`to hit blockbuster status within the next five years, according to a study by Thomson Reuters.
`
`The line-up also reveals key trends within the pharmaceutical industry for this year and beyond,
`including an increasing focus on rare diseases, the development of more convenient single-dose
`regimens, and more affordable treatments.
`
`Here are the seven drugs set to launch this year and reach blockbuster status by 2020.
`
`1. Intercept Pharmaceuticals and Sumitomo Dainippon Pharma
`
`Drug: Obeticholic acid
`
`Indication: Chronic liver diseases, primarily primary biliary cirrhosis
`
`2020 Forecast Sales: $2.62 billion
`
` 2.94% ) obeticholic acid has proved very effective in treating
`Intercept Pharmaceuticals’ ( ICPT
`non-alcoholic steatohepatitis, a type of liver inflammation caused by fat build-up in the organ. This
`condition has no approved treatment and a potentially large market, which is expected to push the
`drug to blockbuster status, if approved. About 2% to 3% of the global population has non-alcholoic
`steatohepatitis and the share will likely increase due to rising rates of pre-disposing factors like
`obesity and insulin resistance.
`
`2. Gilead Sciences and Japan Tobacco
`
`Drug: Emtricitabine and tenofovir alafenamide (F/TAF)
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`Indication: HIV-1 infection
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`2020 Forecast Sales: $2 billion
`
` 1.19% ) two HIV-1 infection drugs in development are both expected to be big
`Gilead’s ( GILD
`money-makers, and the company is hoping the new daily single-dosage options will be able to
`replace sales of its existing HIV treatments that are set to lose patent protections in 2017. The new
`TAF-based therapies show evidence that they are potentially a safer replacement for some current
`therapies, including Gilead’s own Truvada.
`
`3. Gilead Sciences and Janssen R&D
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`Drug: Tenofovir alafenamide and emtricitabine and rilpivirine (R/F/TAF)
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`Indication: HIV-1 infection
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`2020 Forecast Sales: $1.57 billion
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`Like the No. 2 drug on this list, Gilead’s secondary TAF-based combination therapy in partnership
`with Johnson & Johnson’s ( JNJ
` 0.87% ) Janssen unit is expected to improve renal and bone
`mineral density measurements compared with some existing drugs. Those results combined with
`the improved longevity of HIV patients and increasing numbers of those eligible for antiretroviral
`drugs means a large and lucrative market for the two new TAF-based drugs.
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`4. Merck & Co.
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`Drug: MK-5172A
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`Indication: Hepatitis C virus
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`2020 Forecast Sales: $1.54 billion
`
` 0.93% ) is getting ready to enter the heated market for hepatitis C treatments, going
`Merck ( MRK
`up against Gilead’s Harvoni and Abbvie’s Viekira Pak. Following a significant setback when
`theFood and Drug Administration withdrew its “breakthrough drug” status, Merck’s treatment
`could finally launch this year to give another safe and high-quality treatment for the disease. A
`recent warning by the FDA concerning Viekira Pak has dampened sales of Abbvie’s drug, which
`could give Merck a leg up when it eventually brings its hepatitis C drug to market. It could also
`pursue an aggressive pricing strategy to gain market share, given the currently high price tags on
`current treatments.
`
`5. Abbvie
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`Drug: Venetoclax
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`Indication: Chronic lymphocytic leukemia
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`2020 Forecast Sales: $1.48 billion
`
`Abbvie’s ( ABBV
` 1.90% ) Venetoclax is a potential oral treatment for cancer, primarily focused on
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`y
`, p
`p
`)
`(
`a type of chronic lymphocytic leukemia that is resistant to chemotherapy. The drug was a leading
`therapy at last year’s annual meeting of the American Society of Hematology after a clinical trial
`showed an overall response rate of 79.4% in patients with relapsed chronic lymphocytic leukemia.
`The drug is also being tested as a potential treatment for other hematological cancers like non-
`Hodgkin’s lymphoma, as well as in combination with tamoxifen in patients with metastatic breast
`cancer.
`
`6. ACADIA Pharmaceuticals
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`Drug: Nuplazid
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`Indication: Parkinson’s disease psychosis
`
`2020 Forecast Sales: $1.41 billion
`
` 5.79% ) nuplazid could be the first and only drug on the market to help treat
`ACADIA’s ( ACAD
`Parkinson’s disease psychosis, which affects up to 40% of Parkinson’s patients. Clinical trials have
`shown that the drug does not worsen motor symptoms, a vital factor for these patients, while
`improving night-time sleep, daytime wakefulness, and caregiver burden. Nuplazid may also work
`in other psychosis settings, such as schizophrenia and Alzheimer’s disease psychosis. The
`combination of those three diseases means ACADIA’s drug has a potentially massive and therefore
`lucrative market.
`
`7. Nippon Shinyaku and Actelion
`
`Drug: Uptravi
`
`Indication: Pulmonary arterial hypertension
`
`2020 Forecast Sales: $1.27 billion
`
`Nippon Shinyaky’s Uptravi is able to both delay the progression of pulmonary arterial
`hypertension, a type of high blood pressure that affects arteries in the lungs and heart, as well as
`reduce the risk of hospitalization The drug is the only one on this list that’s already available It
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`reduce the risk of hospitalization. The drug is the only one on this list that s already available. It
`entered the market in the first week of January 2016 and is expected to bring in $189 million in its
`first year, with sales increasing to $1.27 billion by 2020. Uptravi is being promoted as an additional
`therapy once baseline treatment has been started. A massive clinical trial showed that Uptravi
`reduced the risk of death from pulmonary arterial hypertension by 39% versus placebo.
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`TECH INTERNET OF THINGS
`
`The Makers of Siri Just
`Previewed 'Viv' and It’s
`Scary Smart
`
`by(cid:98) Barb Darrow
`
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` @gigabarb
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` MAY 9, 2016, 3:59 PM EDT
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`Viv CEO and co-founder Dag Kittlaus.
`Noam Galai Getty Images for TechCrunch
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`Viv appears to be the smarter spawn of Siri.
`
`Viv, the widely anticipated artificial intelligence technology from the creators of Siri, made its
`public debut in New York on Monday, and it didn’t disappoint.
`
`Dag Kittlaus, co-founder and chief executive of Viv, took the stage at the TechCrunch Disrupt
`conference to put Viv through its paces as a personal digital assistant in a live demo. Kittlaus and
`co-founder Adam Cheyer, both veterans of SRI, were profiled in Wired.
`
`In brief, Viv was able to tell Kittlaus about the weather conditions at home, a relatively easy query
`because Viv was already trained to know where “home” is before calling out to Weather
`Underground to get the local conditions.
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`But from there things got harder
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`But from there, things got harder.
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`Blockbuster Drug Launches 2016: The 7 to Watch - Fortune
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`Another question: “Will it be warmer than 70 degrees near the Golden Gate Bridge after 5 p.m.
`tomorrow?” introduced several layers of complexity that Viv was able to navigate. Kittlaus
` -1.04% ) Communications technology converted the sounds
`explained how using Nuance ( NUAN
`he made into on-screen words, enabling Viv to apply natural language understanding to figure out
`his intent.
`
`The team behind Siri debuts its next-gen AI “Viv” at Disrupt NY 2016
`
`Then Viv’s secret sauce, a program generator, kicks in. This technology takes the question and the
`user’s intent, quickly drafting software code that calls the services needed (Weather Underground,
`a calendar, time zone converter, travel site, whatever) to generate the layout of the screen and the
`dialog.
`
`Read More: Why Apple’s Siri and Microsoft’s Cortana Still Aren’t Cutting It
`
`“In ten milliseconds, Viv wrote a 44-step program regarding that Golden Gate Bridge query
`connecting all the services needed,” he said. This, he described, is basically self-written code.
`
`Another example: “Send Adam 20 bucks for the drinks last night ” Based on Viv’s knowledge of the
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`Another example: Send Adam 20 bucks for the drinks last night. Based on Viv s knowledge of the
`user—meaning the system knows who Adam is and how to reach him—it called up the Venmo
`payment service and completed the transaction.
`
` 0.11% ) products, which as popular as they
`Unlike Siri, Viv will not be restricted to Apple ( AAPL
`might be, represent a small subset of the device universe. Kittlaus has much bigger ambitions for
`Viv to be what he called “the intelligent interface to anything.” In the era of Internet of things,
`which will harness an estimated 20 billion connected devices by 2020, that’s a humongous
`addressable market.
`
`Get Data Sheet, Fortune’s daily technology newsletter.
`
` -0.19% ) and Google
`Right now, Viv is on its own, but it may not stay that way. Facebook ( FB
`( GOOG
` 0.25% ) have reportedly made offers to buy the company. In this competitive world of
`artificial intelligence, all the major tech players including Apple and Microsoft ( MSFT
` -0.64% )
`are looking for hot technologies.
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