Cramming More Components onto
`Integrated Circuits
`
`GORDON E. MOORE, LIFE FELLOW, IEEE
`
`With unit cost falling as the number of components per circuit
`rises, by 1975 economics may dictate squeezing as many as 65 000
`components on a single silicon chip.
`The future of integrated electronics is the future of
`electronics itself. The advantages of integration will bring
`about a proliferation of electronics, pushing this science
`into many new areas.
`Integrated circuits will lead to such wonders as home
`computers—or at least terminals connected to a central
`computer—automatic controls for automobiles, and per-
`sonal portable communications equipment. The electronic
`wristwatch needs only a display to be feasible today.
`But the biggest potential lies in the production of large
`systems. In telephone communications, integrated circuits
`in digital filters will separate channels on multiplex equip-
`ment. Integrated circuits will also switch telephone circuits
`and perform data processing.
`Computers will be more powerful, and will be organized
`in completely different ways. For example, memories built
`of integrated electronics may be distributed throughout
`the machine instead of being concentrated in a central
`unit. In addition, the improved reliability made possible
`by integrated circuits will allow the construction of larger
`processing units. Machines similar to those in existence
`today will be built at lower costs and with faster turn-
`around.
`
`I. PRESENT AND FUTURE
`By integrated electronics, I mean all the various tech-
`nologies which are referred to as microelectronics today
`as well as any additional ones that result in electronics
`functions supplied to the user as irreducible units. These
`technologies were first investigated in the late 1950’s. The
`object was to miniaturize electronics equipment to include
`increasingly complex electronic functions in limited space
`with minimum weight. Several approaches evolved, includ-
`ing microassembly techniques for individual components,
`thin-film structures, and semiconductor integrated circuits.
`
`Reprinted from Gordon E. Moore, “Cramming More Components onto
`Integrated Circuits,” Electronics, pp. 114–117, April 19, 1965.
`Publisher Item Identifier S 0018-9219(98)00753-1.
`
`Each approach evolved rapidly and converged so that
`each borrowed techniques from another. Many researchers
`believe the way of the future to be a combination of the
`various approaches.
`The advocates of semiconductor integrated circuitry are
`already using the improved characteristics of thin-film
`resistors by applying such films directly to an active semi-
`conductor substrate. Those advocating a technology based
`upon films are developing sophisticated techniques for the
`attachment of active semiconductor devices to the passive
`film arrays.
`Both approaches have worked well and are being used
`in equipment today.
`
`II. THE ESTABLISHMENT
`Integrated electronics is established today. Its techniques
`are almost mandatory for new military systems, since the
`reliability, size, and weight required by some of them is
`achievable only with integration. Such programs as Apollo,
`for manned moon flight, have demonstrated the reliability
`of integrated electronics by showing that complete circuit
`functions are as free from failure as the best individual
`transistors.
`Most companies in the commercial computer field have
`machines in design or in early production employing inte-
`grated electronics. These machines cost less and perform
`better than those which use “conventional” electronics.
`Instruments of various sorts, especially the rapidly in-
`creasing numbers employing digital techniques, are starting
`to use integration because it cuts costs of both manufacture
`and design.
`The use of linear integrated circuitry is still restricted
`primarily to the military. Such integrated functions are ex-
`pensive and not available in the variety required to satisfy a
`major fraction of linear electronics. But the first applications
`are beginning to appear in commercial electronics, partic-
`ularly in equipment which needs low-frequency amplifiers
`of small size.
`
`III. RELIABILITY COUNTS
`In almost every case, integrated electronics has demon-
`strated high reliability. Even at the present level of pro-
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`duction—low compared to that of discrete components—it
`offers reduced systems cost, and in many systems improved
`performance has been realized.
`Integrated electronics will make electronic techniques
`more generally available throughout all of society, perform-
`ing many functions that presently are done inadequately by
`other techniques or not done at all. The principal advantages
`will be lower costs and greatly simplified design—payoffs
`from a ready supply of low-cost functional packages.
`For most applications, semiconductor integrated circuits
`will predominate. Semiconductor devices are the only rea-
`sonable candidates presently in existence for the active
`elements of integrated circuits. Passive semiconductor el-
`ements look attractive too, because of their potential for
`low cost and high reliability, but they can be used only if
`precision is not a prime requisite.
`Silicon is likely to remain the basic material, although
`others will be of use in specific applications. For example,
`gallium arsenide will be important in integrated microwave
`functions. But silicon will predominate at lower frequencies
`because of the technology which has already evolved
`around it and its oxide, and because it is an abundant and
`relatively inexpensive starting material.
`
`IV. COSTS AND CURVES
`Reduced cost is one of the big attractions of integrated
`electronics, and the cost advantage continues to increase
`as the technology evolves toward the production of larger
`and larger circuit functions on a single semiconductor
`substrate. For simple circuits, the cost per component is
`nearly inversely proportional to the number of components,
`the result of the equivalent piece of semiconductor in
`the equivalent package containing more components. But
`as components are added, decreased yields more than
`compensate for the increased complexity, tending to raise
`the cost per component. Thus there is a minimum cost
`at any given time in the evolution of the technology. At
`present, it is reached when 50 components are used per
`circuit. But the minimum is rising rapidly while the entire
`cost curve is falling (see graph). If we look ahead five
`years, a plot of costs suggests that the minimum cost per
`component might be expected in circuits with about 1000
`components per circuit (providing such circuit functions
`can be produced in moderate quantities). In 1970,
`the
`manufacturing cost per component can be expected to be
`only a tenth of the present cost.
`The complexity for minimum component costs has in-
`creased at a rate of roughly a factor of two per year
`(see graph). Certainly over the short term this rate can be
`expected to continue, if not to increase. Over the longer
`term, the rate of increase is a bit more uncertain, although
`there is no reason to believe it will not remain nearly
`constant for at least ten years. That means by 1975, the
`number of components per integrated circuit for minimum
`cost will be 65 000.
`I believe that such a large circuit can be built on a single
`wafer.
`
`Fig. 1.
`
`V. TWO-MIL SQUARES
`
`With the dimensional tolerances already being employed
`in integrated circuits, isolated high-performance transistors
`can be built on centers two-thousandths of an inch apart.
`Such a two-mil square can also contain several kilohms
`of resistance or a few diodes. This allows at least 500
`components per linear inch or a quarter million per square
`inch. Thus, 65 000 components need occupy only about
`one-fourth a square inch.
`On the silicon wafer currently used, usually an inch or
`more in diameter, there is ample room for such a structure if
`the components can be closely packed with no space wasted
`for interconnection patterns. This is realistic, since efforts to
`achieve a level of complexity above the presently available
`integrated circuits are already under way using multilayer
`metallization patterns separated by dielectric films. Such a
`density of components can be achieved by present optical
`techniques and does not require the more exotic techniques,
`such as electron beam operations, which are being studied
`to make even smaller structures.
`
`VI.
`
`INCREASING THE YIELD
`
`There is no fundamental obstacle to achieving device
`yields of 100%. At present, packaging costs so far exceed
`the cost of the semiconductor structure itself that there is no
`incentive to improve yields, but they can be raised as high
`as is economically justified. No barrier exists comparable
`to the thermodynamic equilibrium considerations that often
`limit yields in chemical reactions; it is not even necessary
`to do any fundamental research or to replace present
`processes. Only the engineering effort is needed.
`In the early days of integrated circuitry, when yields were
`extremely low, there was such incentive. Today ordinary
`integrated circuits are made with yields comparable with
`those obtained for individual semiconductor devices. The
`same pattern will make larger arrays economical, if other
`considerations make such arrays desirable.
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`MOORE: CRAMMING COMPONENTS ONTO INTEGRATED CIRCUITS
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`Fig. 2.
`
`Fig. 3.
`
`VII. HEAT PROBLEM
`Will it be possible to remove the heat generated by tens
`of thousands of components in a single silicon chip?
`If we could shrink the volume of a standard high-
`speed digital computer to that required for the components
`themselves, we would expect
`it
`to glow brightly with
`present power dissipation. But it won’t happen with in-
`tegrated circuits. Since integrated electronic structures are
`two dimensional, they have a surface available for cooling
`close to each center of heat generation. In addition, power is
`needed primarily to drive the various lines and capacitances
`associated with the system. As long as a function is confined
`to a small area on a wafer, the amount of capacitance
`which must be driven is distinctly limited. In fact, shrinking
`dimensions on an integrated structure makes it possible to
`operate the structure at higher speed for the same power
`per unit area.
`
`VIII. DAY OF RECKONING
`Clearly, we will be able to build such component-
`crammed equipment. Next, we ask under what circum-
`stances we should do it. The total cost of making a
`particular system function must be minimized. To do so,
`we could amortize the engineering over several identical
`items, or evolve flexible techniques for the engineering of
`large functions so that no disproportionate expense need
`be borne by a particular array. Perhaps newly devised
`design automation procedures could translate from logic
`
`diagram to technological realization without any special
`engineering.
`to build large
`It may prove to be more economical
`systems out of smaller functions, which are separately pack-
`aged and interconnected. The availability of large functions,
`combined with functional design and construction, should
`allow the manufacturer of large systems to design and
`construct a considerable variety of equipment both rapidly
`and economically.
`
`IX. LINEAR CIRCUITRY
`Integration will not change linear systems as radically as
`digital systems. Still, a considerable degree of integration
`will be achieved with linear circuits. The lack of large-
`value capacitors and inductors is the greatest fundamental
`limitation to integrated electronics in the linear area.
`By their very nature, such elements require the storage
`of energy in a volume. For high
`it is necessary that the
`volume be large. The incompatibility of large volume and
`integrated electronics is obvious from the terms themselves.
`Certain resonance phenomena, such as those in piezoelec-
`tric crystals, can be expected to have some applications for
`tuning functions, but inductors and capacitors will be with
`us for some time.
`The integrated RF amplifier of the future might well con-
`sist of integrated stages of gain, giving high performance
`at minimum cost, interspersed with relatively large tuning
`elements.
`Other linear functions will be changed considerably. The
`matching and tracking of similar components in integrated
`structures will allow the design of differential amplifiers of
`greatly improved performance. The use of thermal feedback
`effects to stabilize integrated structures to a small fraction
`of a degree will allow the construction of oscillators with
`crystal stability.
`Even in the microwave area, structures included in the
`definition of integrated electronics will become increasingly
`important. The ability to make and assemble components
`small compared with the wavelengths involved will allow
`the use of lumped parameter design, at least at the lower
`frequencies. It is difficult to predict at the present time
`just how extensive the invasion of the microwave area by
`integrated electronics will be. The successful realization of
`such items as phased-array antennas, for example, using a
`multiplicity of integrated microwave power sources, could
`completely revolutionize radar.
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`G. E. Moore is one of the new breed of elec-
`tronic engineers, schooled in the physical sci-
`ences rather than in electronics. He earned a B.S.
`degree in chemistry from the University of Cal-
`ifornia and a Ph.D. degree in physical chemistry
`from the California Institute of Technology. He
`was one of the founders of Fairchild Semicon-
`ductor and has been Director of the research and
`development laboratories since 1959.
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