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`ServiceNow: Redefining Enterprise IT Service Management - Wikibon
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`ServiceNow: Redefining Enterprise IT Service Management
`Last Update: Jan 11, 2014 | 05:24
`Viewed 15424 times | Community Rating: 5
`Originating Author: David Vellante
`
`1 Introduction
`2 How Did ServiceNow Become So Successful?
`3 Does ServiceNow’s TAM Justify its Valuation?
`4 Deeper Discussion on the ServiceNow TAM
`5 Competitive Outlook
`5.1 What About Mobile?
`5.2 Is ServiceNow’s Architecture Truly Modern or Just Good Marketing?
`6 What to Watch Going Forward
`
`Introduction
`
`ServiceNow (NYSE NOW) is one of the hottest companies in the software business with a current market
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`ServiceNow: Redefining Enterprise IT Service Management - Wikibon
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`value above $8B (Jan 2014). The firm has succeeded by modernizing the IT service management (ITSM)
`market through an innovative platform that is cloud-based and highly flexible. Initially conceived as an
`application development platform by founder Fred Luddy, the company targeted help desk and ITSM as a
`proving ground for its system, because as a former CTO of Peregrine Systems, he was familiar with that
`space.
`
`The rest is history.
`
`ServiceNow’s annual revenue is expected to be above $400M when the firm reports its full year 2013 results
`at the end of January 2014, a 60% growth rate over 2012. ServiceNow burned the shorts in 2013, adding
`about $3B to its market value and maintaining a roughly 20X revenue multiple over its current market cap;
`leaving naysayers scrambling to cover their positions. ServiceNow has "poked the bear" of ITSM,
`specifically awakening established competitors. However, ServiceNow has the market momentum, vision,
`customer traction and technology architecture to maintain and even extend its lead through innovation and a
`maturing global ecosystem. Second half 2013 announcements address customer demands for purchasing
`services at a more granular level while at the same time expanding beyond core ITSM markets.
`
`ServiceNow, however is not without challenges. A key issue facing the company is to not only growing its
`customer base but also embedding itself more deeply into existing accounts and extending beyond IT to
`validate its high valuation. A spate of announcements in 2013 was designed to accomplish this goal.
`Throughout last year, ServiceNow made moves to simplify its offering and deliver new services that facilitate
`the easier creation of applications. More recently, in the last two months of 2013, ServiceNow made several
`announcements that fortified its vision of “ERP for IT,” further automated configuration management,
`improved mobile support and importantly, extended ServiceNow beyond IT into HR service automation.
`
`With a modern platform, a focused offering and excellent sales execution, ServiceNow has injected life into
`the once-stagnant, slow growth ITSM market not only by bringing a SaaS business model to the table, but
`also re-defining how service management is done within enterprises. Wikibon has spoken to dozens of
`ServiceNow customers and consistently found that ServiceNow’s approach of delivering one code base, one
`user experience (UX), one data model and a “born in the cloud” mindset has been transformational for IT
`organizations.
`
`The big question is how far can ServiceNow ride this wave?
`
`How Did ServiceNow Become So Successful?
`
`ServiceNow’s ascendency came well after it launched a SaaS-based ITSM product in 2004. At the time,
`ITSM products on the market were viewed as complicated, fragmented with high customer churn rates.
`Indeed many of the products on the market were viewed much in the same way that IT was perceived
`—non-responsive, stove-piped, misaligned (with business needs) and not value producing.
`
`Two events occurred in the middle of the 2000’s, which created major tailwinds for ServiceNow. At the
`macro level, Amazon launched AWS, which kicked off a cloud craze and heightened awareness that perhaps
`the Salesforce.com model was right for a new breed of apps. As well it underscored that IT services in the
`future would be delivered on-demand, and as part of a service-oriented catalogue approach.
`
`The second event was more nuanced. With the introduction of ITIL 2007, the ITIL methodology (which is
`the gold-standard for ITSM) evolved into a more holistic, full life-cycle approach. Of particular importance
`was the ITIL Service Strategy (SS) and the extension of the ITIL Service Catalogue, which dramatically
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`widened the scope of ITSM processes. Practitioners of ITIL were immediately challenged to evolve their
`internal systems, but most offerings on the market were unable to keep pace and became rapidly viewed as
`outdated, rigid help desk tools.
`
`ServiceNow was the exception. The company’s modern architecture, single code base and single data model,
`shared among all applications in the system, made it very easy for ServiceNow’s customers to adapt its
`platform to business requirements and new ITIL processes. As with virtually all products on the market,
`ServiceNow started by managing incidents, problems and changes within IT as part of an overall release
`governance process. But in the middle of the decade, ServiceNow started to knock down blue chip customers
`in the Global 2000 and rapidly became the Salesforce.com of IT. Today, ServiceNow, along with Workday,
`are considered the next big enterprise software plays mimicking the Salesforce SaaS playbook; albeit in
`different markets with different architectural approaches.
`
`Notably, unlike SaaS players such as Salesforce and Workday, which sell into the lines-of-business,
`ServiceNow sells almost exclusively to the IT department. Its strategy is to automate the service processes
`that IT touches and create an alluring platform that other business processes can easily adopt. ServiceNow’s
`mantra is to make IT people “heroes” within their companies. Discussions with dozens of ServiceNow
`customers confirm that this strategy is working.
`
`The big questions observers are asking about ServiceNow today include:
`
`Is the company’s lofty valuation justified?
`How large is ServiceNow’s market?
`Does ServiceNow’s laser focus on Global 2000 customers limit its market size?
`Will competitive responses to ServiceNow’s model limit its growth prospects?
`Is ServiceNow’s architecture truly modern and differentiable?
`Can ServiceNow compete successfully as a so-called PaaS player?
`
`This Professional Alert will address these questions and put forth Wikibon’s view of ServiceNow’s prospects
`going forward.
`
`Does ServiceNow’s TAM Justify its Valuation?
`
`At the end of September 2013, ServiceNow had about 1,900 customers or just under 16% of the 12,000 large
`enterprises that it targets. Various estimates indicate the company has between 10%-12% of the ITSM space,
`which is a slow growth market. ServiceNow, much like Workday, has been rapidly gobbling share to power
`its growth in a market once viewed as stagnant. The company’s “logo slide” is impressive and growing
`rapidly.
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`ServiceNow: Redefining Enterprise IT Service Management - Wikibon
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`Figure 1 – ServiceNow Logo Slide
`Source: ServiceNow Investor Deck Q3 2013
`
`However if ServiceNow’s TAM is narrowly defined as the ITSM market, it would appear the company’s
`valuation is far too high. The ITSM space according to research firms like Gartner is approximately $4B
`annually. Even at 100% share, ServiceNow’s current valuation wouldn’t hold water.
`
`So why are investors so excited about ServiceNow’s prospects, and why is the company’s valuation
`escalating? We see six primary factors driving ServiceNow’s valuation momentum, specifically:
`
`1.
`
`2.
`
`Growth: Investors are starved for growth companies in enterprise tech – especially software firms --
`and suppliers like Salesforce, ServiceNow, Workday, Splunk and Tableau are viewed as highly
`attractive because they are growing rapidly and disrupting existing markets with the marginal
`economics of software business models.
`Cloud: Cloud computing is viewed as disruptive and transformative. Companies that have successfully
`drafted off the momentum of both Salesforce.com and Amazon AWS are commanding a premium from
`investors because their revenue streams are predictable and their business models are alluring.
`
`Platform: ServiceNow has a platform that Wikibon has called “flat,” meaning all application modules3.
`access the same data model. In our opinion, this means its architecture is highly flexible and can be
`easily extended beyond the ITSM space.
`Management: Simply put, the market views founder Fred Luddy as a visionary and CEO Frank
`4.
`Slootman as an execution guru; with a proven track record of creating new markets and outselling
`much larger and better-funded competitors.
`Customer Fanaticism: ServiceNow customers are incredibly supportive of the company. At its
`Knowledge conference in 2013, ServiceNow held its annual financial analysts meeting and Wall Street
`saw, first hand, the degree to which its customers love the company and its products.
`
`Markets Beyond ITSM: IT now touches virtually every part of the business, and to the extent that6.
`ServiceNow’s platform can extend into line-of-business domains, we believe its TAM will expand
`dramatically.
`
`5.
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`Deeper Discussion on the ServiceNow TAM
`
`The total market size in which ServiceNow participates requires further discussion and has always been a
`point of concern for investors. ServiceNow CFO Mike Scarpelli has conservatively pegged the markets
`including and beyond the straight ITSM space at $8B, citing analysts who believe it could be as high as
`$20B. In our view the TAM is much larger – closer to $30B. Whether ServiceNow can attack that entire
`space given its bias toward larger companies remains to be seen, but the overall market, we believe, has more
`potential than many realize.
`
`Moreover, we believe that ServiceNow is gaining traction because it is cutting cost and improving
`productivity within IT operations. We strongly feel that ServiceNow’s market is bigger than traditional
`definitions of ITSM because as it helps customers become more productive, they invest more in the platform
`—driving new incremental productivity and creating a “flywheel” effect (better product→increased
`productivity→lower marginal costs→leads to further platform investments).
`
`To the extent ServiceNow can apply this model beyond traditional ITSM it will, we predict, create
`incremental market opportunities.
`
`Specifically, ServiceNow came out of the blocks positioning itself beyond help desk and now is reaching
`beyond ITSM with a concept it calls “ERP of IT.” This TAM expansion strategy is attractive for investors and
`differentiable from the competition.
`
`What does ERP for IT mean, and is it more than just a marketing tagline? In concept ERP for IT means going
`beyond incident, problem and change management and into a more holistic view of IT operations. So in other
`words, not just supporting those in IT who are managing the incidents but also supporting project
`management, vendor management, software development and deployment, and rolling out and managing
`infrastructure through a full life cycle.
`
`Notably, last year, ServiceNow announced App Creator, a capability to easily build new apps that can, by
`default, share the single data model concept. This, we believe will further expand the company’s TAM as the
`potential of this concept goes beyond IT. The reality is that HR functions, facilities, marketing and other
`business lines have similar dynamics for handling requests. For example, ServiceNow recently announced
`capabilities to automate HR service delivery. Importantly this is complementary to an HR system like
`Workday, which houses all the benefits, pay scale and personnel details. What ServiceNow does is provide a
`means of delivering HR services along with other company services as part of an overall catalogue. It
`provides self-service capabilities across the company that are both measurable and governable.
`
`As a result, we believe that ServiceNow’s TAM is significantly larger than existing markets and extends
`beyond IT – see Figure 2:
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`Figure 2 – ServiceNow’s Expanding TAM
`Source: Wikibon Projections
`
`Questions remain as to how much of that $30B TAM ServiceNow can address. Generally it leaves smaller
`customers for its ecosystem to service or cedes them to competitors specifically focused on SMB. This does
`limit ServiceNow’s addressable market. However ServiceNow’s strategy of going after the Global 2000 is the
`correct one because these are the customers with the most difficult problems. Once ServiceNow cracks the IT
`department it can pursue other divisions within large companies—both IT and line-of-business.
`
`Competitive Outlook
`
`ServiceNow competes almost exclusively in enterprise markets, focused on Global 2000 customers. Its
`biggest competitor is BMC Software, which offers a set of legacy ITSM products and also its Remedy
`OnDemand offering. BMC is a 20-year leader in the ITSM space with deep integration expertise, a strong
`ecosystem and a large installed base that it’s fighting to protect. BMC customers Wikibon has spoken with
`suggest that its products are very functional but complex.
`
`More than 20 companies participate in the ITSM market, including large incumbents like HP, CA and IBM.
`Traditionally products in this market have been dubbed as cumbersome, expensive, inflexible and outdated.
`ServiceNow (and others) changed that perception by delivering SaaS-based solutions that were more flexible
`and offered other benefits associated with on-demand software. Companies like Cherwell Software have
`demonstrated there’s room for smaller pure plays to emerge. In the large-enterprise ITSM SaaS space,
`however, only BMC, ServiceNow and Cherwell are showing meaningful traction – underscoring the
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`difficulty of competing in the enterprise segment.
`
`Generally the large incumbents are moving toward a SaaS model and face similar challenges as other
`established software companies in this transition. Specifically, moving from a large up-front perpetual
`license/ongoing maintenance model to a monthly revenue stream causes angst among stakeholders. BMC
`went private in September 2013 while larger players like HP, CA and IBM can somewhat hide their
`transitions within a much larger software portfolio. Nonethless, the market is being disrupted, and longer
`term putting a SaaS face on a legacy backend is not likely to be a winning strategy.
`
`The SMB market is much more fragmented, and while ServiceNow is not a player in the lower-end market
`spaces there are two varying views on this opportunity. On the one hand, conventional wisdom suggests that
`it’s easier to go up market than come down. On the other hand, ITSM, ITIL and service management
`governance is generally not a top priority of small business owners. However to the extent products in this
`market can be simplified, they may have an impact longer term.
`
`Figure 3 below shows recent market share data on the ITSM market from the ITSMU. As is shown in the
`data, ServiceNow’s focus on the Global 2000, thus far has shown to be the right strategy.
`
`Figure 3 – ITSM Share Data
`Source: ITSMU
`
`What About Mobile?
`
`Mobile is a megatrend in the application space, and the ITSM market is no exception. Making applications
`work in mobile is difficult for many developers, because it requires a different mindset and low level
`programming expertise. The advent of HTML5 has positively changed this dynamic. Coming into 2013,
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`Wikibon had concerns about the pace of mobile development in ITSM generally and ServiceNow
`specifically. Last spring ServiceNow made a rather narrow announcement to support iPad only. But last
`November, the company mobilized its entire application.
`
`We view this as both industry-leading and critical to TAM expansion. Specifically, because ServiceNow’s
`strategy is to enable developers to very easily build applications on its platform with App Creator, every app
`that’s built will automatically be mobile enabled. This is attractive for developers and is a strategy being
`pursued by leading platform ISVs.
`
`Is ServiceNow’s Architecture Truly Modern or Just Good Marketing?
`
`Critics of ServiceNow point to the fact that its architecture is not multi-tenant. Technology purists will argue
`this approach is outdated and adds complexity that will have ripple effects on customer upgrades.
`
`We believe this argument misses the point. Specifically, Wikibon has always stated that from a customer
`standpoint the single vs. multi-tenant argument is irrelevant. In our view, multi-tenancy is nice for the vendor,
`who can "oversubscribe" and share resources (think amazon AWS), but from a buyer's standpoint it doesn't
`matter. In fact many customers understand that from a security perspective (similar to Larry Ellison's
`argument at Oracle OpenWorld 2012), multi-tenancy done at the application level is more risky.
`
`The nuance here is that the ServiceNow architecture is multi-instance, which makes it a hybrid of sorts with
`the cost efficiencies of multi-tenancy and security of single-tenancy. ServiceNow’s architecture separates
`customer data and applications through logical isolation while leveraging virtualization techniques to share
`hardware.
`
`The upgrade issue is also a specious argument because ServiceNow has demonstrated consistently that it has
`an automated process to manage upgrades. A key ingredient of the secret sauce of automating services is
`having an accurate model of what the IT infrastructure actually looks like behind the business services and
`mapping the relationship between those business services and the IT infrastructure components. This is a core
`discipline of ServiceNow.
`
`In classic ServiceNow fashion, it has recently made available portions of its own internal orchestration engine
`to customers in a recent announcement around configuration automation. In a partnership with Puppet Labs,
`ServiceNow uses Puppet’s open source toolset to enable visibility and control into the nitty gritty details of
`the compute, storage and networking infrastructure. Specifically, Puppet allows configuration management
`using a model-based store called a “Puppet Master.” Puppet understands the configuration of record data for
`all the different types of servers in the enterprise (e.g. DB servers, Web servers, Linux, Windows, etc). Puppet
`manages those configurations at a very large scale. ServiceNow connects to Puppet and takes control,
`allowing ServiceNow to become the single authority over the change management process and be directly
`connected to changes in a Puppet controlled environment. This degree of automation is critical to allow
`ServiceNow and its customers to scale.
`
`The bottom line is the advantages of a single, shared data model (i.e. that “flat” architecture we referenced
`earlier) far outweigh the religious debates of single vs. multi-tenancy. The ability to easily add function and
`allow all modules to access the same data have allowed ServiceNow to rocket into a leading position. The
`real challenge for ServiceNow over time will be to manage locking rates on the single data model at scale. As
`ServiceNow and its customers add more apps that share the same data model, classic database queuing theory
`will kick in and create interesting architectural challenges for ServiceNow engineers. However these issues
`are well-understood in computer science circles, and ServiceNow will be able to evolve its architecture for a
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`long period of time.
`
`What to Watch Going Forward
`
`ServiceNow’s execution to date has been stellar. Its growth rates, ability to attract and retain talent, its
`technical approach and customer loyalty have made it a darling on Wall Street and amongst customers.
`Moreover, management has the confidence of investors and has put forth an ambitious plan to re-define
`ITSM and take the disciplines of IT process management further into line-of-business units. In our view this
`is critical and is by no means a certainty. Many uncharted waters remain for ServiceNow, and observers,
`investors and customers should focus on the following seven high-level areas as indicators of continued
`success:
`
`1.
`
`3.
`
`Growth: ServiceNow’s valuation is largely a function of its ability to grow by gaining share in a
`once-stagnant market. Both new customer acquisition and deeper penetration into existing accounts
`with higher net contract values are key performance indicators.
`
`TAM Expansion: A key component of growth must come from expanding (and of course serving) the2.
`TAM into lines of business. ServiceNow’s current market cap cannot be justified solely on the
`traditional ITSM market. Professional services and acquisitions are two areas to watch, but these are
`tricky as partners want to keep some services revenue and acquisitions must generally fit into the single
`data model construct.
`Competition: Competitors' ability to steal ServiceNow’s playbook is a constant threat. Virtually all
`established competitors are moving to a SaaS model with a “we have that too” marketing message. The
`question is: Are they simply putting a SaaS face on legacy software or truly transforming? And even if
`the former, will ServiceNow be able to continue to wrestle customers away from large suppliers at
`rapid pace?
`Scale: ServiceNow engineers are betting that its architecture can compete for decades going forward.
`ServiceNow is not your typical hyperscale Web giant, and it must demonstrate that it can maintain high
`quality service levels at a scale that justifies its TAM.
`A New Kind of PaaS: ServiceNow is not in our view competing directly with PaaS players like
`Salesforce, Amazon, Google or Pivotal. Rather it is leveraging relationships with IT and making apps
`simple to build. So in essence its strategy is to make ServiceNow a new type of application
`development platform, with a mainspring from traditional IT. The key metric to watch is how fast
`organizations will develop apps on ServiceNow’s platform and how quickly it can build its developer
`base.
`Ecosystem: Any platform player needs a strong ecosystem, and ServiceNow’s is growing. Pay
`attention to the number of players and their monetization opportunities as good indicators of long-term
`success.
`Customer Loyalty: In Wikibon’s view, ServiceNow customers are perhaps the most vocally thrilled of
`7.
`any company we’ve ever seen in terms of voicing their utter pleasure with a vendor. To what degree
`can ServiceNow maintain that loyalty as it expands its TAM.
`
`4.
`
`5.
`
`6.
`
`On balance we believe market tailwinds, combined with ServiceNow’s execution to date, technical and
`management prowess, sales effectiveness and customer loyalty put it in an excellent position to continue to
`grow at a rapid pace, create new markets and add significant value to stakeholders.
`
`Action Item: For years, IT service management has suffered the "Cobbler's Children" syndrome in
`technology departments, with revenue-producing initiatives consistently trumping investments in
`ITSM. ServiceNow has radically changed the perception of of ITSM and is demonstrating that a
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`flexible, SaaS-based, single data model system--where all service modules have access to the same
`data--can drive significant business value. Practitioners struggling with inefficient and non-agile ITSM
`processes should investigate ServiceNow and similar platforms and/or challenge incumbent ITSM
`suppliers to deliver similar organizational outcomes.
`
`Footnotes:
`
`categories
`Cloud, Help Desk, IT-as-a-Service, ITSM, Professional alerts, SaaS, ServiceNow, Service management
`Contributors
`
`Bert Latamore
`
`Wikibon
`
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`Wikibon
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`Dvellante
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`Dvellante
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`Dvellante
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`Timestamp
`14 Jan 11
`17:24:18
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`Comment
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`/* Competitive Outlook */
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`/* Competitive Outlook */
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`/* Deeper Discussion on the ServiceNow TAM */
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`/* What to Watch Going Forward */
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`/* What to Watch Going Forward */
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`/* What to Watch Going Forward */
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`/* What to Watch Going Forward */
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`/* Is ServiceNow’s Architecture Truly Modern or
`Just Good Marketing? */
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`/* Deeper Discussion on the ServiceNow TAM */
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`/* How Did ServiceNow Become So Successful? */
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`/* Does ServiceNow’s TAM Justify its Valuation? */
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`Created page with '====Introduction====
`ServiceNow (NYSE NOW) is one of the hottest
`companies in the software business with a current
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`ServiceNow: Redefining Enterprise IT Service Management - Wikibon
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