throbber
Peer stock short interest and future returns
`
`Ferhat Akbas, Ekkehart Boehmer, Egemen Genc*
`
`
`
`ABSTRACT
`
`Firm-level monthly short interest is positively and significantly related to the returns of firms that
`compete in the same product markets. This finding is robust to standard controls and cannot be
`explained by industry momentum, industry lead-lag relationships, or industry information
`spillover effects. Short interest also contains information about the fundamentals of competing
`firms. Trading cost reductions are an important driver for trading a firm’s competitors rather than
`the firm’s own stocks. Our findings suggest that short sellers’ trades play an important role in the
`price discovery of competing firms, beyond their direct effects documented previously.
`
`February, 2015
`
`
`
`
`
`*Akbas is from the University of Kansas (akbas@ku.edu), Boehmer is from Singapore Management University
`(eboehmer@smu.edu.sg). Genc is from Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University (egenc@rsm.nl). We
`thank seminar participants at the University of Kansas for their insightful comments.
`
`
`
`
`
`CFAD VI 1070 - 0001
`CFAD VI v. CELGENE
`IPR2015-01102
`
`

`
`1. Introduction
`
`Informed traders influence contemporaneous and future security prices. Depending on
`
`both the aggressiveness of the informed traders and the amount traded, prices will converge more
`
`or less quickly to the new equilibrium price. These dynamics are quite well understood (Kyle,
`
`1985). However, firms are not independent entities and information signals other than the ones
`
`from its own trading environment potentially affect their stock prices and improve the price
`
`discovery. While recent studies point out that order flows containing industry or market wide
`
`information can contemporaneously affect the return of more than one security (Tookes, 2008;
`
`Pasquariello and Vega, 2013), relatively little is known about whether and how informed trading
`
`in stocks of competing firms affects a firm’s own stock price. To narrow this gap, we study
`
`information transmission between economically linked stocks through informed trading on firm
`
`specific information.
`
`Our experiment involves studying the effect of trades of short sellers, who are generally
`
`considered to be well-informed traders, on the future share prices of product-market competitors.
`
`Controlling for firm and industry characteristics, we show that short interest in a particular stock,
`
`despite its negative effect on its own future price, is significantly and positively related to future
`
`returns and earnings surprises of the closest competitor. We define the closest competitor as a
`
`firm’s closest neighbor in terms of product market share. Accounting for about two thirds of the
`
`average absolute effect of short interest, cross-price impact of a firm’s short position is
`
`economically large. Using only stocks in the top short-interest quintile, a trading strategy that
`
`goes short in the competitors of the least-shorted quintile of stocks and long in the competitors of
`
`the most-shorted quintile earns a significant 71 basis points per month, or 8.52% per year.
`
`
`
`1
`
`CFAD VI 1070 - 0002
`
`

`
`We conjecture that cross-price impacts arise because stock market frictions, especially
`
`short selling constraints, prevent short sellers from fully trading on their information. In the
`
`presence of short selling constraints, short sellers find it costly to trade on all their information
`
`using stocks of only one firm, so that part of their information is revealed through their trades in
`
`competing firms. To test this conjecture, we examine the role of short selling constraints and find
`
`that more binding constraints appear to let traders prefer a long position in the competing firm.
`
`Specifically, standard measures of shorting costs—such as the absence of listed put options,
`
`small firm size, and high idiosyncratic volatility—are all associated with greater cross-price
`
`impacts. Thus the cross-price impact increases when a firm has higher shorting costs.
`
`The positive cross-firm impact suggests that the information content is competitive and
`
`firm specific, rather than industry-wide. These results are robust to controlling for industry-wide
`
`short interest, further supporting this view. Moreover, industry short interest has no effect on
`
`future returns. Indeed, the economic link as a close competitor is crucial in finding the positive
`
`cross-firm effect. We demonstrate the importance of this economic link by running simulations
`
`in which we randomly select firms from the same or from other industries, rather than identifying
`
`close competitors. In contrast to Pasquariello and Vega (2013), who look at trading in general
`
`rather than at short selling, we find no cross-price impact for economically unrelated firms.
`
`Instead, the strength of the economic link between two firms drives our results. Moreover, the
`
`results are not short-term price impacts that are later reversed. We show that the cross-price
`
`impact survives up to one year, and the competing firm’s short interest predicts future earnings
`
`surprises. Both results lend support to the premise that the cross-firm effect is driven by informed
`
`trading stemming from firm specific information.
`
`
`
`2
`
`CFAD VI 1070 - 0003
`
`

`
`We focus on the price impact across product-market competitors for two reasons. First, as
`
`formalized by Tookes’ (2008), product market competition provides incentives for trading in
`
`competing firms.1 In a competitive environment, firm-specific news that improves the value of
`
`one firm can negatively affect the value of other firms, and vice versa. For example, the success
`
`of a car manufacturer with a particular model is likely to reduce sales for competing models, or a
`
`pharmaceutical company’s breakthrough drug will reduce the sales of competing drugs. In this
`
`setting, when short sellers obtain firm-level information for a company, they can infer the impact
`
`of that same information for the firm’s competitor, and can strategically chose to split their trades
`
`between the firm and the competitor to minimize the overall costs of short selling.
`
`To examine this idea empirically, we focus on short positions around analyst
`
`recommendation downgrades, known to be important events with negative price reactions
`
`(Womack, 1996; Barber, Lehavy, McHichols, and Trueman, 2001). We isolate cases in which an
`
`analyst downgrade occurs in a firm, while its competitor does not experience such an event. We
`
`find that prior to analyst downgrades, short interest increases in the event firm.
`
`Contemporaneously, short sellers decrease their short positions in the firm’s competitor before
`
`the downgrade even though the competitor does not have any such event over a twelve-month
`
`window around the downgrade announcement. This finding suggests that short sellers can extract
`
`useful information that was originally about one firm to take a position not only in the affected
`
`firm but also in its competitors.
`
`
`1 In her model, informed traders decide to trade privately obtained information about a firm’s future production costs
`either in that firm’s stock or in the stock of competitors in an oligopolistic market. Empirically, using a small sample
`of earnings announcements, she shows that non-announcing firms’ order flows, measured over short term intervals
`such as five minutes, contain information about the announcing firm.
`
`
`
`
`3
`
`CFAD VI 1070 - 0004
`
`

`
`Second, short sellers can hedge their positions by taking an opposite position in a close
`
`competitor when trading on their information in a stock. If short sellers cannot fully exploit their
`
`information in a stock due to short selling constraints, then their hedge positions in a close
`
`competitor would signal part of their information. It should be noted that, in this second
`
`mechanism, short sellers’ trade in a particular stock is still motivated by information and they
`
`trade in the close competitor for hedging purposes. Nonetheless, in either strategic trading or
`
`hedging mechanisms, short sellers are more likely to trade in close product-market competitors.
`
`This provides us a natural experimental that allows us to test our view that short sellers’
`
`information is partially revealed through their trades in close competitors.
`
`There are several reasons for focusing on short interest to examine the information flow
`
`across competing firms. First, a substantial literature demonstrates that short sellers are typically
`
`informed traders and that their trades predict future stock prices and fundamental firm specific
`
`information.2 Second, short sellers have superior information processing skills, being able to
`
`distinguish between bad news and seemingly neutral or positive news (Engelberg, Reed, and
`
`Ringgenberg, 2012). Third, because low levels of short interest predict significantly higher
`
`returns and upcoming good news (Boehmer, Huszar, Jordan, 2010; Akbas, Boehmer, Erturk, and
`
`Sorescu, 2013), short sellers are also good at avoiding upcoming good news. Therefore, short
`
`interest is also informative about a simultaneous long position that short sellers might take in a
`
`competing firm. This argument suggests that short sellers also trade on positive information.
`
`We assess the robustness of our findings by showing that our results are not sensitive to
`
`using different industry classifications, alternative ways of defining competing firms, and using a
`
`
`2 Among others see Diether, Lee, and Werner, 2009; Boehmer, Jones, and Zhang, 2008; Asquith, Pathak, and Ritter,
`2005, Christophe, Ferri, and Angel, 2004, Christophe, Ferri, and Hsieh 2009; Karpoff, 2010, Akbas, Boehmer,
`Erturk, and Sorescu, 2013.
`
`
`
`4
`
`CFAD VI 1070 - 0005
`
`

`
`portfolio of competing firms rather than just one competing firm. The results survive after we
`
`control for various risk factors and controlling for firm, competitor, and industry characteristics
`
`does not change our inference. Our results are not driven by the lead-lag relationship between
`
`small and big firms (Lo and MacKinlay, 1990; Hou and Moskowitz, 2005; Hou, 2007), by
`
`industry momentum (Moskowitz and Grinblatt, 1999), or by complicated firm effects (Cohen
`
`and Lou, 2012). Finally, controlling for each firm’s short-interest does not affect the predictive
`
`power of competing-firm short interest.
`
`Our analysis contributes to five strands of the financial economics literature. First, the
`
`paper adds to the studies that explore financial and product market interactions.3 Our results
`
`contribute to this literature by showing that the product market links informed trading and future
`
`price changes across related firms due to trading frictions in the stock market. A related stream
`
`of research studies the effect of information releases around a firm’s announcements on the value
`
`of related firms in the same industry. For example, Foster (1981) and Freeman and Tse (1992)
`
`show that a firm’s earnings announcements evoke price reactions and changes in the income of
`
`other firms in the same industry. Additional events associated with information transfers include
`
`bankruptcy announcements (Lang and Stulz, 1992), stock repurchases (Hertzel, 1991),
`
`accounting restatements (Gleason, Jenkins, and Johnson, 2008), managers’ voluntary earnings
`
`forecasts (Han, Wild, and Ramesh, 1989), dividend announcements (Laux, Starks, and Yoon,
`
`1998), initial acquisitions (Song and Walkling, 2000), antitrust actions (Bittlingmayer and
`
`Hazlett, 2000), and going private transactions (Slovin, Sushka, and Bendeck, 1991). In contrast,
`
`we study the trading activity of a group of investors and complement this literature by showing
`
`
`3 See Titman (1984), Brander and Lewis (1986), Maksimovic and Titman (1991), Chevalier and Scharfstein (1996),
`Allen and Phillips (2000), Gaspar and Massa (2006), Hou and Robinson (2006), Tookes (2008), Irvine and Pontiff
`(2009), Aguerrevere (2009), Hoberg and Phillips (2010), Peress (2010), and Lyandres and Watanabe (2011).
`
`
`
`5
`
`CFAD VI 1070 - 0006
`
`

`
`that the transactions of these informed traders reveal information about the prices of competitors,
`
`even without a major announcement about that competitor. Moreover, most of these studies find
`
`contagion effects. Specifically, the price reaction of the announcing and related (rival) firm go in
`
`the same direction suggesting that some common factors (i.e., industry-wide) are at work. We
`
`document, however, a cross-price impact in the opposite direction, suggesting that in our setting
`
`competitive effects are more important than industry-wide effects.
`
`Second, we contribute to the literature on price discovery in stock markets with related
`
`securities.4 This literature examines the commonality of liquidity (e.g., Chordia, Roll, and
`
`Subrahmanyam, 2000), the commonality of order flows (Harford and Kaul, 2005), or common
`
`factors affecting prices, order flow, and liquidity. We complement this literature by showing that
`
`informed trading in competing firms, a special case of commonality, also improves price
`
`discovery. Our results suggest that to understand a firm’s price discovery process fully, one not
`
`only needs to consider information about the firm itself but also must evaluate information about
`
`its competitors and about market frictions such as short selling constraints.
`
`Third, our paper contributes to the literature on short selling, which suggests that short
`
`selling is informative about future returns on the shorted stock and improves the price discovery
`
`process (Boehmer, Jones, and Zhang, 2008; Asquith, Pathak, and Ritter, 2005; Boehmer and Wu,
`
`2013; Saffi and Sigurdsson, 2011). Diamond and Verrecchia (1987) hypothesize that short sale
`
`constraints reduce the speed of price adjustments to private information, a hypothesis that finds
`
`empirical support in Reed (2007). Importantly, in this paper we show that information about
`
`
`4 A vast literature addresses price discovery in a single security or in multiple securities that represent different
`claims on the same underlying asset, such as stocks and options or stocks and futures. See, among others, Hasbrouck
`(1991), Madhavan, Richardson, and Roomans (1997), Dufour and Engle (2000), Biais and Hillion (1994), Easley,
`O’Hara, and Srinivas (1998), Chan, Chung, and Fong (2002), Chakravarty, Gulen, and Mayhew (2004), Cao, Chen,
`and Griffin (2005), Harris (1989), and Chan (1992).
`
`
`
`6
`
`CFAD VI 1070 - 0007
`
`

`
`short selling is important even beyond the firm in which it takes place. Short selling in one firm
`
`predicts the future returns and earnings surprises of competing firms, revealing a cross-firm price
`
`discovery mechanism particularly in the presence of short sale constraints.
`
`Fourth, the cross-price impact that we document is related to the concept of pairs trading.
`
`In its simplest form, this strategy involves the simultaneous purchase and (short) sale of two
`
`securities whose prices historically move together to exploit the temporary price spread between
`
`two co-integrated stocks (Gatev, Goetzmann, and Rouwenhorst, 2006). The cross-firm trading
`
`that we analyze in this paper is a type of pairs trading, involving the trading of two stocks that
`
`compete in the product market in opposite directions. The link between those stocks, however, is
`
`not purely statistical, and possibly resulting in a high correlation of returns. Instead, it is driven
`
`by an economic link driven by product market competition. We find that the cross-price impact
`
`is more pronounced among competing firms with lower return correlation (or higher negative
`
`correlation). Therefore, our results do not merely indicate a pure statistical arbitrage strategy, as
`
`described by Gatev, Goetzmann, and Rouwenhorst (2006) that relies on the mean reversion of
`
`the price spread. Instead, cross-firm trading originates from informed traders and based on
`
`changes in the fundamentals of the firms.
`
`Fifth, this paper contributes to the literature on investors’ delayed reaction to publicly
`
`available information. In this literature, delayed reaction might be due to investors’ limited
`
`attention, physiological biases, or limits to arbitrage.5 We show that information that is readily
`
`publicly available, i.e. competing firms’ monthly short interest, is only slowly incorporated into
`
`
`5 Among others, please see the following papers for an extensive theoretical argument and empirical support for the
`delayed reaction view: Kahneman and Tversky (2000), Foster, Olsen, and Shevlin (1984), Bernard and Thomas
`(1989), Daniel, Hirshleifer, and Subrahmanyam (1998), Hong and Stein (1999), Hong, Lim and Stein (2000),
`Huberman and Regev (2001), Ikenberry and Ramnath (2002), Hirshleifer and Teoh (2003), Hirschey and
`Richardson (2003), Barber and Odean (2008), DellaVigna and Pollet (2006), Hou (2007), Menzly and Ozbas (2006),
`Hong, Torous, and Valkanov (2007), Zhang (2006), Boehmer, Jones and Zhang (2008), and Duffie (2010).
`
`
`
`7
`
`CFAD VI 1070 - 0008
`
`

`
`the stock prices of a firm. While prior studies find delays in the processing of cross-industry
`
`information flows (Menzly and Ozbas, 2006), information flows from firms that have strong
`
`economic links (Cohen and Frazzini, 2008), and industry wide information flows when firms are
`
`difficult to evaluate (Cohen and Lou, 2012), we show that information flows about competitors
`
`are also processed with a delay.
`
`The paper proceeds as follows. Section 2 describes the selection of competing firms and
`
`the construction of the sample. Section 3 presents the main results on the effect of short interest
`
`in competing firms. Section 4 explores the nature of this cross-price impact, and Section 5
`
`discusses short sellers’ incentives to trade in the competing firms. Section 6 performs a battery of
`
`robustness tests using alternative competitor firm and industry definitions, and Section 7
`
`concludes.
`
`
`
`2. Data and variables
`
`2.1. Computing competing firms’ short interest
`
`We measure short sellers’ activity using monthly short interest (SHORT) for each stock,
`
`defined as total shares shorted divided by the total shares outstanding measured mid-month. We
`
`use the Kth Neighborhood method to determine a firm’s closest competitor within an industry.
`
`First, we define industries using the SIC3-industry classification. In robustness tests, we obtain
`
`qualitatively identical results using 4-digit SIC, 3- or 4-digit NAICS industry definitions, and
`
`Hoberg and Phillips’s (2010) industry classifications based on text-based analysis of firms’
`
`product descriptions.
`
`Second, for all firms within an industry, we calculate the absolute distance of its market
`
`share to all other firms in that industry. The closest competitor of a firm is determined, with
`
`
`
`8
`
`CFAD VI 1070 - 0009
`
`

`
`replacement, as the one that has the smallest absolute difference in market share. In rare cases,
`
`more than one competitor shares the same absolute difference with a firm. In these cases, we take
`
`all these peers as competitors. Finally, C_SHORT is defined as the short interest in the
`
`competing firm (or the average, if there is more than one closest competitor). Although all firms
`
`in the same industry compete with one another to some extent, we argue that firms with similar
`
`market share in an industry should have the greatest informational connection and, in turn,
`
`influence each other’s stock prices more.
`
`In robustness tests, we use different ways of classifying competing firms. First, we use a
`
`firms’ price-cost margin (the Lerner Index), instead of market share, to find a firm’s closest
`
`competitor. Second, we define C_SHORT as the average of the two, three, and four closest
`
`competitors’ short interest or as the average of all firms’ short interest within the same market
`
`share cluster6 or within groups formed simply by ranking based on market share.7 The results for
`
`each of these approaches are qualitatively the same and even larger in magnitude.
`
`2.2. Data
`
` The sample consists of all NYSE or NASDAQ-listed common stocks for which monthly
`
`short interest reports are available over the period from June 1988 to December 2012. To ensure
`
`that the results are not driven by extremely illiquid stocks, we exclude stocks with a previous
`
`month-end price below five dollars. We also require the availability of at least 12 months of past
`
`return data from CRSP and accounting data with industry classification codes from
`
`COMPUSTAT for both a firm and its closest competitor.
`
`
`6The clustering procedure forms groups of firms so that the firms within a group, or cluster, have market shares
`more similar to each other than to firms outside the group. In other words, the difference between members of
`different clusters is greater than the differences between members of the same cluster. We use a classification
`algorithm similar to Gitman (1973) and Huizinga (1978) and provide more details in the robustness section.
`7 Ranking creates groups of equal frequency independent of the distribution of market shares within the industry. In
`contrast, clustering relies on non-parametric density estimation and can form groups of different sizes, depending on
`how market shares are distributed within the industry.
`
`
`
`9
`
`CFAD VI 1070 - 0010
`
`

`
`Our control variables are defined as follows. SIZE is the market value of equity,
`
`calculated as the previous month-end number of shares outstanding times share price. BM is the
`
`ratio of the previous quarter-end book to market value of equity. TURN is the monthly share
`
`turnover ratio, measured as the number of shares traded divided by the number of outstanding
`
`shares. C_TURN is the monthly turnover ratio of the close competitor firm and controls for the
`
`trading activity in the competitor firm. In regression analyses, we use the log of SIZE and BM
`
`because both variables display considerable skewness. IVOL is idiosyncratic daily return
`
`volatility, calculated as the standard deviation of daily residuals from the Fama-French (1993)
`
`model over a month as in Ang, Hodrick, Xing, and Zhang (2006). To calculate this variable, we
`
`require at least 15 days of daily return data. IO measures institutional ownership, defined as the
`
`sum of the holdings of all institutions for each stock in each quarter divided by the number of
`
`shares outstanding from CRSP. Stocks with available return data but no reported institutional
`
`holdings are assumed to have zero IO. Data on IO come from 13-F filings through Thomson
`
`Financial.
`
`We control for lagged returns of each stock, MOM, its competitors, C_MOM, and its
`
`industry, IND_MOM. MOM is the cumulative return over the past twelve months and captures
`
`the momentum effect documented by Jegadeesh and Titman (1993). IND_MOM controls for
`
`industry momentum (Moskowitz and Grinblatt, 1999) and is computed as the equally-weighted
`
`industry return over the past twelve months. Finally, to control for within-industry lead-lag
`
`effects (Hou, 2007), we calculate the corresponding returns to small firms, IND_MOM
`
`_SMALL, and large firms, IND_MOM _BIG, within each industry. To calculate returns to small
`
`and big firms in each industry, every month we group firms into three groups by their previous
`
`month-end market capitalization. Then the return to big firms is the equally weighted average of
`
`
`
`10
`
`CFAD VI 1070 - 0011
`
`

`
`firm returns in the top size tercile and the return to small firms is the equally weighted average of
`
`firm returns in the bottom size tercile.
`
`Table 1 shows the summary statistics and correlations for these variables. In Panel A, we
`
`show the time-series averages of cross-sectional statistics. We have on average 1893 stocks per
`
`month in our sample. The average (median) short interest (SHORT) is 3.19% (1.91%) for the
`
`sample. For the set of closest competitors, the average (median) short interest (C_SHORT) is
`
`2.96 % (1.73%). The average firm size is 2.98 billion dollars, and firm size exhibits considerable
`
`variation, suggesting that our sample contains both small and big firms.
`
`Panel B shows the correlation matrix. The correlation between short interest, SHORT,
`
`and competitor firms’ average short interest, C_SHORT, is 0.282. The moderate positive
`
`correlation suggests that the two measures largely capture different information. Our main
`
`variable of interest, C_SHORT, is positively correlated with size and turnover and negatively
`
`correlated with book-to-market. These correlations are smaller than the correlation between
`
`firm’s own short interest, SHORT, and firm size and turnover. Correlations of competitor firms’
`
`average short interest, C_SHORT, with other stock and industry variables are less than 0.3.
`
`In Table 2, we present portfolio sorts as a precursor to our main regression analysis. Each
`
`month, we first group our sample into short interest (SHORT) quintiles and then rank them based
`
`on their competing firms’ average short interest (C_SHORT) within each short interest (SHORT)
`
`quintile. All sorts are independent. We report time series averages of equally weighted monthly
`
`portfolio returns and alphas obtained from Carhart’s (1997) four-factor model. We skip a month
`
`between the portfolio formation period and the holding period. Our results show a positive and
`
`significant relationship between future returns and the short interest in its closest competitor.
`
`This relationship is most pronounced for high short interest stocks, and it survives after we adjust
`
`
`
`11
`
`CFAD VI 1070 - 0012
`
`

`
`for risk using the Carhart four factor models. The raw (risk adjusted) return difference between
`
`the highest and lowest C_SHORT quintiles ranges from 18 (9) to 71 (70) basis points per month,
`
`suggesting a high economic impact particularly among stocks in the top short-interest quintile.
`
`Similar return difference for short interest of the firm ranges from 37 (43) to 102 (118) basis
`
`points per month. This suggests that the predictive power of competing firm short interest is
`
`about two thirds of the predictive power of a firm’s own short interest. Thus competing-firm
`
`short interest is economically important, both in an absolute sense and relative to the well-
`
`established short-interest effect on future returns.
`
`
`
`3. Competing firm short interest and future returns
`
`In this section, we use Fama-MacBeth (1973) regressions to test the main hypothesis of
`
`our paper: that short interest contains information about competing firms. Specifically, we
`
`regress a firm’s future returns on the short interest in its closest competitor, controlling for
`
`characteristics that might differentiate the two firms. To avoid potential bid-ask bounce effects
`
`on our estimates, we skip one month between formation and holding period in all our regression
`
`tests. The main variable of interest is competing-firm short interest (C_SHORT), and we test
`
`how it is related to a firm’s future return at different horizons. The regressions include various
`
`firm and industry controls that are known to affect returns. To account for autocorrelation in the
`
`monthly time-series of cross-sectional Fama-MacBeth coefficients, we use Newey-West standard
`
`errors with six lags.
`
`Table 3 displays determinants of future one-month returns. The first specification is
`
`analogous to our portfolio double sorts, except that we now use continuous variables to measure
`
`short interest (SHORT) and competing-firm short interest (C_SHORT). The second specification
`
`
`
`12
`
`CFAD VI 1070 - 0013
`
`

`
`is our baseline model with controls for the log of market capitalization (SIZE), the log of the
`
`book-to-market ratio (BM), share turnover (TURN), idiosyncratic return volatility (IVOL),
`
`institutional ownership (IO), and past twelve-month return (MOM).
`
`Cohen and Lou (2011) argue that price reaction of an easy-to-analyze firm may lead the
`
`price reaction of a complicated firm, when both are subject to a common shock. If a competing
`
`firm is an easy-to-analyze firm, we could find a relationship between a firm’s future return and
`
`competing-firm short interest just because short interest and past returns are correlated for the
`
`competing-firm (Diether, Lee, and Werner, 2009). In the third specification, we address this
`
`possibility by including firms’ past 12-month cumulative return (C_MOM) in our regressions.
`
`Moreover, short interest in competing firm might simply proxy for overall trading interest in a
`
`set of firms including the competitor and the firm. In the literature several papers (e.g. Chordia
`
`and Swaminathan, 2000, Hou and Moskowitz, 2005) document that interest in a firm as
`
`measured by trading activity affects the lead-lag affects in returns and predicts future returns. To
`
`address this possibility, we control for trading activity measured as share turnover, C_TURN, in
`
`the competing firm.
`
`In the fourth specification, to ensure that our results are not driven by the industry
`
`momentum effect documented by Moskowitz and Grinblatt (1999), we use as a control the
`
`lagged 12-month returns of the firm’s industry, IND_MOM. In the fifth specification, we control
`
`for within-industry lead-lag effects (Hou, 2007) by adding average past returns for small firms
`
`(IND_MOM_SMALL) and for large firms (IND_MOM_BIG) in each industry. Finally, although
`
`the correlation between SHORT and C_SHORT is not large, in the sixth specification we
`
`
`
`13
`
`CFAD VI 1070 - 0014
`
`

`
`exclude a firm’s own short interest (SHORT) to make sure that our results are not affected by a
`
`potential multicollinearity problem.8
`
`The results in Table 3 show that, regardless of specification, a firm’s future one-month
`
`return is positive and significantly related to competing-firm short interest. The coefficients on
`
`C_SHORT range from 0.015 to 0.019, with corresponding t-values of 2.67 to 3.21. As expected,
`
`and as consistent with prior studies, SHORT is always negative and significantly related to future
`
`returns. In our main specification (column 2), the coefficients on C_SHORT and SHORT imply
`
`that, in magnitude, after controlling for other firm characteristics the predictive power of
`
`competing firm short interest is about one third of the predictive power of a firm’s own short
`
`interest. Thus competing-firm short interest is economically important, both in an absolute sense
`
`and relative to the well-established short-interest effect on future returns.
`
`When we examine the control variables, SIZE is negatively and IO is positively related to
`
`future returns, and both are significant. IVOL has a marginally significant negative coefficient,
`
`while BM has a positive but insignificant coefficient. We further estimate positive and
`
`significant coefficients for IND, MOM, and BIG. Most importantly, C_SHORT preserves its
`
`significance after we control for other firm characteristics, including size, IO, BM, and the
`
`competing firm momentum, trading activity and, industry returns. Thus, our results are not
`
`driven by complicated-firm effects, lead-lag effects, or competing-firm momentum.
`
`Overall, the results in Table 3 suggest that future stock returns are positively related to
`
`competing firms’ short interest level. This effect is robust to the inclusion of various controls
`
`such as the firm’s own short interest, stock price momentum, size, book-to-market, institutional
`
`
`8 Because the correlation between IND_MOM and IND_MOM_BIG is high, we do not include these variables
`together in the same model. However, the results on the coefficient of C_SHORT and SHORT are similar if we
`include all these variables simultaneously.
`
`
`
`14
`
`CFAD VI 1070 - 0015
`
`

`
`ownership, and idiosyncratic volatility. Moreover, industry lead-lag effects, competitors past
`
`returns and trading activity, or industry momentum do not explain our findings.
`
`
`
`4. Exploring the nature of information in competing firm short interest
`
`Our previous tests establish a positive relationship between the competing firm short
`
`interest and that firm’s returns at monthly frequency. To better understand the natur

This document is available on Docket Alarm but you must sign up to view it.


Or .

Accessing this document will incur an additional charge of $.

After purchase, you can access this document again without charge.

Accept $ Charge
throbber

Still Working On It

This document is taking longer than usual to download. This can happen if we need to contact the court directly to obtain the document and their servers are running slowly.

Give it another minute or two to complete, and then try the refresh button.

throbber

A few More Minutes ... Still Working

It can take up to 5 minutes for us to download a document if the court servers are running slowly.

Thank you for your continued patience.

This document could not be displayed.

We could not find this document within its docket. Please go back to the docket page and check the link. If that does not work, go back to the docket and refresh it to pull the newest information.

Your account does not support viewing this document.

You need a Paid Account to view this document. Click here to change your account type.

Your account does not support viewing this document.

Set your membership status to view this document.

With a Docket Alarm membership, you'll get a whole lot more, including:

  • Up-to-date information for this case.
  • Email alerts whenever there is an update.
  • Full text search for other cases.
  • Get email alerts whenever a new case matches your search.

Become a Member

One Moment Please

The filing “” is large (MB) and is being downloaded.

Please refresh this page in a few minutes to see if the filing has been downloaded. The filing will also be emailed to you when the download completes.

Your document is on its way!

If you do not receive the document in five minutes, contact support at support@docketalarm.com.

Sealed Document

We are unable to display this document, it may be under a court ordered seal.

If you have proper credentials to access the file, you may proceed directly to the court's system using your government issued username and password.


Access Government Site

We are redirecting you
to a mobile optimized page.





Document Unreadable or Corrupt

Refresh this Document
Go to the Docket

We are unable to display this document.

Refresh this Document
Go to the Docket