Global Research
`
`15 June 2014
`
`(cid:4)(cid:5)
`
`
`
`
`
`Marc Goodman
`Analyst
`marc.goodman@ubs.com
`+1-212-713 1342
`
`U.S. Specialty Pharmaceuticals
`Valeant Rx Tracker
`
`
`Equities
`
`
`
`Americas
`Pharmaceuticals
`
`Issuing June edition of Rx tracker for Valeant’s US products
`We include IMS TRx-based driven product sales models for Valeant’s US business
`segments (Dermatology, Neurology/Other, and Ophthalmology – mostly Bausch and
`Lomb's products). We drive our US Valeant model assumptions from these IMS models.
`
`April 2014 TRx growth: Derm (-24% Y/Y), Neuro/Other (-19%) & Ophth (+27%)
`In calculating the Derm, Neuro/Other, and Ophthalmology TRx growth, we only include
`products for which we track using IMS TRx data. The Dermatology products generally
`had declining Y/Y growth in April, but Luzu is off to a solid start with 1,185 TRxs in the
`first month of launch. We look to the launch of Jublia in 3Q to help offset the
`declining growth in the category. In Neurology, while TRx Y/Y growth was down
`(Lodosyn went generic), sequential growth was flat – which is an encouraging trend
`towards stabilization. We note that Xenazine had robust Y/Y growth (+33%) as well as
`good sequential growth (+3%) and Wellbutrin XL (genericized) continues to show signs
`of stabilization on a sequential basis. In Ophthalmology, Lotemax gel had >70% of the
`franchise which grew 5%. We note that the last Alrex patent expires in April 2014,
`and we previously modeled genericization in May but pushed this to June as there was
`no generic approval in May.
`
`Changes to our estimates
`There were no material changes to our sales estimates.
`
`
`
`www.ubs.com/investmentresearch
`
`This report has been prepared by UBS Securities LLC. ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND REQUIRED DISCLOSURES BEGIN ON
`PAGE 17. UBS does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be
`aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this
`report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
`
`Page 1 of 20
`
`SENJU EXHIBIT 2204
`LUPIN v. SENJU
`IPR2015-01100
`
`

`
`%-6.4%
`$73.1
`
`$78.0
`
`5.0
`-3
`
`$18.8
`
`2015E
`
`2014E
`
`4Q14E
`
`%-10.0%
`$95.01
`$21.4
`225,042
`
`$105.57
`$22.9
`216,870
`
`5.0
`-1
`
`-15.0%
`$105.57
`$6.3
`60,091
`
`2015E
`
`2014E
`
`4Q14E
`
`%
`5.9
`
`$354.47
`$9.7
`27,349
`
`%
`7.8
`
`$334.75
`$9.4
`27,998
`
`9.2%
`$339.06
`$2.5
`7,303
`
`2015E
`
`2014E
`
`4Q14E
`
`100%
`2.2%
`37.6%
`55.6%
`4.6%
`2015E
`
`100%
`1.5%
`38.0%
`55.5%
`4.9%
`2014E
`
`5.0%
`598,513
`2015E
`
`10.2%
`570,013
`2014E
`
`%
`5.6
`
`$240.27
`$63.4
`263,728
`
`%
`7.9
`
`$227.50
`$68.7
`274,717
`
`100%
`2.2%
`37.6%
`55.6%
`4.6%
`Dec-14E
`
`10.0%
`57,160
`Dec-14E
`
`9.2%
`$230.15
`$16.3
`70,873
`
`2015E
`
`2014E
`
`4Q14E
`
`100%
`2.2%
`37.6%
`55.6%
`4.6%
`Nov-14E
`
`10.0%
`51,229
`Nov-14E
`
`100%
`2.2%
`37.6%
`55.6%
`4.6%
`Oct-14E
`
`10.0%
`51,425
`Oct-14E
`
`%-4.0%
`263,728
`
`274,717
`
`8.8
`-1
`
`-15.0%
`25,268
`
`-15.0%
`22,458
`
`-15.0%
`23,147
`
`$17.0
`
`3Q14E
`
`-15.0%
`$105.57
`$5.5
`52,255
`
`3Q14E
`
`9.2%
`$339.06
`$2.2
`6,350
`
`3Q14E
`
`100%
`2.2%
`37.6%
`55.6%
`4.6%
`Sep-14E
`
`10.0%
`45,627
`Sep-14E
`
`9.2%
`$230.15
`$14.8
`64,495
`
`3Q14E
`
`-15.0%
`21,007
`
`100%
`22%
`37.6%
`55.6%
`4.6%
`Aug-14E
`
`10.0%
`47,304
`Aug-14E
`
`100%
`2.2%
`37.6%
`55.6%
`4.6%
`Jul-14E
`
`10.0%
`46,045
`Jul-14E
`
`-15.0%
`21,710
`
`-15.0%
`21,779
`
`$17.2
`
`2Q14E
`
`2Q14E
`
`2015E
`
`2014E
`
`Dec-14E
`
`Nov-14E
`
`Oct-14E
`
`Sep-14E
`
`Aug-14E
`
`Jul-14E
`
`
`
`
`
`(cid:4)(cid:5) 2
`
`Source: Company reports, IMS database and UBS estimates
`
`-15.0%
`$105.57
`$5.3
`50,403
`
`9.0%
`9.2%
`$339.06
`$2.1
`6,072
`
`2Q14E
`
`100%
`2.2%
`37.6%
`55.6%
`4.6%
`Jun-14E
`
`10.0%
`43,163
`Jun-14E
`
`9.0%
`9.2%
`$230.15
`$15.2
`65,977
`
`2Q14E
`
`-15.0%
`20,812
`
`$25.0
`
`1Q14A
`
`-15.0%
`NM
`$105.57
`$5.7
`54,121
`
`1Q14A
`
`Price Decrease:
`
`9.0%Price Increase (4/1/2014):
`4.5%
`$324.46
`$2.7
`8,273
`
`100%
`2.2%
`37.6%
`55.6%
`4.6%
`Apr-14May-14E
`
`100%
`0.2%
`38.6%
`56.6%
`4.6%
`
`10.8%
`10.0%
`44,207
`45,505
`Apr-14May-14E
`
`1Q14A
`
`100%
`0.0%
`39.3%
`55.4%
`5.2%
`Mar-14
`
`15.4%
`46,190
`Mar-14
`
`9.0%Price Increase (4/1/2014):
`4.5%
`$220.24
`$22.4
`73,371
`$6.2
`1Q14A
`
`Price Increase (1/7/2014):
`
`100%
`0.0%
`39.4%
`54.4%
`6.3%
`Feb-14
`
`10.7%
`43,235
`Feb-14
`
`100%
`0.0%
`38.7%
`54.9%
`6.4%
`Jan-14
`
`6.7%
`48,922
`Jan-14
`
`Price Increase (1/7/2014):
`
`Inventory Stocking:
`
`%
`1.0
`-5
`
`$120.0
`
`2013
`
`NM
`$124.20
`$23.6
`149,672
`
`2013
`
`%
`5.2
`
`$310.49
`$44.6
`188,344
`
`2013
`
`100%
`0.0%
`28.9%
`34.6%
`36.4%
`2013
`
`-4.3%
`517,081
`2013
`
`$210.75
`$51.6
`338,373
`
`2013
`
`-15.0%
`22,838
`
`-23.2%
`22,327
`
`-25.8%
`23,730
`
`-26.2%
`22,939
`
`%-25.1%
`26,702
`
`6.1
`-1
`
`338,373
`
`Sales Growth Rate
`
`Sales
`Valeant - Zovirax Cream/Ointment Total
`
`% Price Change
`Pricing Growth Rate
`Price/Rx
`Sales
`TRxs
`
`Valeant - Zovirax Ointment AG
`
`% Price Change
`Pricing Growth Rate
`Price/Rx
`Sales
`TRxs
`
`Valeant - Zovirax Ointment
`
`Total Zovirax Ointment Share
`Generic - Others
`Generic - AG
`Generic - Mylan
`Zovirax Ointment - Valeant
`Market Share
`
` Growth
`Total Zovirax Ointment TRxs
`Zovirax Ointment TRxs
`
`% Price Change
`Pricing Growth Rate
`
`Price/Rx
`Sales
`TRxs
`Zovirax Cream
`
`Growth Rate
`
`TRxs
`Zovirax Cream
`
`Jun-14E
`
`Apr-14May-14E
`
`Mar-14
`
`Feb-14
`
`Jan-14
`
`2013
`
`Figure 1: Valeant Dermatology Products – 2013 – 2015E Monthly
`
`
`
`
`
`U.S. Specialty Pharmaceuticals 15 June 2014
`
`
`
`Page 2 of 20
`
`

`
`
`
`21.7%10.1%
`$356.53
`$323.94
`$75.0
`$70.7
`210,258
`206,947
`
`14.5%
`$330.12
`$17.3
`52,331
`
`2015E
`
`2014E
`
`4Q14E
`
`%
`1.6
`
`210,258
`
`%
`9.0
`-1
`
`206,947
`
`-13.4%
`17,150
`
`2015E
`
`2014E
`
`Dec-14E
`
`%
`9.6
`
`$189.90
`$77.1
`406,008
`
`%
`6.5
`
`$173.30
`$75.0
`414,294
`
`2015E
`
`2014E
`
`%-2.0%
`406,008
`
`414,294
`
`-0.1
`
`7.9%
`$177.65
`$18.9
`106,308
`
`4Q14E
`
`0.0%
`35,397
`
`2015E
`
`2014E
`
`Dec-14E
`
`%
`0.0
`
`$9,462.25
`$74.5
`7,870
`
`22.5%
`$9,462.25
`$80.1
`8,284
`
`2015E
`
`2014E
`
`4Q14E
`
`%-5.0%
`7,870
`
`8,284
`
`1.6
`
`2015E
`
`2014E
`
`%
`9.0
`
`$507.82
`$185.2
`364,729
`
`22.2%
`$465.74
`$185.2
`397,651
`
`0.0%
`752
`
`10.0%
`12.4%
`$483.35
`$45.1
`93,388
`
`2015E
`
`2014E
`
`4Q14E
`
`%-8.3%
`364,729
`
`8.9
`-2
`
`397,651
`
`-25.7%
`30,762
`
`2015E
`
`2014E
`
`-10.2%
`16,674
`
`-10.2%
`18,508
`
`8.0%
`33.0%
`$330.12
`$17.8
`53,862
`
`3Q14E
`
`-9.9%
`16,818
`
`Price Increase
`
`-20.5%
`19,282
`
`-17.6%
`17,761
`
`Nov-14E
`
`Oct-14E
`
`Sep-14E
`
`Aug-14E
`
`Jul-14E
`
`0.0%
`34,476
`
`0.0%
`36,435
`
`9.0%
`9.3%
`$177.65
`$18.6
`104,566
`
`3Q14E
`
`0.0%
`33,213
`
`Price Increase:
`
`0.0%
`36,586
`
`0.0%
`34,767
`
`Nov-14E
`
`Oct-14E
`
`Sep-14E
`
`Aug-14E
`
`Jul-14E
`
`4.9%
`$9,462.25
`$21.0
`2,218
`
`0.0%
`724
`
`0.0%
`742
`
`29.4%
`$9,462.25
`$19.4
`2,051
`
`3Q14E
`
`0.0%
`630
`
`0.0%
`684
`
`0.0%
`737
`
`Dec-14E
`
`Nov-14E
`
`Oct-14E
`
`Sep-14E
`
`Aug-14E
`
`Jul-14E
`
`Price Increase
`
`-26.1%
`29,832
`
`-28.8%
`32,794
`
`25.3%
`$460.33
`$44.0
`95,625
`
`3Q14E
`
`-29.0%
`30,181
`
`-33.1%
`32,615
`
`-31.1%
`32,829
`
`Dec-14E
`
`Nov-14E
`
`Oct-14E
`
`Sep-14E
`
`Aug-14E
`
`Jul-14E
`
`9.7%
`$317.42
`$15.7
`49,403
`
`2Q14E
`
`-18.9%
`16,415
`
`-18.0%
`17,034
`
`-24.7%
`15,954
`
`15.0%
`30.5%
`$317.42
`$20.0
`51,351
`$3.7
`1Q14A
`
`-26.1%
`16,516
`
`Inventory Stocking:
`
`-25.8%
`15,720
`
`Jun-14E
`
`Apr-14May-14E
`
`Mar-14
`
`Feb-14
`
`3.3%
`$170.00
`$17.5
`103,147
`
`2Q14E
`
`0.0%
`33,356
`
`0.0%
`35,276
`
`-0.6%
`34,515
`
`6.0%
`5.2%
`$167.54
`$20.0
`100,273
`$3.2
`1Q14A
`
`0.4%
`34,325
`
`Inventory Stocking:
`
`-0.5%
`31,308
`
`Jun-14E
`
`Apr-14May-14E
`
`Mar-14
`
`Feb-14
`
`58.1%
`$9,462.25
`$19.7
`2,081
`
`2Q14E
`
`0.0%
`674
`
`10.0%
`11.2%
`$9,462.25
`$20.0
`1,934
`$1.7
`1Q14A
`
`Inventory Stocking:
`
`0.0%
`685
`
`11.8%
`722
`
`-4.9%
`615
`
`10.5%
`652
`
`3.7%
`667
`
`Jun-14E
`
`Apr-14May-14E
`
`Mar-14
`
`Feb-14
`
`25.6%
`$460.33
`$46.0
`100,021
`
`2Q14E
`
`-30.2%
`31,909
`
`-28.9%
`34,538
`
`-30.6%
`33,575
`
`9.0%
`25.8%
`$460.33
`$50.0
`108,617
`
`1Q14A
`
`-29.8%
`34,664
`
`-26.5%
`34,163
`
`Jun-14E
`
`Apr-14May-14E
`
`Mar-14
`
`Feb-14
`
`Jan-14
`
`
`
`Source: Company reports, IMS database and UBS estimates
`
`Price Increase (1/7/2014):
`
`25.3%
`$266.07
`$71.0
`255,573
`
`2013
`
`%-27.6%
`19,115
`
`2.7
`-2
`
`255,573
`
`Jan-14
`
`2013
`
`Price Increase (2/28/2014):
`
`%
`1.3
`
`$162.76
`$66.0
`414,732
`
`2013
`
`%-0.6%
`34,640
`
`0.2
`
`414,732
`
`Jan-14
`
`2013
`
`Price Increase (1/7/2014):
`
`$7,726.27
`$63.0
`8,154
`
`2013
`
`%
`-2.7
`
`8,154
`
`Jan-14
`
`2013
`
`Price Increase (1/7/2014):
`
`19.2%
`$381.15
`$208.0
`559,623
`
`2013
`
`%-26.9%
`39,790
`
`4.6
`-3
`
`559,623
`
`% Price Change
`Pricing Growth Rate
`
`Price/Rx
`Sales
`TRxs
`Ziana
`
`Growth Rate
`
`TRxs
`Ziana
`
`% Price Change
`Pricing Growth Rate
`
`Price/Rx
`Sales
`TRxs
`Elidel
`
`Growth Rate
`
`TRxs
`Elidel
`
`Pricing Growth Rate
`
`Price/Rx
`Sales
`TRxs
`Targretin
`
`Growth Rate
`
`TRxs
`Targretin
`
`% Price Change
`Pricing Growth Rate
`
`Price/Rx
`Sales
`TRxs
`Solodyn
`
`Growth Rate
`
`TRxs
`Solodyn
`
`Figure 2: Valeant Dermatology Products – 2013-2015E Monthly Continued
`
`2013
`
`
`
`U.S. Specialty Pharmaceuticals 15 June 2014
`
`(cid:4)(cid:5) 3
`
`
`
`Page 3 of 20
`
`

`
`
`
`10.8%14.6%
`$191.23
`$166.81
`$51.5
`$54.7
`269,430
`328,050
`
`14.9%
`$167.97
`$12.7
`75,383
`
`2015E
`
`2014E
`
`4Q14E
`
`%-17.9%
`269,430
`
`328,050
`
`3.0
`-2
`
`-34.9%
`24,564
`
`2015E
`
`2014E
`
`Dec-14E
`
`$35.8
`
`$59.4
`
`$12.2
`
`%-5.0%
`$178.01
`$30.5
`171,107
`
`$187.38
`$34.1
`182,028
`
`-2.2
`
`-2.5%
`$187.38
`$8.2
`43,844
`
`2015E
`
`2014E
`
`4Q14E
`
`%-6.0%
`171,107
`
`182,028
`
`2.0
`-1
`
`-35.0%
`13,466
`
`2015E
`
`2014E
`
`Dec-14E
`
`17.6%16.0%
`$477.46
`$411.58
`$5.4
`$25.3
`11,234
`53,004
`
`12.0%
`$427.25
`$4.0
`9,362
`
`2015E
`
`2014E
`
`4Q14E
`
`%-78.8%
`11,234
`
`53,004
`
`6.3
`-7
`
`-63.2%
`2,743
`
`2015E
`
`2014E
`
`Dec-14E
`
`%
`9.2
`
`$457.78
`$59.7
`130,332
`
`32.7%
`$419.34
`$65.2
`144,813
`
`32.9%
`$435.39
`$18.7
`42,899
`
`2015E
`
`2014E
`
`4Q14E
`
`%-10.0%
`130,332
`
`5.4
`-1
`
`144,813
`
`-15.0%
`13,213
`
`2015E
`
`2014E
`
`-29.8%
`24,023
`
`-28.5%
`26,795
`
`9.0%
`8.2%
`$167.97
`$13.6
`81,042
`
`3Q14E
`
`-27.1%
`24,614
`
`Price Increase
`
`-30.7%
`29,179
`
`-26.1%
`27,249
`
`Nov-14E
`
`Oct-14E
`
`Sep-14E
`
`Aug-14E
`
`Jul-14E
`
`-35.0%
`13,605
`
`-35.0%
`16,773
`
`$14.9
`
`-2.5%
`$187.38
`$9.5
`50,734
`
`3Q14E
`
`-35.0%
`15,757
`
`-35.0%
`19,021
`
`-35.0%
`15,956
`
`Nov-14E
`
`Oct-14E
`
`Sep-14E
`
`Aug-14E
`
`Jul-14E
`
`-60.5%
`2,975
`
`-57.7%
`3,644
`
`9.0%
`11.4%
`$427.25
`$5.4
`12,610
`
`3Q14E
`
`-59.7%
`3,622
`
`Price Increase:
`
`-63.1%
`4,508
`
`-64.7%
`4,480
`
`Nov-14E
`
`Oct-14E
`
`Sep-14E
`
`Aug-14E
`
`Jul-14E
`
`-15.0%
`13,909
`
`-15.0%
`15,776
`
`36.1%
`$435.39
`$13.3
`30,631
`
`3Q14E
`
`-15.0%
`11,737
`
`-15.0%
`9,931
`
`-15.0%
`8,963
`
`2Q14E
`
`$13.9
`
`Dec-14E
`
`Nov-14E
`
`Oct-14E
`
`Sep-14E
`
`Aug-14E
`
`Jul-14E
`
`0.0%
`$154.10
`$12.4
`80,774
`
`-24.8%
`25,844
`
`-18.1%
`27,163
`
`-19.3%
`27,767
`
`9.0%
`5.0%
`$154.10
`$16.0
`90,851
`
`1Q14A
`
`-14.4%
`29,528
`
`-11.7%
`27,170
`
`Jun-14E
`
`Apr-14May-14E
`
`Mar-14
`
`Feb-14
`
`Jan-14
`
`-2.2%
`$187.38
`$7.9
`42,347
`
`2Q14E
`
`-35.0%
`14,411
`
`-35.0%
`14,266
`
`-18.9%
`13,670
`
`$18.5
`
`-2.2%
`$187.38
`$8.5
`45,104
`
`1Q14A
`
`NM
`14,519
`
`NM
`13,632
`
`Jun-14E
`
`Apr-14May-14E
`
`Mar-14
`
`Feb-14
`
`8.0%
`5.4%
`$408.85
`$5.9
`14,498
`
`2Q14E
`
`-65.6%
`4,444
`
`9.0%Price Increase (4/15/2014):
`
`-67.1%
`4,926
`
`-72.3%
`5,128
`
`23.1%
`$393.13
`$10.0
`16,534
`$3.5
`1Q14A
`
`-86.1%
`5,386
`
`Inventory Stocking:
`
`-86.0%
`5,042
`
`Jun-14E
`
`Apr-14May-14E
`
`Mar-14
`
`Feb-14
`
`30.0%
`37.8%
`$435.39
`$13.2
`30,343
`
`2Q14E
`
`-15.0%
`9,089
`
`29.0%Price Increase (4/1/2014):
`25.9%
`$378.60
`$20.0
`40,940
`$4.5
`1Q14A
`
`Inventory Stocking:
`
`-15.0%
`10,303
`
`-19.4%
`10,951
`
`-13.9%
`12,159
`
`-16.4%
`12,686
`
`Jun-14E
`
`Apr-14May-14E
`
`Mar-14
`
`Feb-14
`
`Jan-14
`
`
`
`Source: Company reports, IMS database and UBS estimates
`
`Price Increase (1/7/2014):
`
`%
`7.5
`
`$150.60
`$61.0
`426,290
`
`2013
`
`%-7.4%
`34,153
`
`7.6
`
`426,290
`
`NM
`16,953
`
`2013
`
`$133.7
`
`NM
`$191.68
`$44.7
`206,811
`
`2013
`
`NM
`206,811
`
`Jan-14
`
`2013
`
`Price Increase (1/7/2014):
`
`67.3%
`$349.86
`$89.0
`223,232
`
`2013
`
`%-86.3%
`6,106
`
`9.0
`-5
`
`223,232
`
`Jan-14
`
`2013
`
`Price Increase (1/31/2014):
`
`28.0%
`$315.90
`$40.0
`171,130
`
`2013
`
`%-15.0%
`16,095
`
`171,130
`
`-9.0
`
`% Price Change
`Pricing Growth Rate
`
`Price/Rx
`Sales
`TRxs
`Acanya
`
`Growth Rate
`
`TRxs
`Acanya
`
`Total Retin-A Micro
`
`Pricing Growth Rate
`
`Price/Rx
`Sales
`TRxs
`Retin-A Micro (AG sales)
`
`Growth Rate
`
`TRxs
`Retin-A Micro (AG sales)
`
`% Price Change
`Pricing Growth Rate
`
`Price/Rx
`Sales
`TRxs
`Retin-A Micro
`
`Growth Rate
`
`TRxs
`Retin-A Micro
`
`% Price Change
`Pricing Growth Rate
`
`Price/Rx
`Sales
`TRxs
`Carac
`
`Growth Rate
`
`TRxs
`Carac
`
`Figure 3: Valeant Dermatology Products – 2013-2015E Monthly Continued
`
`2013
`
`
`
`U.S. Specialty Pharmaceuticals 15 June 2014
`
`(cid:4)(cid:5) 4
`
`
`
`Page 4 of 20
`
`

`
`
`
`%
`4.0
`
`$316.12
`$46.3
`146,409
`
`$304.00
`$17.2
`40,116
`
`$304.00
`$6.9
`22,792
`
`2015E
`
`2014E
`
`4Q14E
`
`NM265.0%
`146,409
`
`40,116
`
`NM
`8,675
`
`2015E
`
`2014E
`
`Dec-14E
`
`23.3%10.1%
`$130.12
`$118.17
`$11.1
`$17.8
`85,362
`150,971
`
`12.9%
`$121.35
`$3.8
`31,524
`
`2015E
`
`2014E
`
`4Q14E
`
`%-43.5%
`85,362
`
`150,971
`
`0.5
`-3
`
`-42.5%
`10,017
`
`2015E
`
`2014E
`
`Dec-14E
`
`%
`7.5
`
`$521.69
`$18.0
`34,478
`
`%
`3.6
`
`$485.29
`$25.3
`49,255
`
`7.3%
`$485.29
`$5.6
`11,516
`
`2015E
`
`2014E
`
`4Q14E
`
`%-30.0%
`34,478
`
`49,255
`
`1.7
`-3
`
`-30.0%
`3,499
`
`2015E
`
`2014E
`
`Dec-14E
`
`37.1%10.3%
`$175.91
`$159.55
`$30.6
`$29.5
`174,055
`204,771
`
`8.3%
`$163.31
`$7.8
`47,908
`
`2015E
`
`2014E
`
`4Q14E
`
`%-15.0%
`174,055
`
`204,771
`
`2.7
`-1
`
`-15.0%
`16,226
`
`2015E
`
`2014E
`
`Dec-14E
`
`NM
`7,828
`
`NM
`6,288
`
`$304.00
`$3.9
`12,870
`
`3Q14E
`
`NM
`4,962
`
`NM
`4,416
`
`NM
`3,492
`
`NM
`2,136
`
`Nov-14E
`
`Oct-14E
`
`Sep-14E
`
`Aug-14E
`
`Jul-14E
`
`-38.0%
`10,042
`
`-34.7%
`11,465
`
`10.0%
`10.9%
`$121.35
`$4.4
`36,215
`
`3Q14E
`
`-31.4%
`10,767
`
`Price Increase
`
`2Q14E
`
`-32.6%
`13,033
`
`-29.1%
`12,414
`
`Nov-14E
`
`Oct-14E
`
`Sep-14E
`
`Aug-14E
`
`Jul-14E
`
`-30.0%
`3,740
`
`-30.0%
`4,276
`
`3.0%
`$485.29
`$5.7
`11,690
`
`3Q14E
`
`-30.0%
`3,716
`
`2Q14E
`
`-30.0%
`4,086
`
`-30.0%
`3,889
`
`Nov-14E
`
`Oct-14E
`
`Sep-14E
`
`Aug-14E
`
`Jul-14E
`
`-15.0%
`15,785
`
`-15.0%
`15,897
`
`10.0%
`6.7%
`$163.31
`$9.5
`58,001
`
`3Q14E
`
`-15.0%
`18,766
`
`Price Increase:
`
`-15.0%
`22,751
`
`-15.0%
`16,484
`
`Nov-14E
`
`Oct-14E
`
`Sep-14E
`
`Aug-14E
`
`Jul-14E
`
`$304.00
`$6.4
`4,443
`$5.0
`2Q14E
`
`Inventory Stocking:
`
`$304.00
`$0.0
`11
`
`1Q14A
`
`NM
`1,122
`
`NM
`1,185
`
`NM
`11
`
`NM
`
`0
`
`NM
`
`0
`
`Jun-14E
`
`Apr-14May-14E
`
`Mar-14
`
`Feb-14
`
`7.4%
`$115.57
`$4.4
`38,185
`
`-28.8%
`11,998
`
`-26.0%
`12,838
`
`-32.2%
`13,349
`
`15.0%
`14.6%
`$115.57
`$5.2
`45,047
`
`1Q14A
`
`-24.4%
`14,957
`
`-25.3%
`13,477
`
`Jun-14E
`
`Apr-14May-14E
`
`Mar-14
`
`Feb-14
`
`Jan-14
`
`2.3%
`$485.29
`$6.0
`12,449
`
`-30.0%
`3,830
`
`-30.0%
`4,271
`
`-33.0%
`4,347
`
`15.0%
`2.2%
`$485.29
`$8.0
`13,600
`$1.4
`1Q14A
`
`-29.9%
`4,580
`
`Inventory Stocking:
`
`-34.5%
`4,274
`
`Jun-14E
`
`Apr-14May-14E
`
`Mar-14
`
`Feb-14
`
`1.7%
`$155.53
`$7.2
`46,140
`
`2Q14E
`
`-15.0%
`13,705
`
`-15.0%
`15,582
`
`-6.4%
`16,853
`
`9.0%
`1.7%
`$155.53
`$5.0
`52,722
`-$3.2
`1Q14A
`
`-0.6%
`18,372
`
`-7.8%
`16,207
`
`Jun-14E
`
`Apr-14May-14E
`
`Mar-14
`
`Feb-14
`
`Jan-14
`
`
`
`Source: Company reports, IMS database and UBS estimates
`
`Pricing Growth Rate
`
`2013
`
`Jan-14
`
`2013
`
`Price Increase (1/7/2014):
`
`%
`3.3
`
`$95.81
`$25.0
`217,102
`
`2013
`
`%-23.3%
`16,613
`
`6.1
`-1
`
`217,102
`
`Price Increase (1/7/2014):
`
`2013
`
`%
`6.2
`
`$468.62
`$34.0
`72,148
`
`2013
`
`%-39.7%
`4,746
`
`72,148
`
`4.5
`-3
`
`Jan-14
`
`2013
`
`Price Increase (1/7/2014):
`
`Inventory Destocking:
`
`%
`6.5
`-1
`
`$116.38
`$18.0
`234,581
`
`2013
`
`%-15.5%
`18,143
`
`2.9
`-4
`
`234,581
`
`Price/Rx
`Sales
`TRxs
`Luzu
`
`Growth Rate
`
`TRxs
`Luzu
`
`% Price Change
`Pricing Growth Rate
`
`Price/Rx
`Sales
`TRxs
`Atralin
`
`Growth Rate
`
`TRxs
`Atralin
`
`% Price Change
`Pricing Growth Rate
`
`Price/Rx
`Sales
`TRxs
`Zyclara Franchise
`
`Growth Rate
`
`TRxs
`Zyclara Franchise
`
`% Price Change
`Pricing Growth Rate
`
`Price/Rx
`Sales
`TRxs
`Benzaclin
`
`Growth Rate
`
`TRxs
`Benzaclin
`
`Figure 4: Valeant Dermatology Products – 2013-2015E Monthly Continued
`
`2013
`
`
`
`U.S. Specialty Pharmaceuticals 15 June 2014
`
`(cid:4)(cid:5) 5
`
`
`
`Page 5 of 20
`
`

`
`
`
`%
`3.0
`
`$328.28
`$16.6
`50,463
`
`$318.72
`$6.8
`21,349
`
`$318.72
`$3.1
`9,877
`
`2015E
`
`2014E
`
`4Q14E
`
`NM136.4%
`50,463
`
`21,349
`
`NM
`3,454
`
`2015E
`
`2014E
`
`Dec-14E
`
`%
`4.2
`
`$256.67
`$48.8
`190,291
`
`$246.30
`$12.2
`29,375
`
`$246.30
`$5.0
`20,494
`
`2015E
`
`2014E
`
`4Q14E
`
`NM547.8%
`190,291
`
`29,375
`
`NM
`7,830
`
`2015E
`
`2014E
`
`Dec-14E
`
`27.5%11.5%
`$434.82
`$389.88
`$14.9
`$13.3
`34,199
`34,199
`
`19.8%
`$406.78
`$3.6
`8,837
`
`2015E
`
`2014E
`
`4Q14E
`
`%
`0.0
`
`34,199
`
`%
`-8.2
`
`34,199
`
`0.0%
`3,196
`
`2015E
`
`2014E
`
`Dec-14E
`
`%
`9.0
`
`$6,030.94
`$16.4
`2,715
`
`17.7%
`$5,532.98
`$15.8
`2,858
`
`2015E
`
`2014E
`
`4Q14E
`
`%-5.0%
`2,715
`
`2,858
`
`3.2
`-1
`
`-20.0%
`320
`
`2015E
`
`2014E
`
`NM
`3,290
`
`NM
`3,133
`
`$318.72
`$2.4
`7,389
`
`3Q14E
`
`NM
`2,848
`
`NM
`2,477
`
`NM
`2,064
`
`Nov-14E
`
`Oct-14E
`
`Sep-14E
`
`Aug-14E
`
`Jul-14E
`
`NM
`6,618
`
`NM
`6,047
`
`$246.30
`$7.2
`8,881
`$5.0
`3Q14E
`
`NM
`4,256
`
`Inventory Stocking:
`
`NM
`3,067
`
`NM
`1,559
`
`Nov-14E
`
`Oct-14E
`
`Sep-14E
`
`Aug-14E
`
`Jul-14E
`
`0.0%
`2,873
`
`0.0%
`2,768
`
`9.0%
`36.7%
`$406.78
`$3.5
`8,565
`
`3Q14E
`
`0.0%
`2,706
`
`Price Increase
`
`0.0%
`2,842
`
`0.0%
`3,017
`
`Nov-14E
`
`Oct-14E
`
`Sep-14E
`
`Aug-14E
`
`Jul-14E
`
`17.2%
`$5,668.76
`$6.8
`1,204
`
`-20.0%
`360
`
`-20.0%
`524
`
`19.0%
`$5,668.76
`$2.3
`405
`
`3Q14E
`
`-20.0%
`166
`
`-20.0%
`126
`
`-20.0%
`113
`
`Dec-14E
`
`Nov-14E
`
`Oct-14E
`
`Sep-14E
`
`Aug-14E
`
`Jul-14E
`
`$318.72
`$1.1
`3,478
`
`2Q14E
`
`NM
`1,588
`
`NM
`1,134
`
`NM
`756
`
`$318.72
`$0.2
`606
`
`1Q14A
`
`NM
`462
`
`NM
`116
`
`Jun-14E
`
`Apr-14May-14E
`
`Mar-14
`
`2Q14E
`
`NM
`
`0
`
`NM
`
`0
`
`NM
`
`0
`
`1Q14A
`
`NM
`
`0
`
`NM
`
`0
`
`Jun-14E
`
`Apr-14May-14E
`
`Mar-14
`
`30.0%
`9.0%
`32.8%
`$389.26
`$3.3
`8,577
`
`2Q14E
`
`0.0%
`2,871
`
`Price Increase (5/30/2014)
`9.0%Price Increase (4/15/2014)
`
`0.0%
`3,273
`
`-30.3%
`2,433
`
`21.0%
`$354.76
`$2.9
`8,220
`
`1Q14A
`
`-27.3%
`2,669
`
`Jun-14E
`
`Apr-14May-14E
`
`Mar-14
`
`22.4%
`$5,668.76
`$2.4
`420
`
`2Q14E
`
`-20.0%
`130
`
`-20.0%
`146
`
`-28.1%
`143
`
`15.0%
`17.4%
`$5,200.70
`$4.3
`829
`
`1Q14A
`
`-14.0%
`197
`
`Jun-14E
`
`Apr-14May-14E
`
`Mar-14
`
`Feb-14
`
`
`
`Source: Company reports, IMS database and UBS estimates
`
`Pricing Growth Rate
`
`2013
`
`NM
`28
`
`Feb-14
`
`Jan-14
`
`2013
`
`2013
`
`NM
`
`0
`
`Feb-14
`
`Jan-14
`
`2013
`
`Price Increase (1/7/2014):
`
`17.2%
`$305.78
`$15.0
`37,271
`
`2013
`
`-19.4%
`2,641
`
`38.1%-11.6%
`37,271
`2,910
`
`Feb-14
`
`Jan-14
`
`2013
`
`Price Increase (1/7/2014):
`
`%
`8.0
`
`$4,700.67
`$15.5
`3,294
`
`2013
`
`-27.6%
`157
`
`18.4%62.7%
`475
`
`3,294
`
`Jan-14
`
`2013
`
`Price/Rx
`Sales
`TRxs
`Bensal HP
`
`Growth Rate
`
`TRxs
`Bensal HP
`
`% Price Change
`Pricing Growth Rate
`
`Price/Rx
`Sales
`TRxs
`Jublia
`
`Growth Rate
`
`TRxs
`Jublia
`
`% Price Change
`Pricing Growth Rate
`
`Price/Rx
`Sales
`TRxs
`Xerese
`
`Growth Rate
`
`TRxs
`Xerese
`
`% Price Change
`Pricing Growth Rate
`
`Price/Rx
`Sales
`TRxs
`Efudex
`
`Growth Rate
`
`TRxs
`Efudex
`
`Figure 5: Valeant Dermatology Products – 2013-2015E Monthly Continued
`
`
`
`U.S. Specialty Pharmaceuticals 15 June 2014
`
`(cid:4)(cid:5) 6
`
`
`
`Page 6 of 20
`
`

`
`
`
`%
`7.9
`
`$168.99
`$2.3
`13,382
`
`12.5%
`$156.58
`$4.2
`26,764
`
`7.5%
`$158.57
`$0.7
`4,623
`
`2015E
`
`2014E
`
`4Q14E
`
`%-50.0%
`13,382
`
`26,764
`
`6.3
`-4
`
`-50.0%
`1,412
`
`-50.0%
`1,288
`
`-50.0%
`1,923
`
`15.6%
`$158.57
`$1.1
`6,680
`
`3Q14E
`
`-50.0%
`2,034
`
`-50.0%
`2,284
`
`-50.0%
`2,363
`
`2Q14E
`
`-50.0%
`2,331
`
`2015E
`
`2014E
`
`Dec-14E
`
`Nov-14E
`
`Oct-14E
`
`Sep-14E
`
`Aug-14E
`
`Jul-14E
`
`%
`7.2
`
`$178.74
`$6.5
`36,206
`
`%
`4.0
`
`$166.72
`$6.4
`38,112
`
`4.5%
`$167.44
`$1.6
`9,331
`
`2015E
`
`2014E
`
`4Q14E
`
`%-5.0%
`36,206
`
`38,112
`
`7.9
`-1
`
`-15.0%
`2,878
`
`-15.0%
`3,061
`
`-15.0%
`3,392
`
`4.5%
`$167.44
`$1.6
`9,309
`
`3Q14E
`
`-15.0%
`3,090
`
`2Q14E
`
`-15.0%
`3,093
`
`-15.0%
`3,126
`
`2015E
`
`2014E
`
`Dec-14E
`
`Nov-14E
`
`Oct-14E
`
`Sep-14E
`
`Aug-14E
`
`Jul-14E
`
`
`
`
`
`Source: Company reports, IMS database and UBS estimates
`
`15.6%
`$158.57
`$1.3
`8,231
`
`-20.0%
`3,896
`
`-55.2%
`2,004
`
`15.0%
`10.2%
`$151.20
`$1.1
`7,230
`
`1Q14A
`
`-42.8%
`2,525
`
`Price Increase (2/28/2014):
`
`13.9%
`$139.13
`$6.9
`49,866
`
`2013
`
`-42.7%
`2,350
`
`%-50.3%
`2,355
`
`49,866
`
`5.9
`-3
`
`Jun-14E
`
`Apr-14May-14E
`
`Mar-14
`
`Feb-14
`
`Jan-14
`
`2013
`
`4.5%
`$167.44
`$1.7
`9,930
`
`-15.0%
`3,057
`
`-15.0%
`3,505
`
`-16.3%
`3,368
`
`9.0%
`2.7%
`$164.56
`$1.6
`9,541
`
`1Q14A
`
`-23.0%
`3,159
`
`Price Increase (2/6/2014)
`
`%
`9.1
`
`$160.23
`$7.4
`46,432
`
`2013
`
`-28.4%
`2,902
`
`%-24.3%
`3,480
`
`46,432
`
`2.5
`-2
`
`% Price Change
`Pricing Growth Rate
`
`Price/Rx
`Sales
`TRxs
`Ertaczo
`
`Growth Rate
`
`TRxs
`Ertaczo
`
`% Price Change
`Pricing Growth Rate
`
`Price/Rx
`Sales
`TRxs
`Renova
`
`Growth Rate
`
`TRxs
`Renova
`
`Jun-14E
`
`Apr-14May-14E
`
`Mar-14
`
`Feb-14
`
`Jan-14
`
`2013
`
`Figure 6: Valeant Dermatology Products – 2013-2015E Monthly Continued
`
`
`
`U.S. Specialty Pharmaceuticals 15 June 2014
`
`(cid:4)(cid:5) 7
`
`
`
`Page 7 of 20
`
`

`
`%-18.2%
`$137.5
`
`$168.2
`
`-5.5
`
`-44.5%
`$33.3
`
`-17.9%
`$35.3
`
`2015E
`
`2014E
`
`Dec-14E
`
`Nov-14E
`
`Oct-14E
`
`Sep-14E
`
`Aug-14E
`
`Jul-14E
`
`18.6%10.6%
`$376.51
`$340.29
`$49.4
`$63.5
`131,207
`142,616
`
`15.6%
`$355.10
`$12.0
`33,769
`
`2015E
`
`2014E
`
`4Q14E
`
`%-8.0%
`131,207
`
`7.9
`-1
`
`142,616
`
`-15.0%
`11,259
`
`-15.0%
`10,716
`
`-15.0%
`11,794
`
`15.0%
`20.7%
`$355.10
`$12.7
`35,829
`
`3Q14E
`
`-15.0%
`11,306
`
`Price Increase:
`
`2Q14E
`
`-15.0%
`12,003
`
`-15.0%
`12,521
`
`2015E
`
`2014E
`
`Dec-14E
`
`Nov-14E
`
`Oct-14E
`
`Sep-14E
`
`Aug-14E
`
`Jul-14E
`
`37.3%10.7%
`$502.64
`$454.20
`$88.1
`$104.7
`175,369
`190,618
`
`15.6%
`$474.10
`$21.3
`44,956
`
`2015E
`
`2014E
`
`4Q14E
`
`%-8.0%
`175,369
`
`190,618
`
`7.7
`-1
`
`-15.0%
`15,056
`
`-15.0%
`14,280
`
`-15.0%
`15,620
`
`15.0%
`46.7%
`$474.10
`$22.6
`47,592
`
`3Q14E
`
`-15.0%
`15,000
`
`Price Increase:
`
`2Q14E
`
`-15.0%
`15,937
`
`-15.0%
`16,655
`
`2015E
`
`2014E
`
`Dec-14E
`
`Nov-14E
`
`Oct-14E
`
`Sep-14E
`
`Aug-14E
`
`Jul-14E
`
`18.9%10.4%
`$6,822.86
`$234.0
`34,299
`
`$6,180.64
`$241.5
`40,853
`
`14.2%
`$6,376.50
`$72.5
`11,373
`
`2015E
`
`2014E
`
`28.0%-16.0%
`34,299
`40,853
`
`4Q14E
`
`25.0%
`3,981
`
`25.0%
`3,553
`
`25.0%
`3,839
`
`14.0%
`14.2%
`$6,376.50
`$65.7
`10,299
`
`3Q14E
`
`25.0%
`3,375
`
`Price Increase
`
`2Q14E
`
`25.0%
`3,438
`
`25.0%
`3,486
`
`2015E
`
`2014E
`
`Dec-14E
`
`Nov-14E
`
`Oct-14E
`
`Sep-14E
`
`Aug-14E
`
`Jul-14E
`
`-13.5%
`$34.6
`
`85.9%
`$65.0
`
`Source: Company reports, IMS database and UBS estimates
`
`14.8%
`$178.0
`
`Sales Growth Rate
`
`Sales
`Wellbutrin XL Total
`
`Jun-14E
`
`Apr-14May-14E
`
`Mar-14
`
`Feb-14
`
`Jan-14
`
`2013
`
`
`
`
`
`(cid:4)(cid:5) 8
`
`8.0%
`20.1%
`$330.32
`$12.5
`37,720
`
`-15.0%
`12,208
`
`-15.0%
`13,229
`
`-19.2%
`12,283
`
`17.0%
`$321.74
`$26.4
`35,298
`$15.0
`1Q14A
`
`-21.4%
`12,050
`
`Inventory Stocking:
`
`19.8%
`$286.98
`$75.6
`173,804
`
`2013
`
`-22.7%
`11,143
`
`%-29.0%
`12,105
`
`1.0
`-2
`
`173,804
`
`9.5%Price Increase (5/1/14)
`
`Price Increase (1/7/2014):
`
`8.0%
`47.0%
`$441.02
`$22.1
`50,157
`
`-15.0%
`16,347
`
`-15.0%
`17,635
`
`-20.9%
`16,175
`
`43.2%
`$429.57
`$38.7
`47,914
`$18.1
`1Q14A
`
`-21.3%
`16,446
`
`Inventory Stocking:
`
`11.0%
`$330.76
`$102.4
`231,525
`
`2013
`
`-22.3%
`15,044
`
`%-25.3%
`16,424
`
`8.2
`-1
`
`231,525
`
`Jun-14E
`
`Apr-14May-14E
`
`Mar-14
`
`Feb-14
`
`Jan-14
`
`2013
`
`9.5%Price Increase (5/1/14)
`
`Price Increase (1/7/2014):
`
`Jun-14E
`
`Apr-14May-14E
`
`Mar-14
`
`Feb-14
`
`Jan-14
`
`2013
`
`6.1%
`$5,959.35
`$58.3
`9,785
`
`3.2%
`$5,959.35
`$45.0
`9,397
`-$11.0
`1Q14A
`
`Inventory Destocking:
`
`$5,200.18
`$166.0
`31,922
`
`2013
`
`25.0%
`3,096
`
`25.0%
`3,316
`
`33.4%
`3,372
`
`30.9%
`3,250
`
`37.4%
`2,944
`
`40.7%39.1%
`31,922
`3,203
`
`Jun-14E
`
`Apr-14May-14E
`
`Mar-14
`
`Feb-14
`
`Jan-14
`
`2013
`
`% Price Change
`Pricing Growth Rate
`
`Price/Rx
`Sales
`TRxs
`Wellbutrin XL (150MG)
`
`Growth Rate
`
`TRxs
`Wellbutrin XL (150MG)
`
`% Price Change
`Pricing Growth Rate
`
`Price/Rx
`Sales
`TRxs
`Wellbutrin XL (300MG)
`
`Growth Rate
`
`TRxs
`Wellbutrin XL (300MG)
`
`% Price Change
`Pricing Growth Rate
`
`Price/Rx
`Sales
`TRxs
`Xenazine
`
`Growth Rate
`
`TRxs
`Xenazine
`
`Figure 7: Valeant Specialty Neuro/Other Products – 2013-2015E Monthly
`
`
`
`U.S. Specialty Pharmaceuticals 15 June 2014
`
`
`
`Page 8 of 20
`
`

`
`%
`5.8
`
`$306.22
`$38.8
`126,554
`
`59.7%
`$289.35
`$41.8
`137,559
`
`6.0%
`57.0%
`$297.37
`$9.9
`33,259
`
`2015E
`
`2014E
`
`4Q14E
`
`Price Increase
`
`%-8.0%
`126,554
`
`1.0
`-1
`
`137,559
`
`-10.0%
`11,093
`
`-10.0%
`10,401
`
`-10.0%
`11,765
`
`57.0%
`$288.71
`$9.9
`34,255
`
`3Q14E
`
`-10.0%
`11,068
`
`-10.0%
`11,832
`
`-10.0%
`11,354
`
`2015E
`
`2014E
`
`Dec-14E
`
`Nov-14E
`
`Oct-14E
`
`Sep-14E
`
`Aug-14E
`
`Jul-14E
`
`%
`9.2
`
`$113.4
`
`88.9%
`$103.9
`
`8.0%
`$27.0
`
`74.2%
`$26.1
`
`2015E
`
`2014E
`
`Dec-14E
`
`Nov-14E
`
`Oct-14E
`
`Sep-14E
`
`Aug-14E
`
`Jul-14E
`
`%
`8.3
`
`79.7%
`
`3.6%
`
`$16,658.96$16,539.09$17,908.39
`$82.3
`4,598
`
`$72.4
`4,379
`
`$19.0
`1,142
`
`2015E
`
`2014E
`
`4Q14E
`
`%
`5.0
`
`4,598
`
`%
`4.7
`
`4,379
`
`5.0%
`383
`
`5.0%
`362
`
`5.0%
`397
`
`64.4%
`$16,658.96
`$18.1
`1,088
`
`3Q14E
`
`5.0%
`360
`
`5.0%
`359
`
`5.0%
`369
`
`2015E
`
`2014E
`
`Dec-14E
`
`Nov-14E
`
`Oct-14E
`
`Sep-14E
`
`Aug-14E
`
`Jul-14E
`
`%
`4.0
`
`$3,815.49
`$31.1
`8,142
`
`106.1%
`$3,667.90
`$31.4
`8,571
`
`11.8%
`$3,704.36
`$8.0
`2,151
`
`2015E
`
`2014E
`
`%-5.0%
`8,142
`
`8,571
`
`-7.5
`
`4Q14E
`
`-5.0%
`713
`
`-5.0%
`703
`
`-5.0%
`734
`
`87.3%
`$3,704.36
`$8.0
`2,161
`
`3Q14E
`
`-5.0%
`756
`
`-5.0%
`656
`
`-5.0%
`750
`
`2015E
`
`2014E
`
`Dec-14E
`
`Nov-14E
`
`Oct-14E
`
`Sep-14E
`
`Aug-14E
`
`Jul-14E
`
`
`
`
`
`(cid:4)(cid:5) 9
`
`Source: Company reports, IMS database and UBS estimates
`
`6.0%
`60.1%
`$288.71
`$10.0
`34,715
`
`2Q14E
`
`-10.0%
`10,985
`
`21.4%Price Increase (5/1/14)
`64.7%
`$283.05
`$12.0
`35,330
`$2.0
`1Q14A
`
`Price Incr (2/28/2014):
`
`Inventory Stocking:
`
`11.9%
`$181.15
`$30.0
`154,571
`
`2013
`
`-10.0%
`11,901
`
`-11.6%
`11,830
`
`-16.0%
`11,582
`
`-12.4%
`11,177
`
`%-11.4%
`12,571
`
`0.0
`-1
`
`154,571
`
`% Price Change
`Pricing Growth Rate
`
`Price/Rx
`Sales
`TRxs
`Mephyton
`
`Growth Rate
`
`TRxs
`Mephyton
`
`Jun-14E
`
`Apr-14May-14E
`
`Mar-14
`
`Feb-14
`
`Jan-14
`
`2013
`
`157.4%
`$25.7
`
`400.0%
`$25.0
`
`$55.0
`
`Sales Growth Rate
`
`Sales
`Syprine/Cuprimine Total
`
`Jun-14E
`
`Apr-14May-14E
`
`Mar-14
`
`Feb-14
`
`Jan-14
`
`2013
`
`6.0%
`140.6%
`$16,658.96
`$17.8
`1,067
`
`2Q14E
`
`5.0%
`342
`
`Price Increase
`
`5.0%
`334
`
`6.5%
`391
`
`384.3%
`$16,173.75
`$17.5
`1,082
`
`1Q14A
`
`1.3%
`377
`
`8.6%
`341
`
`0.6%
`364
`
`$9,203.92
`$38.5
`4,183
`
`2013
`
`%
`8.1
`-9
`
`4,183
`
`Jun-14E
`
`Apr-14May-14E
`
`Mar-14
`
`Feb-14
`
`Jan-14
`
`2013
`
`25.0%
`178.0%
`$3,704.36
`$8.0
`2,150
`
`2Q14E
`
`-5.0%
`648
`
`Price Increase (5/30/14)
`
`-5.0%
`766
`
`-3.5%
`736
`
`488.0%
`$3,556.19
`$7.5
`2,109
`
`1Q14A
`
`-13.9%
`704
`
`-6.3%
`695
`
`$1,779.94
`$16.5
`9,270
`
`2013
`
`%-22.8%
`710
`
`9,270
`
`6.7
`-9
`
`% Price Change
`Pricing Growth Rate
`
`Price/Rx
`Sales
`TRxs
`Syprine
`
`Growth Rate
`
`TRxs
`Syprine
`
`% Price Change
`Pricing Growth Rate
`
`Price/Rx
`Sales
`TRxs
`Cuprimine
`
`Growth Rate
`
`TRxs
`Cuprimine
`
`Jun-14E
`
`Apr-14May-14E
`
`Mar-14
`
`Feb-14
`
`Jan-14
`
`2013
`
`Figure 8: Valeant Specialty Neuro/Other Products – 2013-2015E Monthly Continued
`
`
`
`U.S. Specialty Pharmaceuticals 15 June 2014
`
`
`
`Page 9 of 20
`
`

`
`%
`6.3
`
`$298.03
`$20.4
`68,450
`
`13.2%
`$280.33
`$19.8
`70,567
`
`2015E
`
`2014E
`
`%-3.0%
`68,450
`
`70,567
`
`-2.1
`
`2015E
`
`2014E
`
`%
`6.0
`
`$357.81
`$20.7
`57,958
`
`19.6%
`$337.54
`$24.5
`72,448
`
`9.5%
`$282.17
`$5.0
`17,778
`
`4Q14E
`
`-3.0%
`6,160
`
`6.0%
`15.7%
`$347.52
`$6.0
`17,306
`
`2015E
`
`2014E
`
`4Q14E
`
`%-20.0%
`57,958
`
`72,448
`
`0.6
`-2
`
`-20.0%
`5,909
`
`2015E
`
`2014E
`
`Dec-14E
`
`%
`5.5
`
`$567.78
`$31.4
`55,324
`
`17.8%
`$538.16
`$29.8
`55,324
`
`11.6%
`$550.95
`$7.8
`14,175
`
`2015E
`
`2014E
`
`4Q14E
`
`%
`0.0
`
`55,324
`
`%
`-2.3
`
`55,324
`
`0.0%
`4,933
`
`2015E
`
`2014E
`
`%
`6.4
`
`$711.49
`$19.6
`27,592
`
`26.5%
`$668.92
`$31.4
`39,418
`
`6.0%
`39.0%
`$691.86
`$5.8
`8,437
`
`2015E
`
`2014E
`
`4Q14E
`
`%-30.0%
`27,592
`
`39,418
`
`2.7
`-3
`
`-30.0%
`2,822
`
`2015E
`
`2014E
`
`-3.0%
`5,667
`
`-3.0%
`5,952
`
`15.5%
`$282.17
`$4.9
`17,428
`
`3Q14E
`
`-3.0%
`5,623
`
`-3.0%
`5,758
`
`-3.0%
`6,047
`
`Dec-14E
`
`Nov-14E
`
`Oct-14E
`
`Sep-14E
`
`Aug-14E
`
`Jul-14E
`
`Price Increase
`
`-20.0%
`5,354
`
`-20.0%
`6,043
`
`16.8%
`$337.40
`$6.0
`17,742
`
`3Q14E
`
`-20.0%
`5,657
`
`-20.0%
`5,775
`
`-20.0%
`6,310
`
`Nov-14E
`
`Oct-14E
`
`Sep-14E
`
`Aug-14E
`
`Jul-14E
`
`0.0%
`4,561
`
`0.0%
`4,681
`
`8.0%
`21.2%
`$550.95
`$7.8
`14,160
`
`3Q14E
`
`0.0%
`4,434
`
`Price Increase
`
`0.0%
`4,855
`
`0.0%
`4,871
`
`Dec-14E
`
`Nov-14E
`
`Oct-14E
`
`Sep-14E
`
`Aug-14E
`
`Jul-14E
`
`Price Increase
`
`-30.0%
`2,626
`
`-30.0%
`2,990
`
`27.9%
`$671.71
`$6.3
`9,325
`
`3Q14E
`
`-30.0%
`2,901
`
`-30.0%
`3,107
`
`-30.0%
`3,317
`
`Dec-14E
`
`Nov-14E
`
`Oct-14E
`
`Sep-14E
`
`Aug-14E
`
`Jul-14E
`
`8.0%
`15.5%
`$282.17
`$5.0
`17,688
`
`2Q14E
`
`-3.0%
`5,712
`
`18.3%Price Increase (5/1/14)
`12.5%
`$274.84
`$4.9
`17,672
`
`-3.0%
`6,042
`
`-4.2%
`5,934
`
`1Q14A
`
`0.8%
`5,952
`
`3.8%
`5,617
`
`Jun-14E
`
`Apr-14May-14E
`
`Mar-14
`
`Feb-14
`
`8.0%
`20.8%
`$337.40
`$6.3
`18,584
`
`2Q14E
`
`-20.0%
`5,936
`
`20.0%Price Increase (5/1/14)
`25.2%
`$328.64
`$6.2
`18,816
`
`-20.0%
`6,442
`
`-20.4%
`6,206
`
`1Q14A
`
`-20.4%
`6,381
`
`-21.6%
`5,940
`
`Jun-14E
`
`Apr-14May-14E
`
`Mar-14
`
`Feb-14
`
`Jan-14
`
`6.0%
`20.6%
`$529.76
`$7.4
`13,895
`
`2Q14E
`
`0.0%
`4,597
`
`21.6%Price Increase (5/1/14)
`18.2%
`$519.38
`$6.8
`13,094
`
`0.0%
`4,857
`
`-8.7%
`4,441
`
`1Q14A
`
`-5.5%
`4,444
`
`-8.3%
`4,065
`
`Jun-14E
`
`Apr-14May-14E
`
`Mar-14
`
`Feb-14
`
`12.0%
`29.4%
`$671.71
`$7.3
`10,818
`
`2Q14E
`
`-30.0%
`3,460
`
`14.0%Price Increase (5/1/14)
`15.0%
`$645.88
`$12.0
`10,838
`$5.0
`1Q14A
`
`Inventory Stocking:
`
`-30.0%
`3,641
`
`-29.5%
`3,717
`
`-34.9%
`3,676
`
`-40.7%
`3,292
`
`Jun-14E
`
`Apr-14May-14E
`
`Mar-14
`
`Feb-14
`
`Jan-14
`
`Source: Company reports, IMS database and UBS estimates
`
`Price Increase (2/28/2014):
`
`% Price Change
`Pricing Growth Rate
`
`
`
`$247.73
`$17.8
`72,044
`
`2013
`
`%-0.3%
`6,103
`
`72,044
`
`-1.1
`
`Jan-14
`
`2013
`
`Price Increase (1/31/2014):
`
`%
`5.7
`
`$282.18
`$28.3
`91,237
`
`2013
`
`%-24.2%
`6,495
`
`91,237
`
`7.4
`-1
`
`2013
`
`Price Increase (2/28/2014):
`
`12.6%
`$456.77
`$25.9
`56,611
`
`2013
`
`%-5.0%
`4,585
`
`56,611
`
`4.4
`
`Jan-14
`
`2013
`
`Price Increase (2/28/2014):
`
`58.2%
`$528.95
`$31.0
`58,597
`
`2013
`
`%-41.5%
`3,870
`
`58,597
`
`2.7
`-5
`
`Price/Rx
`Sales
`TRxs
`Mestinon
`
`Growth Rate
`
`TRxs
`Mestinon
`
`% Price Change
`Pricing Growth Rate
`
`Price/Rx
`Sales
`TRxs
`Ativan
`
`Growth Rate
`
`TRxs
`Ativan
`
`% Price Change
`Pricing Growth Rate
`
`Price/Rx
`Sales
`TRxs
`Edecrin
`
`Growth Rate
`
`TRxs
`Edecrin
`
`% Price Change
`Pricing Growth Rate
`
`Price/Rx
`Sales
`TRxs
`Cardizem CD
`
`Growth Rate
`
`TRxs
`Cardizem CD
`
`Fgure 9: Vaeant Specaty Neuro/Other Products – 2013-2015E Monthy Contnued
`
`2013
`
`
`
`U.S. Spec a ty Pharmaceut ca s 15 June 2014
`
`(cid:4)(cid:5) 10
`
`
`
`Page 10 of 20
`
`

`
`53.2%12.2%
`$550.77
`$490.95
`$1.5
`$7.2
`2,639
`14,665
`
`6.0%
`58.6%
`$540.33
`$0.8
`1,526
`
`2015E
`
`2014E
`
`4Q14E
`
`%-82.0%
`2,639
`
`14,665
`
`3.5
`-6
`
`-85.0%
`523
`
`2015E
`
`2014E
`
`Dec-14E
`
`%
`3.0
`
`$143.17
`$7.8
`54,478
`
`%
`0.0
`
`$139.00
`$8.0
`57,346
`
`2015E
`
`2014E
`
`%-5.0%
`54,478
`
`57,346
`
`-7.6
`
`0.0%
`$139.00
`$1.9
`13,472
`
`4Q14E
`
`-5.0%
`4,134
`
`2015E
`
`2014E
`
`Dec-14E
`
`%
`6.5
`
`$1,297.49
`$11.2
`8,651
`
`13.4%
`$1,218.09
`$11.7
`9,613
`
`2015E
`
`2014E
`
`4Q14E
`
`%-10.0%
`8,651
`
`9,613
`
`9.2
`-3
`
`-20.0%
`771
`
`2015E
`
`2014E
`
`Dec-14E
`
`%
`5.9
`
`$749.17
`$12.1
`16,207
`
`%
`7.3
`
`$707.62
`$13.5
`19,067
`
`10.7%
`$727.54
`$3.3
`4,496
`
`2015E
`
`2014E
`
`4Q14E
`
`%-15.0%
`16,207
`
`19,067
`
`2.1
`-3
`
`-20.0%
`1,593
`
`2015E
`
`2014E
`
`Price Increase:
`
`-85.0%
`490
`
`-85.0%
`513
`
`62.5%
`$524.59
`$0.8
`1,513
`
`3Q14E
`
`-85.0%
`476
`
`-85.0%
`513
`
`-85.0%
`524
`
`Nov-14E
`
`Oct-14E
`
`Sep-14E
`
`Aug-14E
`
`Jul-14E
`
`-5.0%
`4,402
`
`-5.0%
`4,935
`
`0.0%
`$139.00
`$2.3
`16,484
`
`3Q14E
`
`-5.0%
`5,387
`
`-5.0%
`6,408
`
`-5.0%
`4,689
`
`-5.0%
`4,342
`
`Nov-14E
`
`Oct-14E
`
`Sep-14E
`
`Aug-14E
`
`Jul-14E
`
`6.0%
`12.4%
`$1,260.09
`$2.9
`2,331
`
`Price Increase
`
`-20.0%
`776
`
`-20.0%
`784
`
`13.0%
`$1,223.39
`$2.9
`2,401
`
`3Q14E
`
`-20.0%
`787
`
`-20.0%
`828
`
`-20.0%
`786
`
`Nov-14E
`
`Oct-14E
`
`Sep-14E
`
`Aug-14E
`
`Jul-14E
`
`-20.0%
`1,435
`
`-20.0%
`1,468
`
`8.0%
`16.3%
`$727.54
`$3.3
`4,490
`
`3Q14E
`
`-20.0%
`1,428
`
`Price Increase
`
`-20.0%
`1,518
`
`-20.0%
`1,544
`
`Dec-14E
`
`Nov-14E
`
`Oct-14E
`
`Sep-14E
`
`Aug-14E
`
`Jul-14E
`
`69.8%
`$524.59
`$1.4
`2,750
`
`2Q14E
`
`-85.0%
`484
`
`-75.0%
`866
`
`-58.0%
`1,400
`
`100.0%
`50.9%
`$466.30
`$4.1
`8,876
`
`1Q14A
`
`-20.8%
`2,663
`
`-5.1%
`2,921
`
`Jun-14E
`
`Apr-14May-14E
`
`Mar-14
`
`Feb-14
`
`Jan-14
`
`0.0%
`$139.00
`$1.9
`13,789
`
`2Q14E
`
`-5.0%
`4,810
`
`-13.0%
`4,637
`
`0.0%
`$139.00
`$1.9
`13,600
`
`1Q14A
`
`-8.9%
`4,670
`
`-15.2%
`4,302
`
`Jun-14E
`
`Apr-14May-14E
`
`Mar-14
`
`Feb-14
`
`14.0%
`13.0%
`$1,223.39
`$2.9
`2,378
`
`11.8%Price Increase (5/1/14)
`12.0%
`$1,168.84
`$2.9
`2,503
`
`2Q14E
`
`-20.0%
`750
`
`-20.0%
`832
`
`-55.7%
`796
`
`1Q14A
`
`-56.6%
`837
`
`-61.3%
`731
`
`Jun-14E
`
`Apr-14May-14E
`
`Mar-14
`
`Feb-14
`
`Jan-14
`
`9.0%
`13.1%
`$699.56
`$3.7
`5,279
`
`2Q14E
`
`-20.0%
`1,496
`
`9.1%Price Increase (5/1/14)
`9.8%
`$679.19
`$3.3
`4,802
`
`-20.0%
`1,810
`
`-34.5%
`1,973
`
`1Q14A
`
`-45.7%
`1,755
`
`-50.8%
`1,509
`
`Jun-14E
`
`Apr-14May-14E
`
`Mar-14
`
`Feb-14
`
`Jan-14
`
`
`
`Source: Company reports, IMS database and UBS estimates
`
`Price Increase: (1/31/2014)
`
`%
`9.5
`
`$320.48
`$12.9
`40,131
`
`2013
`
`%-3.2%
`3,292
`
`40,131
`
`2.3
`
`2013
`
`10.7%
`$139.00
`$8.5
`62,040
`
`2013
`
`%-13.4%
`4,628
`
`62,040
`
`6.8
`-1
`
`Jan-14
`
`2013
`
`Price Increase (2/28/2014):
`
`20.9%
`$1,074.30
`$17.0
`15,823
`
`2013
`
`%-59.6%
`935
`
`15,823
`
`3.4
`-4
`
`2013
`
`Price Increase (2/28/2014):
`
`%
`1.8
`
`$659.62
`$18.5
`28,081
`
`2013
`
`%-54.8%
`1,538
`
`28,081
`
`6.2
`-3
`
`% Price Change
`Pricing Growth Rate
`
`Price/Rx
`Sales
`TRxs
`Lodosyn
`
`Growth Rate
`
`TRxs
`Lodosyn
`
`% Price Change
`Pricing Growth Rate
`
`Price/Rx
`Sales
`TRxs
`Diastat Franchise
`
`Growth Rate
`
`TRxs
`Diastat Franchise
`
`% Price Change
`Pricing Growth Rate
`
`Price/Rx
`Sales
`TRxs
`Librax
`
`Growth Rate
`
`TRxs
`Librax
`
`% Price Change
`Pricing Growth Rate
`
`Price/Rx
`Sales
`TRxs
`Migranal
`
`Growth Rate
`
`TRxs
`Migranal
`
`Figure 10: Valeant Specialty Neuro/Other Products – 2013-2015E Monthly Continued
`
`2013
`
`
`
`U.S. Specialty Pharmaceuticals 15 June 2014
`
`(cid:4)(cid:5) 11
`
`
`
`Page 11 of 20
`
`

`
`%
`4.0
`
`$154.54
`$5.4
`34,820
`
`%
`1.9
`
`$148.60
`$5.7
`38,689
`
`4.0%
`$151.63
`$1.4
`8,997
`
`2015E
`
`2014E
`
`4Q14E
`
`%-10.0%
`34,820
`
`38,689
`
`3.8
`-2
`
`-20.0%
`3,017
`
`-20.0%
`2,830
`
`-20.0%
`3,150
`
`8.0%
`4.0%
`$151.63
`$1.5
`9,584
`
`3Q14E
`
`-20.0%
`3,051
`
`Price Increase
`
`-20.0%
`3,194
`
`-20.0%
`3,338
`
`2015E
`
`2014E
`
`Dec-14E
`
`Nov-14E
`
`Oct-14E
`
`Sep-14E
`
`Aug-14E
`
`Jul-14E
`
`%
`6.4
`
`$324.95
`$6.4
`19,570
`
`17.5%
`$305.49
`$6.6
`21,744
`
`6.0%
`13.2%
`$315.96
`$1.5
`4,829
`
`2015E
`
`2014E
`
`4Q14E
`
`Price Increase
`
`%-10.0%
`19,570
`
`21,744
`
`9.8
`-2
`
`-30.0%
`1,633
`
`-30.0%
`1,540
`
`-30.0%
`1,656
`
`14.1%
`$306.76
`$1.6
`5,058
`
`3Q14E
`
`-30.0%
`1,545
`
`-30.0%
`1,649
`
`-30.0%
`1,864
`
`2015E
`
`2014E
`
`Dec-14E
`
`Nov-14E
`
`Oct-14E
`
`Sep-14E
`
`Aug-14E
`
`Jul-14E
`
`%
`6.3
`
`$594.34
`$7.3
`12,235
`
`18.0%
`$558.92
`$7.2
`12,879
`
`2015E
`
`2014E
`
`%-5.0%
`12,235
`
`12,879
`
`-7.7
`
`6.0%
`12.7%
`$576.88
`$1.9
`3,218
`
`4Q14E
`
`-5.0%
`1,119
`
`Price Increase
`
`-5.0%
`1,040
`
`-5.0%
`1,058
`
`16.9%
`$560.08
`$1.8
`3,231
`
`3Q14E
`
`-5.0%
`1,076
`
`-5.0%
`1,055
`
`-5.0%
`1,100
`
`2015E
`
`2014E
`
`Dec-14E
`
`Nov-14E
`
`Oct-14E
`
`Sep-14E
`
`Aug-14E
`
`Jul-14E
`
`0.0%
`$145.80
`$1.5
`10,185
`
`2Q14E
`
`-20.0%
`3,399
`
`-20.0%
`3,579
`
`-30.6%
`3,207
`
`0.0%
`$145.80
`$1.4
`9,923
`
`1Q14A
`
`-27.7%
`3,333
`
`-29.4%
`3,159
`
`41.7%
`$145.80
`$7.4
`50,780
`
`2013
`
`%-33.1%
`3,431
`
`50,780
`
`6.0
`-2
`
`Jun-14E
`
`Apr-14May-14E
`
`Mar-14
`
`Feb-14
`
`Jan-14
`
`2013
`
`15.8%Price Increase (5/1/14)
`23.5%
`$294.96
`$1.8
`6,111
`
`-30.0%
`2,009
`
`-31.2%
`1,940
`
`1Q14A
`
`-26.5%
`2,043
`
`-26.4%
`1,930
`
`17.4%
`$259.91
`$8.0
`30,958
`
`2013
`
`%-32.7%
`2,138
`
`30,958
`
`7.3
`-2
`
`Price Increase (2/28/2014):
`
`Jun-14E
`
`Apr-14May-14E
`
`Mar-14
`
`Feb-14
`
`Jan-14
`
`2013
`
`14.3%Price Increase (5/1/14)
`21.0%
`$538.54
`$1.7
`3,202
`
`-5.0%
`1,139
`
`-16.2%
`1,013
`
`1Q14A
`
`-6.2%
`1,116
`
`-16.2%
`995
`
`18.0%
`$473.81
`$6.6
`13,954
`
`2013
`
`%-12.5%
`1,091
`
`13,954
`
`0.4
`-1
`
`Price Increase (2/28/2014):
`
`12.0%
`18.9%
`$306.76
`$1.8
`5,746
`
`2Q14E
`
`-30.0%
`1,797
`
`12.0%
`21.3%
`$560.08
`$1.8
`3,228
`
`2Q14E
`
`-5.0%
`1,076
`
`Jun-14E
`
`Apr-14May-14E
`
`Mar-14
`
`Feb-14
`
`Jan-14
`
`2013
`
`Figure 11: Valeant Specialty Neuro/Other Products – 2013-2015E Monthly Continued
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`(c