Global Research
`
`19 October 2015
`
`(cid:4)(cid:5)(cid:3)
`
`
`
`
`
`Valeant Pharmaceuticals International
`Where Is the Faith?
`
`
`The business model is continuously evolving, which is good thing
`Investors are concerned that there is a sig change in the b-model, which is confusing to
`us. Mgt has been continuously evolving the b-model. (1) This mgt team didn't believe in
`sig promotional spend to support its prods yet evolved its thinking when it acquired or
`developed prods that would really respond to DTC (Jublia/ Xifaxan). (2) This mgt team
`was focused on pharma and yet with B&L, Valeant is now materially in med tech. (3)
`This mgt team was only focused on internal R&D in derm and yet it will boost spending
`in Eyecare and GI through newly acquired capabilities. It was never anti-R&D. It was/is
`against inefficient spending. What has clearly changed is the strategy of acquiring
`assets (Marathon/Aton), and then putting in sig price increases on day one. But this has
`never been a core part of the strategy and, instead mgt has been opportunistic in these
`situations. But this really doesn't change the company's main strategy. Mgt has been
`reviewing the potential divestiture\spin of the Neuro biz with it Board for a few years,
`but given the sell-off in the stock, mgt is open to new ideas to drive value.
`
`We believe it’s a mistake to under-estimate this CEO
`Mgt has no plans to use its equity for deals, but instead share repo has risen to the top
`along with more tuck-in BD for use of CF, followed by debt pay-down but with a focus
`of <4 leverage by YE 2016. We are still not sure why investors are disappointed that
`there won’t be material M&A as a catalyst anytime soon given the leverage post the
`Salix deal. However, there is a slight change regarding price increases, as it appears that
`mgt will manage to smaller increases in the current environment. Mgt’s comment was
`that for its 2016 forecast, no product has more than a 10% assumed net price
`increase, but its point was that biz is strong enough to make > $7.5B of EBITDA.
`
`Thoughts on the stock: No change to our thesis; patience should be rewarded
`We get it. In the current environment, the “glass is half empty;” a focus on less price
`increases and no short-term major deals, instead of the strong B&L and Salix trends,
`and the very strong earnings growth. It’s difficult to know when sentiment will shift,
`but we remain patient recommending VRX because we still believe in mgt.
`
`Valuation: We maintain our Buy rating and PT of $285
`Our PT is based on a P/E of ~16x our 2017E EPS of $18.00.
`
`
`
`Equities
`
`Americas
`Pharmaceuticals
`
`
`
`
`
`12-month rating
`
`12m price target
`
`Price
`
`RIC: VRX.N BBG: VRX US
`
`
`
`Buy
`
`US$285.00
`
`US$163.83
`
`
`
`Trading data and key metrics
`52-wk range
`US$262.52-124.78
`Market cap.
`US$56.5bn
`Shares o/s
`345m (COM)
`Free float
`100%
`Avg. daily volume ('000)
`455
`Avg. daily value (m)
`US$92.0
`Common s/h equity (12/15E)
`US$7.51bn
`P/BV (12/15E)
`7.5x
`Net debt / EBITDA (12/15E)
`4.1x
`
`
`
`EPS (UBS, diluted) (US$)
`
`12/15E
`
`To % ch
`2.36
`0
`2.56
`0
`2.74
`2
`4.12
`2
`11.78
`1
`16.20
`3
`18.00
`2
`
`Q1
`Q2
`Q3
`Q4E
`12/15E
`12/16E
`12/17E
`
`
`
`From
`2.36
`2.56
`2.70
`4.03
`11.65
`15.80
`17.65
`
`Cons.
`2.36
`2.56
`2.70
`4.00
`11.63
`16.17
`18.69
`
`Marc Goodman
`Analyst
`marc.goodman@ubs.com
`+1-212-713 1342
`Ami Fadia
`Analyst
`ami.fadia@ubs.com
`+1-212-713 6257
`
`
`
`Highlights (US$m)
`Revenues
`EBIT (UBS)
`Net earnings (UBS)
`EPS (UBS, diluted) (US$)
`DPS (US$)
`Net (debt) / cash
`
`
`
`12/12
`3,547
`1,871
`1,412
`4.52
`0.00
`(10,252)
`
`12/13
`5,770
`2,860
`2,046
`6.25
`0.00
`(17,368)
`
`12/14
`8,264
`3,846
`2,850
`8.34
`0.00
`(15,255)
`
`12/15E
`11,046
`5,643
`4,100
`11.78
`0.00
`(30,393)
`
`12/16E
`13,204
`7,266
`5,611
`16.20
`0.00
`(26,173)
`
`12/17E
`13,752
`7,597
`6,225
`18.00
`0.00
`(20,452)
`
`12/18E
`14,511
`8,068
`6,861
`19.96
`0.00
`(14,535)
`
`12/19E
`15,183
`8,475
`7,464
`22.52
`0.00
`(13,517)
`
`12/19E
`12/18E
`12/17E
`12/16E
`12/15E
`12/14
`12/13
`12/12
`Profitability/valuation
`EBIT margin %
`55.8
`55.6
`55.2
`55.0
`51.1
`46.5
`49.6
`52.7
`ROIC (EBIT) %
`22.9
`22.1
`20.4
`19.2
`19.3
`17.8
`15.6
`15.3
`EV/EBITDA (core) x
`8.6
`9.0
`9.2
`9.5
`10.8
`10.5
`8.4
`8.7
`P/E (UBS, diluted) x
`7.3
`8.2
`9.1
`10.1
`13.9
`15.5
`14.2
`11.6
`Equity FCF (UBS) yield %
`15.5
`14.4
`13.7
`12.6
`10.0
`9.2
`13.9
`12.3
`Net dividend yield %
`0.0
`0.0
`0.0
`0.0
`0.0
`0.0
`0.0
`0.0
`Source: Company accounts, Thomson Reuters, UBS estimates. Metrics marked as (UBS) have had analyst adjustments applied. Valuations: based on an average share price that year, (E): based on a
`share price of US$163.83 on 19 Oct 2015 18:41 EDT
`
`
`
`www.ubs.com/investmentresearch
`
`This report has been prepared by UBS Securities LLC. ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND REQUIRED DISCLOSURES BEGIN ON
`PAGE 17. UBS does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be
`aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this
`report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
`
`Page 1 of 20
`
`SENJU EXHIBIT 2203
`LUPIN v. SENJU
`IPR2015-01099
`
`

`
`
`
`
`
`Conference Call Takeaways
`
`(cid:131) Management expects GM to approach 80% and Salix sales of ~$600M in 4Q.
`
`(cid:131) Management expects to spend $400-500M in R&D for 2016.
`
`(cid:131)
`
`Jublia sales absorbed ~$10M of destocking; hence; reported sales were weaker
`than Rx trends.
`
`(cid:131) DTC spend in 3Q was $45M, lower than the $60M in 2Q due to summer
`seasonality.
`
`(cid:131)
`
`Salix inventories should be down to 1.0-1.5 months by year end.
`
`(cid:131) Valeant expects to submit the marketing materials for Addyi to the OPDP
`shortly, and the 148 reps will use the package insert to detail to docs in the
`meanwhile.
`
`(cid:131) Management indicated that it has already exceeded its $550M synergy target
`for Salix.
`
`(cid:131)
`
`(cid:131)
`
`The Xifaxan SSD study failed.
`
`The Phase 3 data for IDP-118 in psoriasis is expected in 2Q16.
`
`(cid:131) Management expects to file an NDA for brodalumab in November.
`
`(cid:131)
`
`Patient-assistance programs are expected to cost $635M in 2015 and $1B in
`2016.
`
`(cid:131) Management plans many new product launches to help drive sales in Europe.
`
`For 2016 management indicated that the impact from new BD, better-than-
`expected dermatology and Salix volume growth, strong trends in contact lenses
`and growth
`in China should more
`than offset
`lower-than-expected
`Neuro/Other price increases and FX headwinds to drive over $7.5B of EBITDA.
`
`(cid:131)
`
`
`
`Figure 1: Valeant – 2015 Guidance
`
`Revenues
`Cash EPS
`
`Prior 4Q15 Guidance
`$3.2-3.4B
`$3.98-4.18
`
`New 4Q15 Guidance
`$3.25-3.45B
`$4.00-4.20
`
`Revenues
`Cash EPS
`Adj. Cash Flow from Operations
`
`Source: Company reports
`
`New 2015 Guidance
`Prior 2015 Guidance
`$10.7-11.1B (incl. ~$1.2B from Salix) $11.0-11.2B (incl. ~$1.35B from Salix)
`$11.50-11.80
`$11.67-11.87
`>$3.2B
`>$3.35B
`
`
`
`
`
` Valeant Pharmaceuticals International 19 October 2015
`
`(cid:4)(cid:5)(cid:3)2
`
`Page 2 of 20
`
`

`
`
`
`Figure 2: Valeant Milestones
`
`Product
`
`Brodalumab
`IDP-120
`Arestin LCM
`
`Indication/Description
`
`Milestone/Event
`
`NDA submission
`Psoriasis
`Initiate Phase II study
`Novel acne combination
`Antibiotic treatment for periodontal gum disease NDA submission
`
`Date
`2015
`November
`4Q15
`4Q15
`2016
`Pain Management
`April 19, 2016 Reslistor Tablets
`Post-operating and inflammation and pain
`Mid-2016
`Lotemax Next Gen 0.38%
`Intraocular lens
`Mid-2016
`EnVista Toric
`July 21, 2016 Vesneo (Latanoprostene bunod) Glaucoma
`2Q16
`IDP-118
`Psoriasis
`3Q16
`IDP-118
`Psoriasis
`2016
`Luminesse (Brimonidine)
`Eye whitening
`2016
`Ultra Plus Powers
`Contact Lens
`2016
`BioTrue Toric
`Contact Lens
`2016
`Arestin LCM
`Antibiotic treatment for periodontal gum diseas
`2016/2017
`Emerade
`Anaphylaxis
`2017/2018
`2017
`4Q17
`2017/2018
`2019
`2019
`
`PDUFA Date for Opioid Induced Constipatio
`US filing
`File PMA
`PDUFA
`Phase 3 readout
`NDA submission
`US Launch
`Launch
`Launch
`Launch
`US Launch
`
`US Launch
`Potential readout of Phase 3
`Launch
`
`Launch
`
`Lotemax Next Gen 0.38%
`Rifaximin delayed release
`IDP-118
`
`Post-operating and inflammation and pain
`Crohn's Disease
`Psoriasis
`
`IDP-120
`
`Novel acne combination
`
`Source: Company reports
`
`
`
` Valeant Pharmaceuticals International 19 October 2015
`
`(cid:4)(cid:5)(cid:3)3
`
`Page 3 of 20
`
`

`
`
`
`Figure 3: 3Q15 VRX Variance Analysis
`
`3Q15E
`Amount
`
`% Chg
`
`3Q15A
`Amount
`% Chg
`
`Variance
`
`Comments
`
`53.4%
`14.9%
`12.4%
`20.5%
`-1.9%
`30.0%
`69.8%
`NA
`NA
`
`74.5%
`-5.1%
`52.7%
`-6.6%
`37.0%
`21.7%
`36.7%
`
`18.2%
`43.2%
`48.4%
`30.8%
`41.3%
`71.2%
`32.6%
`16.0%
`53.8%
`40.0%
`32.0%
`3.1%
`28.0%
`
`52.5%
`6.8%
`-3.0%
`34.8%
`1.1%
`39.6%
`35.2%
`NA
`NA
`
`80.5%
`-15.9%
`54.1%
`-14.7%
`35.9%
`16.0%
`35.5%
`
`14.6%
`42.9%
`34.5%
`72.3%
`45.4%
`85.1%
`33.8%
`-0.8%
`32.7%
`120.0%
`33.7%
`2.8%
`30.0%
`
`465.5
`151.0
`114.3
`60.4
`54.6
`546.5
`43.8
`69.3
`462.8
`
`1,947.2
`342.9
`2,290.1
`458.2
`2,748.3
`38.5
`2,786.8
`
`612.0
`2,174.8
`673.7
`101.3
`1,399.8
`-402.2
`997.6
`3.4%
`34.1
`2.2
`961.3
`351.0
`$2.74
`
`100.0%
`22.0%
`78.0%
`24.2%
`3.7%
`0.0%
`50.2%
`50.2%
`35.8%
`100.0%
`34.5%
`
`-2.8
`-11.5
`-18.1
`6.4
`1.6
`37.6
`-11.2
`-7.7
`91.5
`
`64.7
`-43.8
`20.9
`-43.3
`-22.4
`-2.9
`-24.3
`
`-18.8
`-5.5
`-69.3
`24.4
`39.4
`-30.2
`9.3
`-0.6%
`-5.4
`0.8
`12.5
`-0.9
`$0.04
`
`-0.5%
`0.5%
`-2.3%
`1.0%
`0.0%
`1.8%
`1.8%
`0.6%
`0.0%
`0.7%
`
`Consensus: $2.78B
`
`Consensus: $2.72
`
`
`
`Products and Alliance
`Dermatology
`Consumer
`Opthalmology Rx
`Contact Lenses
`Surgical
`Neuro & Other
`Dental
`Oncology/Urology
`GI
`
`468.3
`162.5
`132.4
`54.0
`53.0
`508.9
`55.0
`77.0
`371.3
`
`Geography
`US Market
`ROW
` Developed Markets
` Emerging Markets
`Total Product Sales
`Alliance, Royalty, Service and Other
`Total Revenues
`
`1,882.5
`386.7
`2,269.2
`501.5
`2,770.7
`
`
`40.4
`2,811.1
`
`COGS + COS
`Gross Profit
`SG&A
`R&D
`Operating Income
`Non-Operating Items
`Pretax Income
`Tax Rate
`Taxes
`Net income from non-controlling interest
`Net Income
`Average Shares
`Adjusted EPS
`
`Margin Analysis
`Sales
`COGS
`Gross Margin
`SG&A
`R&D
`Amortization
`Operating Margin
`Operating Margin (ex Amortization)
`Pretax Margin
`Cash Tax Rate
`Net Margin
`
`630.8
`2,180.3
`743.0
`76.9
`1,360.4
`-372.0
`988.3
`4.0%
`39.5
`1.4
`948.8
`351.9
`$2.70
`
`100.0%
`22.4%
`77.6%
`26.4%
`2.7%
`0.0%
`48.4%
`48.4%
`35.2%
`100.0%
`33.8%
`
`Source: UBS estimates, Company reports and FactSet Research
`
`
`
` Valeant Pharmaceuticals International 19 October 2015
`
`(cid:4)(cid:5)(cid:3)4
`
`Page 4 of 20
`
`

`
`
`
`7.7%
`2.8%
`2.7%
`
`6.2%
`6.1%
`6.1%
`
`8.8%
`8.8%
`
`5.0%
`2.4%
`4.0%
`
`4.7%
`4.6%
`4.6%
`
`6.2%
`2.5%
`4.4%
`
`5.6%
`5.5%
`5.5%
`
`4.6%
`2.4%
`3.5%
`
`4.2%
`4.2%
`4.1%
`
`2020E
`
`2019E
`
`2018E
`
`2017E
`
`2.9%
`
`3.0%
`
`3.1%
`
`2020E
`
`2019E
`
`2018E
`
`2017E
`
`$24.92
`
`$22.65
`
`$20.90
`
`$18.77
`
`$25.40
`321.1
`8,155.7
`429.2
`
`$22.52
`331.5
`7,464.4
`392.9
`
`$19.96
`343.8
`6,860.9
`361.1
`
`5.0%
`8,584.9
`
`5.0%
`7,857.3
`
`5.0%
`7,222.0
`
`5.0%
`6,553.1
`
`-543.2
`
`-618.2
`
`-846.0
`
`9,128.2
`
`8,475.5
`
`8,068.1
`
`7,596.6
`
`457.4
`3,428.2
`
`445.1
`3,337.7
`
`434.8
`3,210.3
`
`64.8
`2,860.1
`
`64.8
`2,733.4
`
`64.8
`2,589.8
`
`161.9
`
`161.9
`
`161.9
`
`2020E
`
`2019E
`
`2018E
`
`2017E
`
`2016E
`
`2015E
`
`4Q15E
`
`3Q15A
`
`3.1%
`
`3.0%
`
`2.9%
`
`3.6%
`
`$18.00
`345.9
`6,225.4
`327.7
`
`2016E
`
`2015E
`
`4Q15E
`
`3Q15A
`
`$16.28
`
`$11.66
`
`$4.02
`
`$4.00-4.20$11.67-11.87
`
`$11.78
`$16.20
`348.3
`346.3
`4,100.4
`5,610.5
`149.1
`295.3
`~5.0%~5.0%
`5.0%
`5,905.8
`
`3.5%
`4,249.5
`
`$4.12
`348.0
`1,432.6
`59.7
`
`$2.74
`351.0
`961.3
`34.1
`
`Co. Guidance
`
`4.0%
`1,492.3
`
`3.4%
`997.6
`
`-393.7-1,393.3-1,359.9-1,043.5
`
`-402.2
`
`424.1
`3,076.2
`
`7,265.8
`250400-500
`414.3
`2,972.8
`
`333.5
`2,603.4
`
`5,642.8
`
`8,579.710,652.911,097.011,713.212,258.213,013.8
`64.8
`3,034.6
`
`64.8
`2,486.3
`
`56.5
`2,410.2
`
`1,886.0
`
`1,399.8
`
`Co. Guidance
`
`96.0
`672.0
`
`2,654.0
`13.4
`670.2
`
`101.3
`673.7
`
`2,174.8
`13.6
`598.4
`
`80.7
`689.9
`
`$3,320$11,037$13,509$14,780$15,951$17,035$18,445
`
`3.25-3.45B11,000-11,200
`
`3,337.611,046.413,204.013,751.514,511.315,183.116,113.1
`161.9
`3,295.710,884.513,042.113,589.614,349.415,021.215,951.2
`
`161.9
`
`161.9
`
`41.9
`
`2,786.8
`38.6
`2,748.2
`
`2016E
`
`2015E
`
`4Q15E
`
`3Q15A
`
`38.0%35.4%42.5%47.6%20.0%33.8%34.1%34.0%29.9%59.6%41.1%37.6%11.1%10.9%12.8%12.8%
`9.3%
`44.7%48.0%54.7%48.0%20.4%39.5%35.0%37.9%33.7%62.7%43.9%36.8%11.0%10.2%
`9.3%
`45.2%48.6%54.2%48.1%20.8%39.6%34.2%40.2%33.8%62.7%44.2%39.0%11.0%10.2%
`
`52.9%52.9%56.3%32.8%13.0%34.5%21.1%48.7%45.4%65.8%46.7%28.8%
`98.5%156.4%170.1%20.0%-1.2%56.1%-9.0%22.1%72.3%63.3%36.3%24.2%
`77.9%96.5%113.4%42.4%16.7%56.9%18.7%34.9%34.5%28.0%29.3%14.2%
`
`61.0%68.8%76.0%35.2%13.6%41.9%18.9%42.7%42.9%54.2%40.6%24.2%
`72.3%109.8%126.0%29.2%2.3%49.0%8.6%11.5%15.3%22.8%14.7%
`3.2%
`62.7%76.6%86.3%33.4%10.5%43.2%16.2%33.9%35.5%46.4%33.7%19.5%
`
`1Q14
`
`2013
`
`
`
`
`
`Source: UBS estimates, Company reports, FactSet
`
`Cash EPS
`Net Income
`Pretax Income
`
`Operating Income
`R&D
`SG&A
`
`Gross Profit
`COGS
`Total Revenues
`
`35.4%31.8%31.9%35.0%38.6%34.5%36.9%32.8%34.5%42.9%37.1%42.5%45.3%47.3%49.2%50.6%
`36.6%32.7%32.7%36.3%40.2%35.7%37.8%34.2%35.8%44.7%38.5%44.7%47.7%49.8%51.8%53.3%
`
`Cash Net Margin
`Pretax Margin
`
`49.6%45.1%43.9%46.8%49.9%46.5%47.0%48.7%50.2%56.5%51.1%55.0%55.2%55.6%55.8%56.7%
`2.8%
`22.2%25.2%25.1%24.4%23.0%24.4%25.8%25.2%24.2%20.1%23.6%22.5%22.4%22.1%22.0%21.3%
`
`2.7%3.2%3.2%2.9%2.6%
`
`Operating Margin (Total Revenues)
`R&D
`SG&A
`
`74.5%73.6%72.2%74.0%75.5%73.9%75.3%76.9%78.0%79.5%77.7%80.7%80.7%80.7%80.7%80.8%
`25.0%26.2%27.7%25.6%24.4%25.9%24.5%22.8%21.8%20.3%22.1%19.1%19.1%19.0%19.0%19.0%
`100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
`
`Gross Margin (Total Revenues)
`COGS
`Revenues
`
`1Q14
`
`2013
`
`$1.76
`333.1
`599.7
`15.1
`
`$6.24
`327.5
`2,043.0
`65.1
`
`3.1%2.4%3.1%3.4%4.1%
`917.3
`
`617.1
`
`2,110.6
`
`-233.3
`
`-749.7
`
`850.4
`
`2,860.3
`
`61.0
`476.0
`
`156.8
`1,283.5
`
`4,300.51,387.41,473.21,522.41,721.3
`13.1
`545.6
`
`58.8
`1,410.3
`
`14.3
`484.5
`
` Consensus EPS
`
`Cash EPS
`Avg. Shares
`Cash Net Income
`Taxes
`
`Tax Rate
`Pretax Income
`
`Non-Operating Items
`
`Operating Income
`
`R&D
`SG&A
`
`Gross Profit
`COS
`COGS
`
` Consensus Revenues
`
`5,769.61,886.22,041.12,056.22,280.0
`43.6
`5,640.31,851.11,994.12,022.92,236.4
`
`129.3
`
`Total Revenues
`Royalty, Alliance and Service Revenue
`Product Sales
`
`Figure 4: Valeant Pharmaceuticals – Income Statement ($M, 2013-2020E)
`
`2013
`
`
`
`Valeant Pharmaceuticals International 19 October 2015
`
`(cid:4)(cid:5)(cid:3)5
`
`
`
`20141Q15A2Q15A
`
`4Q14
`
`3Q14
`
`2Q14
`
`3.0%2.5%3.0%
`
`20141Q15A2Q15A
`
`4Q14
`
`3Q14
`
`2Q14
`
`Co. Guidance
`
`$2.56
`350.9
`897.1
`37.0
`
`$2.36
`343.4
`809.3
`18.3
`
`$8.34
`341.5
`2,849.8
`98.6
`
`$2.58
`341.9
`880.7
`37.4
`
`$2.11
`341.3
`718.8
`25.7
`
`$1.91
`341.1
`650.6
`20.4
`
`3.3%2.2%4.0%
`935.5
`
`828.4
`
`2,947.1
`
`745.5
`
`667.2
`
`-395.9
`
`-201.5
`
`-899.1
`
`-220.2
`
`-217.3
`
`-228.3
`
`3,846.21,029.91,331.4
`
`962.81,137.5
`
`895.5
`
`55.5
`564.8
`
`244.7
`2,013.4
`
`58.8
`525.0
`
`58.8
`500.8
`
`66.1
`511.6
`
`6,104.31,650.22,102.0
`15.2
`615.2
`
`58.4
`2,100.8
`
`14.3
`526.4
`
`8,263.52,190.92,732.4
`37.4
`8,104.52,146.92,695.0
`
`159.0
`
`44.0
`
`15.0
`518.8
`
`16.0
`551.9
`
`Co. Guidance
`
`33.3
`
`47.0
`
`35.1
`
`20141Q15A2Q15A
`
`4Q14
`
`3Q14
`
`2Q14
`
`1Q14
`
`Page 5 of 20
`
`

`
`
`
`5.7%
`882.2
`330.9
`251.8
`21.7
`20.0
`48.2
`209.5
`
`7.3%
`2,220.3
`150.0
`85.6
`136.8
`0.0
`0.0
`0.0
`0.0
`110.0
`0.0
`50.0
`50.0
`223.2
`2.9
`5.9
`12.6
`18.4
`1.6
`1.8
`27.5
`80.2
`49.0
`65.0
`13.3
`1.4
`265.1
`15.9
`134.2
`21.4
`18.2
`680.5
`
`5.8%
`834.5
`315.1
`244.4
`20.7
`20.0
`45.9
`188.3
`
`-5.1%
`2,070.1
`150.0
`81.5
`130.3
`0.0
`0.0
`0.0
`0.0
`105.0
`0.0
`25.0
`35.0
`187.2
`2.7
`5.7
`12.1
`19.0
`2.1
`1.6
`29.4
`72.0
`44.9
`60.7
`11.5
`1.5
`227.2
`14.7
`126.8
`49.0
`39.8
`635.3
`
`7.0%
`788.5
`300.1
`237.3
`19.7
`20.0
`43.8
`167.6
`
`2.0%
`2,180.8
`150.0
`77.6
`124.1
`0.0
`0.0
`0.0
`0.0
`100.0
`0.0
`0.0
`25.0
`155.9
`2.5
`5.5
`11.7
`19.6
`2.8
`1.4
`31.3
`62.6
`41.2
`56.8
`39.7
`1.7
`195.9
`13.7
`119.8
`149.5
`202.9
`589.6
`
`7.3%
`737.0
`280.5
`226.0
`19.7
`20.0
`41.7
`149.2
`
`4.7%
`2,138.9
`150.0
`73.9
`118.2
`0.0
`0.0
`0.0
`0.0
`95.0
`0.0
`0.0
`0.0
`128.8
`2.2
`5.3
`11.3
`20.3
`3.8
`1.3
`33.4
`49.9
`37.8
`53.1
`48.4
`2.8
`170.0
`12.6
`113.2
`142.2
`339.0
`526.2
`
`+25-30%+15-20%
`6.7%
`2,043.6
`150.0
`70.4
`112.5
`0.0
`0.0
`0.0
`0.0
`80.0
`0.0
`0.0
`0.0
`100.3
`1.9
`5.2
`10.9
`22.2
`5.1
`1.3
`35.7
`34.5
`34.7
`71.2
`43.5
`9.4
`148.8
`89.6
`106.9
`132.9
`296.1
`480.6
`
`551.2
`70.0
`20.0
`39.8
`0.0
`0.0
`0.0
`0.0
`20.0
`0.0
`0.0
`0.0
`18.6
`0.4
`1.4
`3.2
`6.6
`1.7
`2.1
`8.8
`5.6
`11.0
`25.3
`10.8
`9.0
`34.6
`20.8
`30.1
`33.7
`69.9
`107.8
`
`52.6%17.7%39.1%
`1,915.1
`150.3
`64.0
`102.3
`0.0
`0.0
`0.0
`0.0
`70.0
`0.0
`0.0
`0.0
`49.6
`1.5
`5.1
`10.6
`25.8
`6.8
`28.0
`38.1
`16.4
`30.7
`92.3
`50.5
`111.4
`126.3
`86.8
`97.4
`122.7
`257.9
`370.7
`
`465.5
`20.7
`17.0
`27.5
`0.0
`0.0
`0.0
`0.0
`18.0
`0.0
`0.0
`0.0
`14.6
`0.4
`1.1
`2.4
`6.1
`1.7
`8.0
`11.9
`4.1
`6.0
`23.0
`12.4
`15.0
`34.7
`20.0
`22.0
`32.0
`66.0
`101.0
`
`8.1%37.8%54.3%
`461.8
`36.1
`15.0
`23.0
`0.0
`0.0
`0.0
`0.0
`17.0
`0.0
`0.0
`0.0
`11.4
`0.3
`1.2
`2.5
`6.3
`1.7
`8.6
`9.0
`3.7
`6.2
`18.0
`12.3
`25.0
`29.0
`20.0
`22.3
`31.0
`65.0
`97.0
`
`419.3
`23.5
`12.0
`12.0
`0.0
`0.0
`0.0
`0.0
`15.0
`0.0
`0.0
`0.0
`5.0
`0.4
`1.3
`2.6
`6.8
`1.7
`9.3
`8.3
`2.9
`7.5
`26.0
`15.0
`51.0
`28.0
`26.0
`23.0
`26.0
`57.0
`59.0
`
`1,376.8
`-0.2
`49.0
`93.0
`10.0
`53.0
`7.0
`29.0
`33.0
`0.0
`0.0
`0.0
`0.0
`2.5
`6.1
`11.9
`34.0
`9.0
`35.0
`28.0
`14.5
`22.0
`88.0
`69.0
`136.0
`97.0
`67.0
`104.0
`104.0
`209.0
`66.0
`
`8.9%34.0%
`468.3
`305.1
`13.0
`-2.5
`15.5
`7.3
`28.0
`25.0
`0.0
`0.0
`0.0
`0.0
`0.0
`0.0
`0.0
`0.0
`20.0
`13.0
`0.0
`0.0
`0.0
`0.0
`0.0
`0.0
`0.0
`0.0
`0.6
`0.9
`1.4
`1.5
`3.0
`2.4
`16.0
`7.0
`1.0
`1.0
`11.0
`8.0
`8.0
`9.0
`3.8
`3.6
`9.0
`5.0
`42.0
`14.0
`18.0
`16.0
`48.0
`44.0
`30.0
`30.0
`23.0
`17.0
`33.0
`16.0
`31.0
`22.0
`61.0
`54.0
`52.0
`11.0
`
`-7.2%
`299.2
`3.3
`21.2
`25.0
`0.0
`27.0
`3.0
`9.0
`0.0
`0.0
`0.0
`0.0
`0.0
`0.9
`1.6
`2.2
`3.0
`2.0
`8.0
`5.0
`7.1
`4.0
`12.0
`18.0
`29.0
`19.0
`13.0
`15.0
`25.0
`43.0
`3.0
`
`-5.3%
`304.2
`-13.9
`5.0
`15.0
`10.0
`26.0
`4.0
`20.0
`0.0
`0.0
`0.0
`0.0
`0.0
`0.2
`1.6
`4.3
`8.0
`5.0
`8.0
`6.0
`0.0
`4.0
`20.0
`17.0
`15.0
`18.0
`14.0
`40.0
`26.0
`51.0
`0.0
`
`54.2%
`1,273.4
`1.6
`0.0
`80.4
`39.5
`90.0
`49.0
`108.0
`0.0
`0.0
`0.0
`0.0
`0.0
`0.0
`7.4
`15.5
`34.0
`72.0
`25.0
`18.0
`0.0
`15.0
`40.0
`61.0
`63.0
`89.0
`71.0
`120.0
`66.0
`208.0
`0.0
`
`+10%+10%
`6.7%
`9.8%
`686.7
`643.7
`262.2
`245.0
`215.3
`205.0
`19.7
`19.7
`20.0
`20.0
`39.7
`37.8
`129.9
`116.2
`
`Co. Guidance
`
`6.8%23.1%
`174.0
`151.0
`69.0
`57.0
`55.0
`48.0
`5.5
`5.5
`5.0
`5.0
`9.3
`9.5
`30.2
`26.0
`
`2.3%
`163.2
`59.0
`52.0
`5.2
`6.0
`11.0
`30.0
`
`8.0%
`155.5
`60.0
`50.0
`3.5
`4.0
`8.0
`30.0
`
`6.1%87.1%
`586.4
`141.4
`230.0
`54.0
`200.0
`48.0
`10.4
`4.4
`20.0
`4.0
`36.0
`7.0
`90.0
`24.0
`
`213.4%251.2%296.0%43.1%
`141.4
`62.0
`44.0
`3.4
`4.0
`9.0
`19.0
`
`144.0
`52.0
`54.0
`0.0
`7.0
`10.0
`21.0
`
`313.4
`66.0
`75.0
`37.4
`24.0
`36.0
`75.0
`
`159.6
`62.0
`54.0
`2.6
`5.0
`10.0
`26.0
`
`Co. Guidance
`
`2020E
`
`2019E
`
`2018E
`
`2017E
`
`2016E
`
`2015E
`
`4Q15E
`
`3Q15A
`
`1Q15A2Q15A
`
`2014
`
`4Q14
`
`3Q14
`
`2Q14
`
`1Q14
`
`2013
`
`Figure 5: Valeant Pharmaceuticals – Annual Sales ($M, 2013-2020E)
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`Source: UBS estimates, Company reports, FactSet
`
` % Change
` Subtotal Consumer Sales
`Bausch & Lomb - Vitamins
`Bausch & Lomb - Contact Lens Solutions
`Other Skincare
`AcneFree
`J&J Brands (acquired 9/28/12)
`CeraVe
`Consumer
`
` % Change
` Subtotal Rx Derm Sales
`Other Dermatology
`Solta
`Obagi
`Sculptra
`Dysport
`Perlane
`Restylane
`Precision Products
`Brodalumab
`IDP 120 (Acne combo)
`IDP 118 (Psoriasis)
`Onexton
`Bensal HP
`Renova (acne)
`Efudex (Basal cell carcinoma)
`Zyclara Franchise
`Vanos
`Atralin
`Benzaclin
`Luzu (Luliconazole)
`Xerese
`Carac
`Acanya
`Targretin
`Retin-A Franchise
`Ziana
`Zovirax Franchise
`Elidel
`Solodyn
`Jublia
`Rx Derm
`
`US
`
`Valeant Pharmaceuticals International 19 October 2015
`
`(cid:4)(cid:5)(cid:3)6
`
`
`
`Page 6 of 20
`
`

`
`
`
`5.1%
`107.3
`2.0
`5.5%
`39.6
`5.0%
`65.6
`
`5.1%
`102.1
`2.0
`5.5%
`37.6
`5.0%
`62.5
`
`5.1%
`97.2
`2.0
`5.5%
`35.6
`5.0%
`59.5
`
`5.1%
`92.5
`2.0
`5.5%
`33.8
`5.0%
`56.7
`
`88.0
`2.0
`5.5%
`32.0
`5.0%
`54.0
`
`19.4
`0.4
`-14.9%-77.2%
`6.7
`23.0%-68.4%
`12.3
`
`19.4
`0.4
`
`6.7
`
`12.3
`
`0.0
`
`0.0
`
`0.0
`
`0.0
`
`0.0
`
`0.0
`
`0.0
`
`5.0%
`408.8
`
`5.0%
`389.3
`
`5.0%
`370.8
`
`7.0%
`353.1
`
`32.5%
`330.0
`
`249.1
`
`76.0
`
`69.3
`
`7.0%
`
`7.0%
`
`7.0%
`
`8.0%
`
`310.9
`
`290.6
`
`271.6
`
`253.8
`
`235.0
`
`192.6
`
`55.0
`
`43.8
`
`4.0%
`269.4
`
`5.0%
`315.3
`
`6.2%
`627.4
`110.0
`50.0
`92.6
`25.0
`0.9
`14.6
`75.2
`0.0
`173.8
`21.8
`13.1
`3.2
`6.4
`40.8
`
`4.0%
`259.0
`
`5.0%
`300.2
`
`7.8%
`590.9
`110.0
`45.0
`75.3
`20.0
`1.4
`15.5
`71.6
`0.0
`165.5
`23.3
`14.6
`3.5
`6.4
`38.8
`
`4.0%
`249.0
`
`6.0%
`286.0
`
`4.9%
`548.4
`110.0
`40.0
`55.8
`15.0
`2.0
`16.4
`68.2
`0.0
`151.6
`26.0
`16.2
`3.9
`6.3
`36.9
`
`5.0%
`239.5
`
`6.0%
`269.8
`
`2.5%
`58.0
`
`1.1%
`54.6
`
`221.3
`
`62.0
`
`60.4
`
`+10%+20%
`
`9.7%13.2%13.7%-13.2%
`522.8
`144.6
`110.0
`28.5
`20.0
`0.0
`33.3
`0.0
`10.0
`0.0
`3.2
`3.7
`17.3
`6.0
`64.9
`14.9
`0.0
`0.0
`129.5
`24.6
`70.7
`50.6
`18.0
`5.0
`4.4
`1.4
`6.3
`1.7
`35.1
`8.4
`
`529.6
`90.0
`0.0
`0.0
`0.0
`14.6
`27.6
`53.7
`0.0
`89.6
`190.6
`20.0
`5.4
`6.2
`32.0
`
`602.2
`100.0
`10.0
`23.6
`5.0
`11.0
`18.3
`61.9
`0.0
`108.0
`199.8
`20.0
`4.9
`6.3
`33.4
`
`-3.0%
`114.3
`12.8
`0.0
`0.0
`0.0
`3.7
`6.8
`13.1
`0.0
`18.0
`44.0
`5.0
`1.4
`1.5
`8.1
`
`2020E
`
`2019E
`
`2018E
`
`2017E
`
`2016E
`
`2015E
`
`4Q15E
`
`73.7
`
`30.1
`
`+15%+10%
`35.2%33.8%52.3%22.0%
`
`Co. Guidance
`
`110.3%-19.4%10.7%20.0%37.9%12.8%58.2%90.3%
`
`59.0
`
`34.8
`
`126.5
`
`41.1
`
`32.4
`
`31.0
`
`22.0
`
`112.1
`
`+10%+10%
`1.8%
`5.0%
`217.2
`228.1
`+15%+20%
`34.8%45.5%31.1%15.0%
`254.5
`
`Co. Guidance
`
`Co. Guidance
`
`3.7%
`56.5
`
`-0.4%
`48.1
`
`-4.6%136.1%
`213.4
`
`56.6
`
`73.6%
`54.0
`
`54.5
`
`48.3
`
`90.4
`
`82.1%13.3%171.4%16.6%26.4%
`51.2
`
`47.7
`
`168.8
`
`42.6
`
`44.8
`
`40.5
`
`40.9
`
`62.2
`
`Co. Guidance
`
`7.5%97.2%30.0%14.0%
`135.4
`131.8
`17.9
`28.0
`0.0
`0.0
`0.0
`0.0
`0.0
`0.0
`3.7
`3.7
`8.0
`7.6
`13.2
`11.5
`0.0
`0.0
`23.8
`20.0
`53.0
`47.0
`5.0
`3.0
`1.4
`2.0
`1.6
`3.0
`7.8
`6.0
`
`129.1
`30.8
`0.0
`0.0
`0.0
`3.5
`6.8
`12.5
`0.0
`17.0
`43.0
`5.0
`1.4
`1.5
`7.7
`
`467.7
`94.2
`0.0
`0.0
`0.0
`14.4
`32.8
`50.0
`0.0
`66.0
`153.0
`22.0
`6.0
`6.8
`25.5
`
`57.5%
`117.8
`28.7
`0.0
`0.0
`0.0
`3.7
`8.4
`15.0
`0.0
`16.0
`35.0
`3.0
`1.0
`1.0
`6.0
`
`118.8
`23.9
`0.0
`0.0
`0.0
`3.7
`9.7
`10.0
`0.0
`13.0
`45.0
`5.0
`1.0
`1.4
`6.0
`
`99.3
`13.5
`0.0
`0.0
`0.0
`3.3
`7.1
`13.5
`0.0
`17.0
`26.0
`8.0
`2.0
`1.4
`7.5
`
`237.2
`23.8
`0.0
`0.0
`0.0
`7.1
`14.6
`25.0
`6.0
`31.0
`58.4
`31.0
`8.1
`8.7
`23.5
`
`
`
`
`
`Source: UBS estimates, Company reports
`
`Total Synergetics
`Others
`
`Neurosurgery
`
`Ophthalmic
`Synergetics
` % Change
`Addyi - Sprout Pharma
`Women's Health
`
` % Change
`Dendreon - Provenge
`Oncology
`
` % Change
`
`OraPharma
`Dentistry
`
` % Change
`Bausch & Lomb - Surgical
`
` % Change
`Bausch & Lomb - Contact Lenses
`
` % Change
` Subtotal Ophthalmology Rx Sales
`Other
`MIM-D3
`Vesneo (Latanoprostene Bunod)
`Brimonidine OTC
`Zirgan
`Alrex
`Besivance
`Bromday
`Prolensa
`Lotemax Franchise
`Visudyne
`Macugen
`Lacrisert
`Timoptic
`Ophthalmology Rx
`
`3Q15A
`
`1Q15A2Q15A
`
`2014
`
`4Q14
`
`3Q14
`
`2Q14
`
`1Q14
`
`2013
`
`Figure 6: Valeant Pharmaceuticals – Annual Sales ($M, 2013-2020E)
`
`
`
`Valeant Pharmaceuticals International 19 October 2015
`
`(cid:4)(cid:5)(cid:3)7
`
`
`
`Page 7 of 20
`
`

`
`
`
`2,770.9
`
`2,499.6
`
`50.0
`0.0%
`50.0
`3.0%
`49.2
`6.6%
`19.5
`
`45.0
`0.0%
`50.0
`3.0%
`47.7
`6.6%
`18.3
`
`40.0
`0.0%
`50.0
`3.0%
`46.4
`6.6%
`17.2
`
`50.0
`2.8%
`50.0
`
`45.0
`27.0%
`16.1
`
`110.6
`
`133.8
`
`27.0
`
`31.1
`
`161.7
`21.4%-73.9%
`70.7
`271.0
`
`193.1
`
`20.0
`
`10.0
`
`0.0
`
`0.0
`
`0.0
`110.3%19.9%15.9%13.7%11.6%
`2,291.3
`1,299.6
`
`0.0
`
`0.0
`
`0.0
`
`0.0
`
`2,052.9
`
`1,804.9
`
`1,557.7
`
`45.8%65.4%38.0%28.6%12.5%
`178.6
`100.0%50.0%13.3%
`85.0
`45.8%19.2%14.0%14.0%11.8%
`83.7
`93.6
`446.4
`482.1
`7.7%
`7.7%
`221.8
`238.9
`8.3%
`8.3%
`224.6
`243.2
`-6.4%-13.5%
`27.0
`110.3%19.9%16.5%14.2%12.0%
`2,072.9
`2,321.3
`1,299.6
`100.0%50.0%
`30.0
`
`158.7
`
`123.5
`
`89.5
`
`54.1
`
`75.0
`
`50.0
`
`25.0
`
`0.0
`
`31.2
`
`54.1
`64.5
`73.5
`336.9
`377.8
`413.3
`9.9%
`53.5%15.2%
`162.7
`205.9
`187.4
`59.6%
`8.9%
`9.3%
`174.3
`207.4
`190.4
`64.9%-68.9%-13.8%
`33.3
`124.1
`
`38.7
`
`1,814.9
`
`1,557.7
`
`9.4%
`3,376.9
`7.1%
`75.0
`177.8%-20.0%12.5%11.1%10.0%
`55.0
`0.0%
`50.0
`3.0%
`50.6
`6.6%
`20.8
`85.1%-16.3%-17.3%-17.3%-17.3%
`91.5
`
`25.0
`
`78.4%
`1.2%10.9%11.4%
`2,470.0
`3,085.5
`400.0%66.7%20.0%16.7%
`70.0
`
`60.0
`
`50.0
`
`30.0
`
`~$1,350
`
`1,384.6
`
`610.3
`
`6.0
`
`18.0
`
`48.6
`
`26.3
`
`12.7
`
`6.0
`
`7.0
`
`15.0
`
`9.3
`
`3.9
`
`104.3
`
`54.5
`
`223.2
`
`144.2
`
`37.1
`
`15.0
`
`0.0
`
`37.1
`215.2
`
`15.0
`79.2
`
`106.0
`
`36.0
`
`109.2
`
`43.2
`
`75.3
`
`26.3
`
`617.9
`
`249.9
`
`0.0
`
`0.0
`
`617.9
`
`249.9
`
`2020E
`
`2019E
`
`2018E
`
`2017E
`
`2016E
`
`2015E
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`(cid:4)(cid:5)(cid:3)8
`
`Source: UBS estimates, Company reports, FactSet
`
`Co. Guidance
`
`461.0
`
`313.3
`
`0.0
`
`6.0
`
`0.0
`
`5.0
`
`18.5
`
`15.1
`
`9.0
`
`4.3
`
`29.5
`
`53.0
`
`8.0
`
`4.5
`
`20.3
`
`26.0
`
`11.7
`
`10.3
`
`11.7
`81.0
`
`46.0
`
`35.0
`
`28.0
`
`10.3
`55.0
`
`24.0
`
`31.0
`
`21.0
`
`220.0
`
`148.0
`
`220.0
`
`148.0
`
`Growth Rate
`
`Total Product Revenues
`
`Uceris (Budesonide) Rectal Foam
`
`Growth Rate
`
`Growth Rate
`
`Ruconest (acute HAE)
`
`Growth Rate
`
`Other
`
`Growth Rate
`
`Deflux (Vesicoureteral Reflux)
`
`Growth Rate
`
`Cycloset (Type 2 diabetes)
`
`Growth Rate
`
`Zegerid (heartburn)
`
`Growth Rate
`
`Glumetza (Type 2 diabetes)
`
`Growth Rate
`
`Relistor Franchise
`
`Relistor (OIC oral) - Risk adj
`
`Growth Rate
`
`Growth Rate
`
`Relistor Injection (OIC)
`Ulcerative Colitis Franchise
`
`Growth Rate
`
`Uceris (Ulcerative Colitis)
`
`Growth Rate
`
`Apriso (Ulcerative Colitis)
`
`MoviPrep/OsmoPrep Franchise
`
`Growth Rate
`
`Growth Rate
`
`Xifaxan Franchise
`
`Growth Rate
`
`Rifaximin SSD (Risk-adjusted)
`
`Growth Rate
`
`Rifaximin EIR (Risk-adjusted)
`
`Growth Rate
`Total Xifaxan
`Salix Product Sales
`
`4Q15E
`
`3Q15A
`
`1Q15A2Q15A
`
`2014
`
`4Q14
`
`3Q14
`
`2Q14
`
`1Q14
`
`2013
`
`Figure 7: Valeant Pharmaceuticals – Annual Sales ($M, 2013-2020E)
`
`
`
`
`
`Valeant Pharmaceuticals International 19 October 2015
`
`
`
`Page 8 of 20
`
`

`
`
`
`6.5%
`9,794.510,209.910,869.7
`
`5.3%
`
`4.2%
`
`80.5%75.9%69.4%21.7%
`9,096.0
`1,947.8
`
`2,320.2
`
`7,473.8
`
`3.8
`6.5%
`9,790.710,206.110,865.9
`8.8%
`3,893.0
`5.2%
`6,973.0
`
`3.8
`4.2%
`
`3.8
`5.3%
`
`3,238.8
`3.2%
`6,551.9
`
`2.0%10.0%10.4%
`3,576.8
`1.2%
`6,629.3
`
`2.8%
`
`2.5%
`
`1.8%
`
`1.6%
`
`+5%
`1.5%
`
`+5%
`37.7%30.3%44.6%
`
`Co. Guidance
`
`2,347.6
`290.0
`622.7
`21.7
`23.0
`89.1
`254.3
`11.4
`12.0
`10.9
`15.5
`34.4
`2.5
`53.6
`221.2
`31.6
`62.6
`342.3
`21.4
`227.5
`
`2,283.9
`290.0
`593.0
`20.7
`26.0
`93.8
`239.9
`11.3
`12.0
`10.8
`15.4
`33.0
`2.3
`51.1
`210.7
`33.1
`60.8
`318.3
`22.2
`239.5
`
`2,227.7
`290.0
`564.8
`19.7
`29.0
`98.8
`226.3
`11.2
`12.0
`10.7
`15.2
`31.8
`2.1
`48.6
`200.7
`34.7
`59.1
`296.5
`24.4
`252.1
`
`2,188.8
`290.0
`537.9
`18.7
`32.0
`104.0
`213.5
`11.1
`12.0
`10.6
`16.0
`30.5
`2.0
`46.3
`191.1
`36.3
`57.5
`276.5
`41.5
`261.3
`
`2,154.2
`290.0
`502.7
`17.9
`35.0
`109.4
`201.4
`11.1
`12.0
`10.5
`17.7
`30.0
`2.4
`44.1
`182.0
`38.0
`55.8
`255.5
`73.3
`265.4
`
`2,121.9
`289.7
`457.0
`17.0
`38.0
`115.2
`190.0
`10.5
`12.0
`10.9
`19.9
`29.1
`23.7
`42.0
`91.0
`42.7
`51.2
`179.0
`219.4
`283.8
`
`568.8
`90.0
`125.0
`4.3
`9.5
`40.2
`55.0
`2.7
`3.0
`3.2
`5.1
`7.3
`2.2
`10.5
`35.0
`10.2
`14.0
`58.5
`23.4
`69.8
`
`527.3
`69.5
`85.0
`4.3
`9.5
`25.0
`50.0
`2.8
`3.0
`2.6
`5.0
`7.5
`3.6
`10.5
`8.0
`10.4
`12.2
`58.5
`73.0
`87.0
`
`508.7
`68.7
`113.0
`4.3
`9.5
`25.0
`45.0
`2.5
`3.0
`2.6
`4.9
`7.3
`9.2
`10.5
`15.0
`10.9
`12.4
`36.0
`66.0
`63.0
`
`2020E
`
`2019E
`
`2018E
`
`2017E
`
`2016E
`
`2015E
`
`4Q15E
`
`3Q15A
`
`1Q15A2Q15A
`
`2.2%
`9,299.5
`
`3.8
`2.2%
`9,295.7
`
`2,945.2
`2.4%
`6,350.6
`
`3.8
`21.7%
`9,092.2
`74.7%
`2,888.0
`6.6%
`6,204.2
`
`2.8
`
`0.9
`
`0.6
`
`0.7
`
`0.6
`
`7,471.0
`
`2,319.3
`
`1,947.2
`
`1,822.8
`
`1,381.8
`
`530.3
`1,653.1
`31.4%22.4%31.9%
`5,817.9
`1,416.9
`
`1,613.5
`
`705.7
`
`30.1
`
`517.2
`61.6
`134.0
`4.3
`9.5
`25.0
`40.0
`2.5
`3.0
`2.6
`4.9
`6.9
`8.7
`10.5
`33.0
`11.1
`12.7
`26.0
`57.0
`64.0
`
`3.8
`
`0.9
`
`0.6
`
`1.6
`
`0.7
`
`7.2
`
`4,409.2
`
`1,318.4
`
`1,078.4
`
`1,015.3
`
`997.1
`
`3,158.7
`
`Total Valeant US Sales (ex-JV)
`
`387.0
`39.6%35.6%41.4%
`1,435.8
`4,409.2
`
`1,351.7
`
`1,318.4
`
`1,078.4
`
`1,015.3
`
`997.1
`
`3,158.7
`
`Total Legacy Valeant US Sales (Excl JV Sales)
`
`Recent Acquisitions
`
`38.0%50.2%37.1%38.1%28.4%37.2%52.8%63.2%
`
` % Change
`
`1,467.6
`122.9
`0.0
`8.0
`53.0
`128.0
`217.0
`11.9
`12.0
`15.6
`24.1
`28.1
`28.0
`40.0
`40.0
`71.0
`43.0
`146.0
`200.0
`279.0
`
`436.6
`55.0
`0.0
`4.0
`18.0
`32.0
`67.0
`2.9
`3.0
`4.0
`5.7
`7.0
`9.0
`14.0
`17.0
`18.0
`12.0
`41.0
`50.0
`77.0
`
`382.9
`10.4
`0.0
`4.0
`11.0
`40.0
`60.0
`3.1
`3.0
`4.4
`6.0
`7.1
`7.0
`11.0
`3.0
`24.0
`10.0
`53.0
`53.0
`73.0
`
`311.7
`16.4
`0.0
`0.0
`11.0
`26.0
`45.0
`3.0
`3.0
`4.0
`6.2
`7.2
`6.0
`7.0
`7.0
`17.0
`10.0
`27.0
`52.0
`64.0
`
`338.4
`41.2
`0.0
`0.0
`13.0
`30.0
`45.0
`2.9
`3.0
`3.3
`6.2
`6.8
`8.0
`8.0
`13.0
`12.0
`11.0
`25.0
`45.0
`65.0
`
`1,070.0
`181.5
`0.0
`0.0
`48.0
`120.0
`87.0
`17.0
`16.0
`18.5
`28.3
`25.9
`17.8
`16.0
`33.0
`31.0
`30.0
`55.0
`166.0
`178.0
`
`2014
`
`4Q14
`
`3Q14
`
`2Q14
`
`1Q14
`
`2013
`
`Neurology & Other Total Product Sales
`Others
`Marathon (Nitropress/Isuprel)
`Precision
`Teva Generics
`Generics
`Bausch & Lomb - Generics
`Librax
`Tiazac
`Migranal
`Ativan
`Edecrin
`Mestinon
`Ammonul
`Virazole
`Cardizem CD
`Mephyton
`Cuprimine/Syprine
`Xenazine
`Wellbutrin XL
`Neurology & Other
`
`Figure 8: Valeant Pharmaceuticals – Annual Sales ($M, 2013-2020E)
`
`
`
`
`
`Valeant Pharmaceuticals International 19 October 2015
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`(cid:4)(cid:5)(cid:3)9
`
`Source: UBS estimates, Company reports, FactSet
`
` % Change
`Total Valeant US Sales
`
`JV Revenues
`
`74.9%56.6%59.0%32.3%22.9%39.4%38.5%79.3%
`1,823.5
`3,165.9
`
`1,382.4
`
`4,413.0
`
`1,319.3
`
`1,079.0
`
`1,016.9
`
`997.8
`
`Page 9 of 20
`
`

`
`
`
`5.6%
`382.4
`
`5.6%
`362.1
`
`6.0%
`343.0
`
`5.9%
`323.7
`
`0.0%
`305.7
`
`12.9
`0.0
`0.0
`12.9
`0.0
`
`6.7%
`91.8
`32.5
`13.8
`0.0
`18.8
`26.8
`
`5.0%
`277.7
`115.0
`8.0
`12.0
`8.5
`12.1
`5.4
`16.1
`11.2
`21.4
`8.0
`44.8
`7.0
`5.3
`2.9
`
`11.7
`0.0
`0.0
`11.7
`0.0
`
`6.7%
`86.0
`29.5
`13.1
`0.0
`17.9
`25.5
`
`5.0%
`264.3
`105.0
`7.0
`11.4
`8.1
`11.5
`5.1
`15.3
`10.7
`20.4
`8.0
`43.9
`8.2
`6.3
`3.4
`
`10.6
`0.0
`0.0
`10.6
`0.0
`
`6.6%
`80.7
`26.8
`12.5
`0.0
`17.0
`24.3
`
`5.6%
`251.7
`95.0
`6.0
`10.9
`7.7
`10.9
`4.9
`14.6
`10.2
`19.4
`8.0
`43.1
`9.6
`7.4
`4.0
`
`9.7
`0.0
`0.0
`9.7
`0.0
`
`6.6%
`75.7
`24.4
`11.9
`0.0
`16.2
`23.2
`
`5.5%
`238.3
`85.0
`4.0
`9.9
`7.4
`10.4
`4.6
`13.9
`9.7
`18.5
`8.0
`42.2
`11.3
`8.7
`4.7
`
`8.8
`0.0
`0.0
`8.8
`0.0
`
`6.5%
`71.0
`22.2
`11.3
`0.0
`15.4
`22.1
`
`-2.3%
`225.9
`75.0
`2.0
`9.0
`7.0
`9.9
`4.4
`13.2
`9.2
`17.6
`8.0
`41.4
`13.3
`10.2
`5.5
`
`8.0
`0.0
`0.0
`8.0
`0.0
`
`7.5%
`66.7
`20.2
`10.8
`0.0
`14.7
`21.0
`
`-9.8%-21.0%-12.3%-12.1%
`231.1
`65.0
`0.0
`15.0
`5.0
`9.5
`4.2
`12.6
`8.8
`16.8
`8.0
`40.6
`22.2
`17.0
`6.5
`
`63.1
`19.2
`0.0
`4.5
`1.3
`3.5
`1.1
`3.2
`2.2
`4.2
`2.0
`10.0
`5.6
`5.0
`1.6
`
`55.3
`13.1
`0.0
`4.0
`1.3
`2.0
`1.1
`3.2
`2.2
`4.2
`2.0
`10.2
`5.6
`5.0
`1.6
`
`61.3
`20.6
`0.0
`3.5
`1.3
`2.0
`1.1
`3.2
`2.2
`4.2
`2.0
`10.2
`5.6
`4.0
`1.6
`
`-3.1%
`51.3
`12.1
`0.0
`3.0
`1.3
`2.0
`1.1
`3.2
`2.2
`4.2
`2.0
`10.2
`5.6
`3.0
`1.6
`
`0.9%
`263.0
`85.6
`0.0
`3.0
`3.0
`9.0
`4.0
`12.0
`8.0
`16.0
`14.0
`39.8
`37.0
`24.0
`7.7
`
`0.1%
`72.0
`30.3
`0.0
`2.0
`0.8
`2.3
`1.0
`3.0
`2.0
`4.0
`2.0
`9.8
`8.0
`5.0
`1.9
`
`9.3%
`70.0
`23.1
`0.0
`1.0
`0.8
`2.3
`1.0
`3.0
`2.0
`4.0
`4.0
`10.0
`10.0
`7.0
`1.9
`
`3.2%
`68.0
`19.1
`0.0
`0.0
`0.8
`2.3
`1.0
`3.0
`2.0
`4.0
`4.0
`10.0
`10.0
`10.0
`1.9
`
`-7.0%-17.8%-11.1%-10.1%
`305.8
`
`81.8
`
`74.0
`
`80.0
`
`-2.8%
`70.0
`
`-2.2%
`340.0
`
`-8.0%
`92.0
`
`1.1%
`90.0
`
`5.0%
`86.0
`
`-6.3%
`72.0
`
`10.8%
`347.8
`
`Source: UBS estimates, Company reports, FactSet
` % Change
`Total Canada
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`2.0
`0.0
`0.0
`2.0
`0.0
`
`2.0
`0.0
`0.0
`2.0
`0.0
`
`2.0
`0.0
`0.0
`2.0
`0.0
`
`2.0
`0.0
`0.0
`2.0
`0.0
`
`15.0
`3.8
`4.5
`5.7
`1.0
`
`2.0
`0.0
`0.0
`2.0
`0.0
`
`2.0
`0.0
`0.0
`2.0
`0.0
`
`271.4%33.3%75.0%
`7.0
`2.5
`3.0
`1.0
`0.5
`
`15.6
`2.8
`6.5
`3.2
`3.1
`
`4.0
`1.3
`1.5
`0.7
`0.5
`
`-7.4%
`16.7
`5.0
`2.7
`0.0
`3.7
`5.3
`
`-7.4%
`16.7
`5.0
`2.7
`0.0
`3.7
`5.3
`
`-8.3%-18.2%-20.0%-13.3%11.1%51.5%
`16.7
`5.0
`2.7
`0.0
`3.7
`5.3
`
`16.7
`5.0
`2.7
`0.0
`3.7
`5.3
`
`62.0
`18.0
`10.0
`0.0
`14.0
`20.0
`
`18.0
`5.0
`2.0
`0.0
`4.0
`7.0
`
`18.0
`4.0
`3.0
`0.0
`4.0
`7.0
`
`11.0
`5.0
`2.0
`0.0
`2.0
`2.0
`
`0.0%
`15.0
`4.0
`3.0
`0.0
`4.0
`4.0
`
`-9.9%
`53.0
`13.1
`0.0
`0.0
`0.8
`2.3
`1.0
`3.0
`2.0
`4.0
`4.0
`10.0
`9.0
`2.0
`1.9
`
`28.3%
`71.5
`6.0
`6.0
`0.0
`27.5
`32.0
`
`2.6%
`260.7
`58.7
`0.0
`0.0
`0.0
`8.0
`4.0
`10.0
`6.0
`14.0
`15.0
`39.0
`43.0
`54.0
`9.0
`
` % Change
` Subtotal Aesthetic Sales
`Dysport
`Restylane/Perlane Franchise
`Selphyl/Solta/Other
`Sculptra
`Aesthetics
`
` % Change
` Subtotal Consumer Sales
`Bausch & Lomb - Solutions
`J&J Brands (acquired 9/28/12)
`Dr. Renaud (derm business)
`Swiss National
`Afexa Canada
`Consumer
`
` % Change
` Subtotal Rx Sales
`Other (incl Bausch)
`Altace/Altace HCT
`Jublia (July 2014 Launch)
`Xerese (Mid 2013 launch)
`Nitoman/Xenazine
`Ralivia
`Qvar
`Zyclara/Aldara
`Glumetza
`Zovirax
`Dermik Canada
`Tiazac XC
`Wellbutrin XL
`Cesamet
`Rx
`Canada
`
`ROW Developed Markets
`
`2020E
`
`2019E
`
`2018E
`
`2017E
`
`2016E
`
`2015E
`
`4Q15E
`
`3Q15A
`
`1Q15A2Q15A
`
`2014
`
`4Q14
`
`3Q14
`
`2Q14
`
`1Q14
`
`2013
`
`Figure 9: Valeant Pharmaceuticals – Annual Sales ($M, 2013-2020E)
`
`
`
`
`
`Valeant Pharmaceuticals International 19 October 2015
`
`(cid:4)(cid:5)(cid:3)10
`
`
`
`Page 10 of 20
`
`

`
`
`
`4.2%
`
`47.8%19.1%
`6.1%
`8,950.310,656.610,947.611,513.912,002.712,739.6
`
`5.2%
`
`2.7%
`
`2,720.1
`
`2,290.7
`
`2,208.3
`
`4.3%
`1,869.9
`
`4.3%
`1,792.8
`
`4.3%
`1,719.4
`
`5.6%
`1,648.1
`
`+3-5%+3-5%
`5.7%
`1,560.6
`
`-1.4%-10.0%
`1,476.5
`400.0
`
`Co. Guidance
`
`-9.5%-15.9%
`342.9
`384.8
`
`0.0
`
`0.0
`
`0.0
`
`0.0
`
`0.0
`
`0.0
`
`0.0
`
`0.0
`
`0.0
`
`0.0
`
`1,869.9
`
`1,792.8
`
`1,719.4
`
`1,648.1
`
`1,560.6
`
`1,476.5
`
`400.0
`
`342.9
`
`384.8
`
`348.8
`
`7.0%
`296.5
`0.0
`296.5
`
`3.0%
`955.1
`
`4.2%
`236.0
`179.7
`56.3
`
`7.0%
`277.1
`0.0
`277.1
`
`3.0%
`927.3
`
`4.2%
`226.4
`172.8
`53.6
`
`7.0%
`258.9
`0.0
`258.9
`
`3.0%
`900.3
`
`4.2%
`217.2
`166.1
`51.1
`
`8.0%
`242.0
`0.0
`242.0
`
`5.0%
`874.1
`
`5.0%
`208.4
`159.8
`48.6
`
`0.0%-16.2%10.0%
`224.1
`60.0
`0.0
`0.0
`224.1
`60.0
`
`203.7
`0.0
`203.7
`
`7.0%
`832.4
`
`5.0%
`198.5
`152.1
`46.3
`
`3.9%-6.9%
`778.0
`210.2
`
`-8.0%
`180.0
`
`0.0%-11.3%
`189.0
`48.0
`144.9
`37.0
`44.1
`11.0
`
`54.8
`0.0
`54.8
`
`48.0
`0.0
`48.0
`
`48.0
`37.0
`11.0
`
`185.8
`
`45.0
`34.0
`11.0
`
`2020E
`
`2019E
`
`2018E
`
`2017E
`
`2016E
`
`2015E
`
`4Q15E
`
`3Q15A
`
`1,731.2
`
`80.0%85.2%86.3%34.5%11.3%44.7%
`6,054.1
`4,184.6
`
`1,442.2
`
`1,400.4
`
`1,724.9
`
`1,486.6
`
`98.2%238.2%216.4%41.0%-14.8%61.1%-13.4%
`348.8
`1,018.7
`
`425.3
`
`402.6
`
`1,641.1
`
`405.6
`
`407.6
`
`
`
`
`
`
`
`Source: UBS estimates, Company reports, FactSet
`
` % Change
`Total Developed Markets Sales
`
` % Change
`Total ROW Developed Markets Sales
`
`9.3
`
`3.4
`
`0.0
`
`2.8
`
`3.1
`
`11.0
`
`JV Sales
`
`1,631.8
`
`402.2
`
`407.6
`
`422.5
`
`399.5
`
`1,007.7
`
`Total ROW Developed Markets Sales (Excl JV Sales)
`
`94.4%-20.0%-10.2%-34.0%
`40.9
`243.0
`0.0
`0.0
`40.9
`243.0
`
`60.0
`0.0
`60.0
`
`62.0
`0.0
`62.0
`
`61.0
`0.0
`61.0
`
`60.0
`0.0
`60.0
`
`125.0
`20.0
`105.0
`
`132.7%-14.6%-8.4%
`202.0
`
`835.8
`
`202.2
`
`195.6
`
`220.5
`
`217.5
`
`359.2
`
`9.2%-10.0%-12.7%-20.0%
`48.0
`213.0
`37.0
`171.0
`11.0
`42.0
`
`1.6%25.0%10.0%20.0%-12.7%
`48.0
`195.0
`37.0
`178.0
`11.0
`17.0
`
`55.0
`45.0
`10.0
`
`50.0
`40.0
`10.0
`
`60.0
`49.0
`11.0
`
` % Change
`Total N Asia
`Other
`Japan
`N Asia
`
` % Change
`Western Europe
`
` % Change
`Total Australia
`Other
`Bausch & Lomb
`Australia
`
`ROW Developed Markets
`
`1Q15A2Q15A
`
`201