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`EP Vantage: Eliquis projected sales off 60% for 2014 - FiercePharma
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`Topics: Financials
`EP Vantage: Eliquis projected sales off 60% for
`2014
`Evaluation shows analysts' hopes for anticoagulent fall as sales remain weak
`October 18, 2013 | By Eric Palmer
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`When Eliquis was first released to the market, execs with partners Bristol-Myers
`Squibb ($BMY) and Pfizer ($PFE) cautioned that it would have a
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`slow release. It was the third entrant in the warfarin alternative
`market behind Boehringer Ingelheim's Pradaxa and Johnson &
`Johnson ($JNJ) and Bayer's Xarelto. But data were on their side
`and they, and analysts, predicted big things for the new drug.
`However, an evaluation of data from drug information specialist
`EvaluatePharma finds that optimism is quickly waning as sales for
`Eliquis remain weak.
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`According to an EP Vantage report provided in abbreviated form to
`FiercePharma, analysts' predictions for 2014 sales of the
`anticoagulant have fallen 60% in the last 12 months. They now stand at $491
`million. That is as projections for 2014 sales of Xarelto have surged by 81% and
`60% in the respective territories for J&J and Bayer, to $1 billion and $1.4 billion. EP
`Vantage believes the dosing advantage and broader label for that drug "might have
`been underestimated."
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`While it was late to the market, the advantages of Eliquis had led analysts to
`believe it would take the market by storm. Eliquis and Pradaxa are both better than
`warfarin in preventing stroke. Only Eliquis, however, reduced major bleeding over
`warfarin and improved mortality. In fact, the Institute for Safe Medication Practices
`(ISMP) this week flagged its latest set of side-effect reports to the FDA, putting
`anticoagulant drugs at the top with Pradaxa leading the pack.
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`EP Vantage: Eliquis projected sales off 60% for 2014 - FiercePharma
`The EP Vantage evaluation points out that Goldman Sachs analysts were so
`excited by the superiority of Eliquis that when the FDA approved the drug, they
`predicted first-year sales of $350 million would be a "low hurdle." That looks to be
`way off now. Consensus for 2013 currently stands at $129 million, and that may
`not be reachable, given that it sold only $12 million in the second quarter. That was
`even worse than the disappointing $17 million posted for the first quarter. The
`report points out that in their first full year on the market after being approved for
`stroke prevention, global sales of Pradaxa were $875 million and $582 million for
`Xarelto.
`
`2/9/2016
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`The lousy sales in the second quarter are well known to BMS investors, who had
`to endure the company cutting full-year revenue and earnings forecasts at the
`same time it announced the remarkably weak sales for Eliquis.
`
`Supporters point out that it takes time for the benefits of the drug to be fully
`understood and that it can be really difficult to get doctors and patients to change
`from a protocol they are accustomed to. But EP Vantage says it now appears that
`is going to take a whole lot longer than analysts first expected.
`
`- read the EvaluatePharma Vantage Point article
`
`Special Report: Top 15 Drug Launch Superstars - Xarelto
`
`Related Articles:
`BMS, Pfizer say FDA to review Eliquis for new use
`Faltering Eliquis leaves Bristol-Myers' Q2 sales in the lurch
`Which new drugs promise to shake up markets the most?
`Armed with EU stroke approval, Pfizer, BMS talk up Eliquis' edge over rivals
`Safety group flags bleeding reports on Pradaxa, Xarelto and old standby warfarin
`
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`Filed Under Bristol-Myers Squibb, Eliquis, Pfizer
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