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`TRANSACTONSOF SOCIETY
`
`PHftOSOPHKAL THE ROYAL
`
`Gloom and doom The future of marine capture fisheries
`
`Serge
`
`Garcia and Richard
`
`Grainger
`
`Phil Trans
`
`Soc
`
`2005 360 dol 1O.1098/rstb.2004.1580 published 29 January2005
`
`References
`
`Article cited
`
`in
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`http//rstb.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/36O/1453/21
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`
`PFHLOSCPHICAL
`TRANSCTICNS
`
`TIlE ROYALLR
`13j
`SOCETY
`
`PhiL
`
`Trans
`
`Soc
`
`2005 360
`dci 10.1098/rstb.2004
`
`146
`
`1580
`
`Published
`
`online 29 January 2005
`
`Serge
`
`Gloom and doom The future of marine capture fisheries
`Garcia and RichardJ
`Grainger
`of the United Nations FAO T/iale
`Organization
`00100 Rome
`
`Department of Fisheries Food andAgriculture
`
`delle Terme di Caracalla
`
`Italy
`
`Predicting
`
`global
`
`fisheries is high-order challenge
`
`but predictions
`
`Past
`
`forecasts
`
`trends
`
`and perspectives
`present
`vest state of stocks supply and demand
`and forecasting
`as the basis for new forecasts
`will be conditioned by the political
`
`social and economic
`
`of key parameters
`
`performance
`
`fisheries
`
`have been made and updates are needed
`of the fisheriesincluding potential har
`reviewed in detail
`and governanceare
`trade fishing technology
`assessment The future of marine capture
`the world within which they operate
`evolution
`of
`The
`for the future world are reviewed with the emphasis on fisheries
`economic
`demography environment
`are described Outlooks
`
`recent
`
`Consequently
`global
`main driving forces e.g global
`mation
`
`scenarios
`
`development
`
`aquaculture
`
`technology
`energy ethics including
`the fishery sector The conclusion
`
`aspect of
`
`puts
`
`these elements in perspective
`
`sonal
`
`interpretation
`
`of
`
`the possible
`
`swered questions
`
`of direct
`
`relevance
`
`future pathway
`in shaping that future
`
`of fisheries
`
`the uncertainty
`
`public
`
`awareness
`
`infor
`
`are provided
`
`for each
`
`and offers the authors per
`it and the still unan
`about
`
`Keywords
`
`future governance
`
`scenarios fisheries
`
`sustainability
`
`is not unique to fisheries
`
`agricultural
`
`freshwater
`
`INTRODUCTION
`of FAO in 1945 the world has evolved
`affecting what
`and the change
`dramatically
`society wants or could achieve
`it does in practice
`have
`
`Since
`
`the creation
`
`is accelerating
`
`and what
`
`Fisheries
`
`in particular
`
`undergone
`
`revolutionary
`
`This grim picture
`and
`
`as well
`forestry
`resources
`phere are also in similar if not more serious
`ing situation WRI 2002a FAO 2003
`are still evolving
`
`Fisheries
`
`in various
`
`as
`
`the atmos
`
`and threaten
`
`at varying
`
`mutations through
`
`progressive
`
`technological
`
`innovation
`
`paces
`
`in different
`
`places
`
`exponential
`
`development
`
`of fishing capacity geographical
`
`expansion
`
`development
`
`of an intense
`
`international
`
`trade
`
`and
`
`an innovative
`
`legal
`
`framework
`
`the
`
`982 Law of
`
`the
`
`nal
`
`and
`
`contextual
`
`driving
`
`forces
`
`and uncertain
`
`Institutional
`
`Sea Convention
`
`Fisheries
`
`have
`
`increased
`
`their contri
`
`alize owing to the necessarily
`
`bution to human livelihood
`
`and food security maintaining
`
`plex
`
`socio-economic
`
`and
`
`effectiveness
`
`of what
`
`has been done
`
`or improving the international
`in human lives
`
`terms of exchange
`and environment
`
`paying
`
`and
`
`degradation
`suffered more than advisable
`
`toll
`
`heavy
`Most
`
`fishery resources
`some collapsed affecting
`and profoundly modif\jing
`
`the sectors
`
`economic
`
`viability
`the ecosystem sometimes per
`to
`
`haps
`
`irreversibly
`
`Owing
`
`genuine
`
`public
`
`of environmental
`
`enhanced
`
`through
`the romantic image of
`
`the activism
`
`the courageous
`beautiful but treacher
`
`and
`
`fisher
`
`fighting
`
`against
`
`the generous
`
`ous sea has been
`and
`tarnished
`fishers
`are
`progressively
`now often presented as blind greedy and irresponsible pre
`impact on the marine eco
`dators
`inflicting major negative
`
`concern
`NGOs
`adventurous
`
`ways
`by inter
`and their future shaped
`and pressures is both
`has been
`complex
`progress
`are slow to mated
`impressive but the expected outcomes
`slow response time of com
`The
`systems
`ecological
`cannot be easily mea
`for with high
`
`further
`
`critical
`
`action
`
`is called
`
`sured and yet
`
`socio-economic
`
`short-term
`
`costs for politicians
`
`potential
`profusion of miraculous prescriptions
`by well
`is provided
`experience is still lim
`doctors but practical
`and well
`
`intentioned
`
`ited Exacerbated
`
`by the growing
`
`orchestrated
`
`media pressure societal
`
`impatience
`
`grows with its aware
`
`ness
`
`cal
`
`as hard-pressed
`issues and alternative pathways
`
`policyinakers
`
`attempt to identify criti
`
`In this context
`
`the present
`
`value
`
`of
`
`information about
`
`the future increases
`
`significantly
`
`providing the incentives
`
`of the enterprise
`
`fisheries
`
`system
`The scientific
`
`scriptions
`
`Johnston
`
`Alverson
`
`Newton
`
`diagnoses of
`abundant pre
`the widespread management
`Larkin 1972 Stevenson
`1973
`for improvement
`1992 FAO 1993 Walters
`1995 Garcia
`1992
`Larkin 1994 Garcia
`Grainger 1997 Garcia
`1997 Mace 1997 Williams 1998 Sutinen
`Soboil 2003
`
`literature contains
`
`numerous
`
`failures
`
`and
`
`the shortcomings
`for forecasting
`despite
`Chapman 1970 held that
`future
`developments
`was
`
`facilitated
`
`by the fact
`
`the task of forecasting
`
`term global
`
`trends
`
`sistent However
`
`tended to be slow persistent
`all modern futurists would
`
`that
`
`long-
`
`and con
`
`agree with
`
`Gallopin that
`
`it would be suicidal
`
`to consider
`
`the future as
`
`simple extrapolation
`deduced
`
`instance
`
`of
`
`the present
`
`Niels
`
`Bohr
`
`ironically
`
`that all
`
`prediction
`
`for
`
`is
`
`difficult
`particularly
`1989 and predicting
`
`socio-ecological
`
`about
`future
`the
`cited by Pope
`the future of any human activity and
`system is generally
`recognized as precari
`
`Author
`
`for correspondence
`
`serge.garciafao.org
`
`and
`ous
`tentative
`highly
`subjective
`enterprise
`1991 Gallopin 2002 Two main difficulties
`
`Larkin
`are encoun
`
`One contribution
`
`of
`
`15
`
`to
`
`Theme Issue Fisheries
`
`future
`
`tered
`
`in predicting
`
`the future of fisheries
`
`21
`
`2005 The Royal
`
`Society
`
`NEP877ITC-00681
`
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`
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`
`NEPN 2016
`
`

`
`22
`
`Garcia andR.J
`
`Graingcr
`
`Gloom and doom
`
`and underlying models It
`Forecasting methodology
`algorithm could sat
`that any mathematical
`chaotic nonlinear
`complex
`the
`
`isfactorily capture
`
`is unlikely
`
`and often undetermined
`
`nature
`
`of the fisheries
`
`socio
`
`economic
`
`and environmental
`
`cularly true at
`
`the global
`
`systems This is parti
`seem
`
`level Consequently
`
`ingly well grounded
`some of
`
`the most
`
`remain unforeseen
`
`predictions
`
`may easily fail while
`
`interesting
`
`developments might
`
`ii It
`
`is impossible to predict
`
`the future of
`
`fisheries with
`
`itself an even higher-order challenge
`
`This document deals only with marine capture
`in terms of
`
`referring
`
`only
`
`superficially
`
`to aquaculture
`
`fisheries
`
`its
`
`out
`
`reliable prediction
`
`about
`
`the future of the world
`
`opposed
`
`will affect
`
`globally negligible
`
`albeit
`
`has been experienced
`
`since
`
`locally significant
`1950
`
`and similar to
`
`the global
`
`fish
`
`If
`
`these
`
`what
`
`trade
`
`that overall
`by Ca mt until
`rot by 2040 Overall all
`and then decrease by ca
`important but
`remaining unchanged
`the main and most variable
`variations
`of
`total supply in manner that
`
`cod Godus mor/ooo
`sardine
`Sordrnoo pziclsar
`Isarengus
`spp salmon Salmo spp Alaska
`duo anchovy
`as Chilean jack
`as well
`pollock Thoragra
`chalcogramma
`Trachurus murphys3 with phase
`opposition
`2001 Predictions
`the two areas
`and falls
`in the two areas
`
`Eogrolis
`
`mackerel
`
`between
`
`IClyashtorin
`
`rises
`
`up
`in
`
`to 2040 of the respective
`the range of 520 mt indicate
`of
`species would
`
`these
`
`first
`
`2015
`
`other
`
`factors
`
`the total catch
`
`increase
`
`the
`
`species
`
`is quantitatively
`
`potential
`
`interactions
`
`It
`
`reviews
`
`past
`
`forecasts
`
`trends
`
`and
`
`tems as well
`
`outlooks
`
`for single aspects
`as more comprehensive
`
`of
`
`present
`the fishery sys
`scenarios After
`look
`
`ing briefly at
`
`the
`
`driving
`
`forces
`
`that
`
`condition world
`
`developments
`
`it reviews
`
`the future evolution
`
`available
`
`for
`
`the types of scenarios
`of the world itself and by inference for
`on the most
`
`fisheries
`
`before
`
`concluding
`
`likely pathway
`
`for
`
`the sector
`
`in the next decades
`
`PRESENTTRENDS
`
`regions
`
`and species
`
`is however
`
`likely to exacerbate
`
`the stresses
`
`on marine fish stocks
`
`from
`
`fishing
`
`and
`
`other marine
`
`or
`
`land-based
`
`activities
`
`The
`
`extent
`
`to which
`
`it will affect
`
`fisheries
`
`in the different
`
`oscillations might
`system is reactive
`enough
`not significantly
`affect availability and prices particularly
`of the worid catch
`
`in the other
`
`two-thirds
`
`as the variations
`
`consisting
`
`diversity
`
`Influences
`
`cosmic oscillations
`
`of more than 500
`species
`lower frequencies
`at
`might become evident
`
`is buffered
`
`by their
`
`e.g related to
`in the future
`
`the
`
`ocean
`
`Longer-term
`
`environment
`
`climate
`
`change will affect
`and its capacity
`
`to sustain
`
`fishery stocks
`
`and is
`
`PAST FORECASTS
`AND PERSPECTIVES
`The following
`
`review of
`
`future
`
`of
`
`fisheries
`
`to forecast
`
`the evolution
`
`recent
`
`the past attempts to predict
`our
`should provide
`way to probe
`of the sector Many of the
`capacity
`tested by time Some
`forecasts made in the past have been
`ones are still to be tested in the future
`of the most
`
`the
`
`Marine fislzeries potential
`The earliest predictions
`
`global
`
`potential
`
`harvest
`
`towards which was
`
`focused on
`
`target
`
`progress
`The
`
`of world fisheries often
`e.g MSY as
`relative measure
`of development
`22 rot in
`evolved from the precise but inaccurate
`range of 55115 mt
`950s Thompson 1951
`to
`more confusing
`1963
`in the early 1960s
`Kesteven
`range of 201000 mt in the eariy 1970s Chapman 1970
`Arnold 1972 reflecting the widening
`Sprague
`range of
`used and rapidly
`to the lar
`aftenvards
`stabilizing
`of 80100 mt made by FAQ in the
`gely adopted forecast
`1980 1984 More
`early 1970s Gulland 1972 Robinson
`Garcia 1996 estimated
`such poten
`recently Grainger
`to be co 100 mt with minimum of 80 mt and
`an
`unlikely maximumof 125 mt Both Gulland
`and Chapman
`by Ca 1015 years
`underestimated
`the time needed
`to reach the potential2
`underestimated
`
`estimates
`
`the eariy
`
`methods
`
`tial
`
`sector
`
`by the
`
`the rate at
`
`might increase
`
`or decrease
`
`not yet clear
`Productivity
`Ecosystem bound
`
`significantly
`
`aries may be
`
`and
`
`change
`
`polluted
`
`facilitates
`
`Boucher
`
`may
`composition
`displaced
`species
`2002 In
`e.g Blanchard
`remarkably
`areas oxygen depletion will be aggravated parti
`to the
`the flow of pollutants
`if flooding
`cularly
`sea Fisheries infrastructures may have to be displaced at
`high cost Fisheries
`e.g small-scale
`fish
`lacking mobility
`flows will be modi
`the most Freshwater
`eries might suffer
`fied New diseases may be
`changes will occur more
`enced
`
`introduced
`
`Assuming
`
`such
`
`slowly
`
`than the
`
`already
`
`experi
`
`natural
`
`variations
`
`there
`
`should be little additional
`
`impact
`
`on supply/demand
`
`and prices However
`
`the exist
`
`ence
`
`of
`
`flexible management
`ments between
`
`access
`
`agree
`
`neighbouring
`
`the eventual
`
`species
`
`systems and
`would facilitate
`countries
`the
`at aL 1995 More practi
`adaptation to change Everett
`cannot yet be accounted for but
`impact
`cally
`must he regarded as major source of surprise
`Non-conventional
`are often mentioned
`an
`as
`Both Chapman 1970 and
`that
`of
`
`additional
`
`Gulland
`
`krill
`
`source of potential
`1972 mentioned
`use
`proper
`100 rot lantern fishes and squids might raise the poten
`of marine
`to 200
`rot In the early
`fisheries
`1970s
`Arnold 1972 considered
`new
`in the Indian and Antarctic
`
`tial
`
`Sprague
`
`fisheries
`
`that opening
`Oceans
`
`improving
`
`decrease
`
`levels of
`
`the
`
`also
`
`possibly
`1999
`Natural oscillations
`
`serious
`
`management
`
`nificant
`
`impact
`
`on the resources
`
`result
`
`and
`in faster depletion
`of ca 5560 years have been detected
`and North
`such
`
`Pacific
`
`for
`
`species
`
`PhiL Trans
`
`Soc
`
`2005
`
`in ecosystem productivity
`sig
`and the fisheries and may
`slower
`recovery Oscillations
`in the North Atlantic
`
`which
`
`resources
`
`would
`
`pressure but
`annual expansion rate of fisheries
`
`rightly foresaw the
`
`intensively
`
`exploited
`
`under
`
`growing
`
`fishing
`
`sharp
`
`decrease
`
`in the
`
`Deep-sea
`
`resources not
`at the time are probably pooriy repre
`an unknown but
`sented in these estimates They represent
`and for those
`
`limited
`
`additional
`
`potential
`
`in the high seas
`problem Moore
`
`and
`
`harvesting
`
`lower
`
`trophic
`
`management
`could produce as
`ocean
`food chain marine fisheries alone
`50100 mt of octopus
`much
`400 mt
`and
`as
`including
`squid 5075 mt of krill
`and 1001 50 mt of mesopelagic
`and deep-sea fish They deduced
`that mobilization
`would take 4050 years
`latter type of resources
`The already
`by 20102020
`well developed
`now hampered by the inter
`of cephalopods
`
`materialize
`
`exploitation
`
`of
`
`the
`
`i.e would
`
`have
`
`national
`
`ban on large-scale
`
`driftnet
`
`fishing
`
`does not seem
`
`able to uphold
`
`that
`
`have
`
`been
`
`forecast
`
`remains
`
`forecast Krill and mesopelagic
`used and
`only moderately
`to be tested Considering the experience
`
`fishes
`
`the validity of
`
`the
`
`as herring Glupco
`
`acquired
`
`since
`
`the
`
`1970s
`
`and
`
`the
`
`potential
`
`problems
`
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`
`related to the integrity of the ecosystems
`trophic chain the
`is considered as very
`
`of unconventional
`
`resources
`
`potential
`
`limited
`
`have been very significantly
`Large cetaceans
`human hunting leading
`
`to thc cxtinction
`
`of
`
`affected
`
`by
`fcw spccics
`
`and quasi-cxtinction
`
`for many othcrs Following dccadcs
`
`of
`
`protection
`
`however
`
`and
`
`various
`
`loopholes allowing
`
`cies
`
`several
`
`species
`
`of incrcascd
`
`ing that
`
`con
`
`management
`despite
`some hunting to continue on some spe
`and populations are still very abundant
`or have recov
`e.g minke whales Balaenoptera
`acnrostrata
`crcd to high abundancc
`levels This has lcd to thc qucstion
`for human food argu
`or rcncwcd
`exploitation
`these animals compete with humans
`for food and
`than humans
`indeed harvest more fishes from the oceans
`do According
`to Tamura 2003 marine cetaceans
`sume at least 249434 mt of seafood
`and their consump
`from 66% to 144% of human
`
`tion of
`
`fishcs
`
`rcprcscnts
`harvest Others arguc that
`human
`and cetacean harvest
`
`the spccics
`
`composition
`
`of thc
`
`overlap
`
`only partly
`
`and the
`
`Gloom and doom
`
`Garcia
`
`and
`
`Graingcr
`
`23
`
`State of resources
`FAQ has produced
`Since 1974
`the conventional
`compilation of
`
`containing
`
`quasi-biennial
`
`report
`
`assessments
`
`indicates
`
`that
`
`stocks
`
`and
`
`other
`
`resource
`
`aggre
`
`latest
`
`analysis
`
`of
`
`the
`
`situation Garcia
`
`ct at
`
`for world fish
`available
`gates The
`2004
`in 2003
`the
`approximately half
`at or close to their maximum
`worlds stocks
`are exploited
`ca 25% of them are exploited
`and
`either below of above
`Thc trcnds
`such maximum figurc
`for 19742003
`show
`
`that
`
`thc proportion of stocks
`decrcascd with timc whcrcas
`
`cxploited
`
`below thcir capacity
`
`thosc
`
`exploitcd
`
`above
`
`it
`
`as one would expect owing to growing
`increased
`steadily
`fishing pressure No improvement
`The pro
`is yet visible
`their maximum level of
`at about
`portion of stocks
`exploited
`at ca 50%
`production has been stable
`sustainable
`An update of
`of the fishery
`the comprehensive
`analysis
`by FAQ since the early
`time-series
`Garcia 1996 is given
`in figure
`fisheries pro
`decreased rapidly
`
`statistics
`
`collected
`
`undertaken
`
`by Grainger
`
`This shows
`
`that
`
`undeveloped
`than their potential
`
`resource
`
`950s
`
`to
`
`argument
`
`is far from closed
`
`It
`
`resource
`
`ducing much less
`zero by the middle of
`ii developing
`fisheries with increasing
`but still producing
`landings
`until 19701990
`than thcir potential incrcascd
`and
`iii mature rcsourcc
`
`dccrcascd
`
`fishcries
`
`nearly
`
`the
`
`1970s
`
`less
`
`thcn
`
`producing
`the 1980s and seem to have
`until
`iv senescent
`producing
`then
`resources
`than their historical maximum increased
`1950
`at co 30% If we include
`
`argued against
`
`that
`
`general
`
`reopening
`
`increase
`
`the availability of
`
`fishery
`
`and
`is being proposed
`of whaling would
`This would
`
`resources
`
`require
`
`reaching
`
`global
`
`consensus which
`
`today seems
`
`unlikcly
`
`and unilatcral
`
`actions
`
`havc alrcady
`
`bccn takcn
`
`thcir potential
`
`increased
`
`decreased since
`
`consistently
`
`less
`
`Ontlook
`
`There
`
`is widespread
`
`agreement
`
`that
`
`considering
`
`the
`
`regularly
`
`decade
`
`since
`
`stabilizing
`
`perhaps during the
`
`last
`
`in this category
`
`the reco
`
`officially
`
`with all
`
`their
`
`declared marine fisheries landings
`ca 8090 mt the estimated
`discards pre
`shortcomings
`than 10 mt9 thc amount likcly to bc presently
`scntly less
`caught by IUU fishing and
`the impossibility
`of optimizing
`the production of all species simultaneously the most
`of conventional marine species 801 00 mt has
`some time ago probably
`been
`reached
`in the
`in the next 2030 years.6
`fish
`
`potential
`
`indeed
`
`likely
`
`identified
`
`in this
`
`for
`
`the
`
`first
`
`analysis
`in production follow
`showing an increase
`low landings this percentage
`
`ing
`
`vering
`resources
`time i.e those
`period of consistently
`3236%
`reaches
`The two analyses
`
`minologies owing to the different
`
`source
`
`referred
`
`to above
`
`use different
`and meth
`
`data
`
`ter
`
`that
`
`global
`
`used
`and
`odologies
`possibly
`results The correspondence
`between
`
`the
`
`interpretation
`
`of
`
`the
`
`is given
`
`in table
`
`To facili
`
`the results yielded
`
`1970s and is unlikely
`to change
`Thcrc
`is also broad agrccmcnt
`of that needed
`
`ing capacity
`
`is in excess
`
`thc prcscnt
`
`sustainable
`
`Producing
`
`present
`
`pattern
`
`catches
`significantly more would
`of fishing be dramatically
`
`tate thc comparison
`
`by the two
`
`to extract potential
`
`approaches
`
`the second
`
`set of
`
`results has been
`
`re-elabo
`
`require
`
`that
`
`the
`
`modified signifi
`
`rated
`figure
`The pictures
`obtained from the two approaches may be
`with caution considering
`that
`the stock
`assess
`
`compared
`
`cantly
`
`increasing
`
`fishing pressure
`
`on already
`
`depressed top
`
`prcdators
`
`rcducing
`
`thc
`
`abundancc
`
`of
`
`thosc
`
`presently
`
`abundant
`
`cctaccans
`
`to rcducc
`
`thcir consumption
`
`furthcr
`
`ments are available
`
`available
`
`until 2003 while
`and the total periods
`
`the statistics
`
`are only
`
`covered are dif
`up to 2002
`figure 3a and for
`the results for 2003
`ferent Nonetheless
`the common period 19742000
`lb and
`3b are
`figures
`similar The analysis
`tends to give higher
`of catch
`values 10% for underexploited
`and
`overexploited
`--20% for fully exploited
`lower ones
`show no real
`Both analyses
`in overfishing
`
`stocks
`
`and
`
`stocks
`
`statistics
`
`improvement
`
`altering
`
`the ecosystem species
`the abundance
`
`composition
`
`by increasing
`
`an increase
`
`in their
`
`to catch
`
`of prey thereby allowing
`technology would be needed
`unconventional
`
`harvest
`
`Improved
`
`and
`
`process
`
`fish spccics
`
`and krill
`
`resources
`
`e.g mesopelagic
`to turn them into acceptable
`
`edible
`
`products
`
`This would howcvcr
`
`acccntuatc
`
`the fishing
`
`although
`
`the statistical
`
`modest
`
`recovery
`
`figure
`
`trends
`
`point
`
`to the beginning
`top right angle
`
`of
`
`down-the-food-chain
`
`strategy
`
`pushing it
`
`to its limits with
`
`uncertain ecological
`
`consequences
`
`including
`
`unstable
`
`hyper-fluctuating
`
`ecosystems
`
`driven
`
`by climatic
`
`varia
`
`Ontlook
`
`The
`
`pressure
`
`on
`
`the
`
`increasing
`
`and
`
`tions with local
`
`of glut
`
`and
`and scarcity
`possibly
`as unconsumed
`
`areas
`
`in coastal
`
`cycles
`massive oxygen depletion
`and rots Industry may adapt
`and pro
`flexible multipurpose catching
`to collect and process mass
`managing
`for human
`food
`and
`animal
`
`plankton
`
`scttles
`
`situation
`
`through
`
`cessing
`
`technology
`
`ive
`
`plankton
`
`biomasses
`
`itself
`
`to thc
`
`resources
`keeps
`yet The
`whether
`or chmatic conditions
`
`shows
`
`no
`
`sign
`
`of abatement
`
`slowly
`
`percentage
`
`of
`
`stocks
`
`recovering
`
`improved management
`aging but is still
`phenomenon
`too recent
`draw hard
`conclusions Many individual
`them for which
`detailed
`
`fisheries
`
`exploiting
`
`increasing
`
`to
`
`owing
`is encour
`
`from which to
`
`stocks
`
`and
`
`the
`
`data
`
`are not
`
`fisheries
`
`It
`
`is doubtful
`
`though
`
`that
`
`such
`
`path will be globally
`
`acceptable
`
`PhiL Trans
`
`Soc
`
`2005
`
`available
`
`would
`
`show
`
`on
`particularly
`much more depressing
`
`coastal
`
`small-scale
`
`picture
`
`simple
`
`NEP877ITC-00681
`
`104
`
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`
`NEPN 2016
`
`

`
`24
`
`Garcia andR.J
`
`Graingcr
`
`Gloom and doom
`
`52%
`
`60
`
`50
`
`40
`
`30
`
`so
`
`0-
`
`20
`
`10
`
`60
`
`50
`
`40
`
`30
`
`so
`
`o- 20
`
`10
`
`ODR
`
`11%
`
`1970
`
`1980
`
`1990
`
`2000
`
`Figure
`
`State of world fish stock items in
`
`2003 and in
`
`19742003
`
`underexploited
`
`moderately exploited
`
`fully
`
`exploited
`
`overfished
`
`depleted 14 recovering
`
`developing
`
`stocks
`
`one Monitoring and
`and elaboration
`
`diagnosis
`
`of
`
`the state
`
`of
`
`advice will
`
`continue
`
`of management
`to be complicated by natural oscillations and climate
`systems wiil become more
`Management
`dicting changes but are stiil
`ness needed
`
`change
`in pre
`competent
`from the type of responsive
`
`far
`
`to adjust
`
`rapidly to systematic
`
`forecasts
`
`0-f
`
`Aquaculture
`
`It
`
`is impossible to discuss
`
`the
`
`without
`
`limited
`
`future
`
`50
`
`50
`
`CX
`
`Cs
`
`Cs
`
`Cs
`
`-H
`ce
`Cs
`
`50
`or
`Cs
`
`es
`Cs
`
`50
`
`Cs
`
`future
`of capture fisheries
`The production of con
`to aquaculture
`referring
`to 80
`ventional capture fisheries being naturally
`gap between
`100 mt the large
`supply
`predictahle
`and demand will condition the future of
`fisheries in many
`
`ways
`
`influencing
`
`prices
`
`incentives
`
`for development
`
`management
`
`Aquaculture
`
`costs compliance
`is considered
`in all
`
`reliable
`
`sustainable
`
`additional
`
`mediated
`
`summarized
`
`and
`
`state
`
`of
`
`resources
`
`forecasts
`
`as
`
`well
`21
`is of
`
`the only
`source of supply In
`The Economist August
`2003
`review
`this as If the past history of agriculture
`the
`aquaculture will surely find
`way to meet
`any guide
`for fish This sector has indeed demon
`worlds demand
`two
`
`phases
`
`of major marine fishery resources
`Percentage
`of development with five-year intervals
`undeveloped
`developing
`mature
`recovering Modified from Grainger
`
`in
`
`1950
`
`Garcia
`
`Figure
`
`various
`
`200
`
`senescent
`2004
`
`of observed trends
`leads at best
`extrapolation
`stotos qoo situation with Ca 40% of fully exploited
`30% of overfished
`and underfished stocks
`
`to
`
`poor
`
`stocks
`
`respectively
`
`strated
`
`decades
`
`strong
`and will be
`
`potential
`
`for growth
`
`strong
`
`regulator
`
`during the past
`of the supply chain
`
`in the future It will
`
`therefore
`
`be
`
`central conditioning
`
`and several unexpected
`of highly stressed
`collapses
`in governance frameworks
`and the decline
`
`stocks
`
`during the past
`rate of large ves
`
`Improvements
`
`three
`
`sels
`
`global
`
`decades
`
`in building
`2g have not yet had
`state of stocks
`even
`though
`
`see
`
`any repercussion
`some countries
`
`on the
`
`show
`
`improvement
`signs of
`One concern is
`
`that having depleted
`
`large valuable
`
`stocks
`
`fishing has
`
`redirected
`
`effort
`
`and
`
`added
`
`lot of
`
`it on
`
`other
`
`species
`
`was
`
`some
`lower down the food web The strategy
`advocated in the
`970s to increase
`production Spra
`
`fisheries
`
`gue
`
`in catch
`
`by
`
`the topthrough production of high-value
`
`carni
`
`vore species
`
`luxury items
`
`for the high-end market
`
`factor of the future
`
`of marine
`
`fisheries
`
`and
`
`its growing
`
`cooling agent
`
`in the price
`
`chain reaction
`
`leading
`
`to
`
`functioning as
`production
`formation process
`and
`
`and
`
`in the
`
`overfishing
`overcapacity
`supplies
`come from an increase
`in the number of countries
`
`Increased
`
`will
`
`joining
`
`an expansion
`the production process
`vated and
`the processes in yield per
`an intensification
`unit of area or volume The supply gap might be filled
`in two ways
`by aquaculture
`
`of
`
`the
`
`areas culti
`
`of
`
`Arnold 1972 The consequence
`for change
`and
`for the ecosystem were noted
`composition
`implications
`by FAO in the mid-1990s
`Newton
`and
`in 2000 Garcia
`1997 The phenomenon
`9957 and hy Caddy
`
`was
`
`thoroughly
`
`investigated
`
`by
`
`Pauly ot in
`The
`
`pressure
`
`in support
`
`of
`
`stock
`
`rebuilding
`
`only
`
`Garibaldi 2000
`can
`
`increase
`
`exponentially
`
`as
`
`fisheries
`
`issues
`
`become
`
`environ
`
`mental
`
`ones
`
`and
`
`significant
`
`improvement
`
`should
`
`be expec
`
`ted certainly
`
`in the
`
`developed world
`
`perhaps
`
`in the
`
`PhiL Trans
`
`Soc
`
`2005
`
`requiring
`
`large
`
`quantities
`
`of
`
`fishmeal
`
`or other high
`
`protein meal
`
`for their culture causing
`
`rise in fish-
`
`meal and oil prices
`
`and
`
`creating
`
`further
`
`incentives
`
`to
`
`over-harvesting
`As these
`
`small
`
`pelagic
`
`tend to be also
`
`and other prey species
`food for the poorest
`staple
`this development might lead to direct compe
`tition with them for food species
`
`people
`
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`
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`
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`
`NEPN 2016
`
`

`
`Gloom and doom
`
`Garcia
`
`and
`
`Grainger
`
`25
`
`Table
`
`Correspondence between
`
`development
`
`stages and their relation with MSY
`
`method
`
`categories
`
`stock asscssments
`
`undcrexploitcd
`
`moderatcly cxploited
`
`fully
`
`exploitcd
`
`ovcrfishcd
`
`and
`
`rceovering
`
`landing
`
`trends
`
`relation to
`maximum
`
`production
`
`undeveloped
`well below it
`
`developing
`
`mature
`
`approaching
`
`it
`
`at or close to it
`
`depleted
`
`senescent
`
`below it
`
`recovering
`coming back to it
`
`trcotis
`
`is
`
`landis
`
`lj..x.ss\.l
`
`Is
`
`34
`
`31 Oh
`
`oo
`
`444
`
`\n.\
`
`\t
`
`State of the main world fisheries
`
`in
`
`2000 and
`
`trend Abbreviations
`
`lo.1
`
`409 4O 9.4
`
`40i
`
`o7 45.
`l4
`
`497
`
`Figure
`
`resources
`
`19522000
`
`as
`
`in figure
`
`110
`
`90
`
`80
`
`70
`51
`
`50
`
`40
`
`30-
`20
`
`10
`
`4415X154504
`
`pocentisl
`
`ehshlcooteniia
`
`45
`
`1940
`
`1990
`
`duetion of marine and freshwater
`
`organisms
`
`could exceed
`
`that
`
`from harvesting
`
`of wild stocks
`
`comparing
`
`the rapid
`
`aquaculture
`
`revolution
`
`development
`He predicted
`
`process
`
`to
`
`the
`
`pastoral
`
`Stagnation
`
`of world wild fish catch
`
`and overtaking
`
`by
`
`aquaeulture
`
`production before
`
`2020
`
`the latter not
`
`being foreseen
`ii Developments
`
`in most
`
`recent analysis
`
`in aquaculture
`
`towards better
`
`control
`
`of reproduction
`
`seaward
`
`extension
`
`of coastal
`
`aqua-
`
`1840
`
`1890
`
`2040
`
`yeais
`
`Figure
`
`Evolution
`
`and projection
`
`of marine fisheries
`
`supply
`
`ii by the bottomthrough production of low-value herbi
`the least endowed people parti
`
`vore species feeding
`
`cularly in the rural areas decreasing
`
`pressure
`
`on wild
`
`stocks of small
`
`pelagic
`
`species facilitating their trans
`formation into human food at affordable
`
`prices
`
`Larkin 1991 underlined that progress
`followed four main directions
`information sharing
`
`in aquaeulture
`
`and
`
`culture and development
`coordination between
`
`iii Growing
`
`ofpolyeulture
`
`capture
`
`fisheries and
`
`aquaeulture
`
`administration
`
`because
`
`of their linkages
`
`through the knowledge
`
`needed
`
`to develop them their
`
`interaction
`
`based pollution
`
`the threats of
`
`land-
`
`is
`
`on the market
`and
`on both This coordination issue
`is now being considered
`but
`still quasi-nonexistent
`for instance in the General Fisheries Commission for
`the Mediterranean GFCM
`1998 predict
`sector still based
`towards
`
`lvluir
`
`bceome
`
`Young
`
`global
`
`that aquaculture will
`few key species
`
`on
`
`progressively
`
`evolving
`
`the production of versatile
`
`raw material
`
`products
`
`efficient
`
`and
`
`environmental
`
`application
`
`of
`
`this
`
`knowledge
`
`about nutrition
`
`disease genetics to production ii increasing
`
`behaviour
`demand for
`
`seafood because
`
`of population increase
`
`and adoption
`
`of
`
`habits iii technological
`improvement
`storage iv reduction in costs
`con
`reliability He
`and
`transport with increased
`
`healthier
`
`feeding
`
`handling processing
`
`speed
`
`in
`
`of
`
`ductivity
`
`confirms that
`
`impact
`
`in terms of both pro
`Brummett 2003
`and to the mar
`
`if it responds to deregulation
`
`ket
`
`as other
`
`did
`
`in the twentieth
`
`agro-industries
`century
`no problem in meeting the demand
`consumer
`
`that
`
`preferences
`
`will
`
`aquaeulture will have
`They
`
`challenge
`
`believe
`
`shape
`
`the sector that globalization will condition
`and global
`low-cost
`favouring larger units
`
`sources
`
`survival
`
`such as
`
`sidered
`
`that within
`
`only
`
`few decades
`
`cultured
`
`pro
`
`cage salmon or tilapia and pond catfish or shrimp and that
`
`PhiL Trans
`
`Soc
`
`2005
`
`NEP877ITC-00681
`
`106
`
`JX-0056.006
`
`NEPN 2016
`
`

`
`26
`
`Garcia andR.J
`
`Graingcr
`
`Gloom and doom
`
`ar
`
`rs
`
`to to
`
`integration with fisheries will
`
`be essential
`
`for harmonious
`
`co-development
`areas which
`
`aquaculture
`
`of the supply chain
`
`particularly
`
`in coastal
`
`offer
`
`large
`
`potential
`
`for the expansion
`
`of
`
`It
`
`is usually agreed
`
`that
`
`the necessary
`
`demandwillingness
`
`to pay skills
`availablc
`for this expansion
`
`space
`
`feed
`
`resources etc are potentially
`is also agreed
`that challenges
`
`It
`
`ft
`
`icr-i to to to
`
`01
`
`to
`
`such
`
`as habitat modifications
`
`or destructions
`
`are not
`
`lacking
`
`related inter
`
`cilia
`
`to environmental
`issues
`e.g man
`alterations
`
`groves water and health management
`and
`species
`introductions
`conflicts
`for
`
`genetic
`
`use
`
`of
`
`space
`
`and
`
`other
`
`resources
`
`of contaminants
`
`becomes
`
`including with capture
`can be expected as the sub-sector
`The
`
`fisheries and release
`
`Progress
`
`.8
`
`oH
`
`.3
`
`fully
`
`fledged
`
`primary production industry
`
`will
`
`become
`
`more
`
`efficient
`
`water
`
`parsimonious
`
`technology
`and feeds more
`and water and release of contaminants
`
`e.g in the use
`
`of
`
`in the use
`
`of space
`
`into the ecosystem
`
`It will
`
`complete the
`
`fisheries fisheries
`
`shifting
`
`from mono-
`
`to
`
`range of production systems
`enhancement
`and
`
`culture-based
`
`polyculture
`from capture
`
`fisheries
`
`to capture-based
`
`Cl C-
`
`r-
`
`oH
`
`extensive
`
`and
`
`intensive
`
`farming systems
`
`integrating with
`
`irrigation agriculture
`and space
`
`and
`
`fisheries
`
`for better
`
`use of
`
`inputs
`
`-p
`
`obvious
`
`environmental
`
`scarcity
`
`of
`
`Outlook
`The predictions
`optimism in the sense
`
`available
`
`reflect
`
`technological
`strong
`of Costanza et all 2000
`
`despite
`
`the
`
`i-i
`
`to so
`
`to
`to to
`
`.-
`
`to
`to
`
`81
`
`if
`
`tCtcNr
`
`C-
`
`to
`
`--
`
`to to to
`
`ft
`
`.3
`
`.5
`
`ft
`
`impact
`and feed supply particularly
`space
`Ihe current
`aquaculture production
`ca 35 mt one-quarter of
`the worid fishery production
`FAO forecasts
`than the
`1995
`and pro-
`higher
`70 mt sn 2015 Bruinsma
`to reach cci
`duetson ss projected
`and 8090 mtby 2030 FAO 2000 Other outlooks
`the articulation with capture
`fisheries production will
`in 2d These
`they do not foresee
`
`already
`
`2003
`
`and
`
`be discussed
`
`mistsc
`
`in that
`
`is
`
`predictions
`
`are all rather opti
`
`the
`
`future
`
`problem for aquaculture
`supplydemand
`
`gap BrugŒre
`
`freshwater appropriate
`
`for carnivore
`
`species
`
`and potential
`
`in meeting
`Ridler 2004 looking
`plans of
`top-producing
`summed
`
`18
`
`at
`
`the aquaculture
`
`development
`
`countries
`
`conclude
`
`that
`
`the
`
`for development match
`national
`expectations
`made from global
`supplydemand
`are found at regional
`
`the
`
`analysis
`
`level
`
`predictions
`
`even though discrepancies
`
`fisheries has
`
`exponentially
`
`1980s
`
`and
`
`since
`
`ft
`
`ft
`
`81
`
`ft
`
`ti
`to
`
`..
`
`-B
`
`.5
`
`ft
`
`.3
`
`.5
`
`to
`
`se
`
`.5
`
`no
`
`o.c to
`
`to
`
`C-i
`
`01
`
`ri
`
`ft
`
`.8
`
`F-
`
`PhiL Trans
`
`Soc
`
`2005
`
`Marine supply andfood security
`Reported world production of marine capture
`from 1.52 mt
`in 1850 Moiseev 1965
`increased
`to cci
`18 mt before World War
`II Chapman 1970 increasing
`1950 and the mid
`from 19 to 80 mt between
`to 8588 mt
`then
`by China
`Considering that
`figure
`might be overestimated
`worid marine catches might have
`at ca 80 mt omitting
`cci 20 mt
`indeed stagnated
`IUU
`l990s and
`then and
`10 mt since
`the manne land
`
`rising very
`
`slowly
`
`catches
`
`reported
`
`discards
`
`in the 1980s
`
`and
`
`catches
`
`If the Chinese data are excluded
`
`countries
`
`10/0 during
`
`corrected
`
`by
`
`from wild
`
`rate of
`
`have decreased by cci
`ings of all other
`the 1990s If Chinese data were
`as proposed
`Pauly 2001 the total marine harvest
`Watson
`stocks would appear stable
`the eariy 1990s Garcia
`since
`de Leiva Moreno 2001 Nevertheless
`the annual
`has decreased from cci
`of reported marine catches
`increase
`69% per year
`
`in the late
`
`l950s and early l960s to almost
`
`zero
`
`in the first half of
`
`the
`
`1990s
`
`see Garcia
`
`Newton
`
`NEP877ITC-00681
`
`107
`
`JX-0056.007
`
`NEPN 2016
`
`

`
`N0CN
`
`CO
`
`CO
`
`CO
`
`C..NNC
`CON0
`Nt
`
`Li
`
`en
`
`.5
`
`cci
`
`COCC0
`
`CC
`
`CO
`
`CC
`
`Cci
`
`50
`Pt
`
`It
`
`52cC5a
`
`Li
`
`ci
`
`tj
`
`-c
`
`.5
`
`It
`
`Gloom and doom
`
`Garcia
`
`and
`
`Graingcr
`
`27
`
`1997 indicating
`conventional
`
`species
`
`that
`
`zontal
`
`thick
`
`line drawn
`
`the maximum possible
`supply of
`ihe straight hori
`has been reached
`time
`
`on figure
`
`beyond
`
`the present
`
`includes
`
`all species and sources
`
`of wild fishes and indicates
`
`the total potential
`
`supply Whether
`
`or not it will be fully
`
`realized will depend
`on the performance
`and on what will be considcrcd
`
`an acceptable
`
`of management
`impact on thc
`
`ccosystcm in future
`
`Approximately
`for human
`
`directly
`
`70% of marine
`production
`food and marine
`
`fisheries
`
`is
`
`used
`
`play
`
`an
`
`for raising cattle poultry
`human
`
`marine
`
`directly
`
`the
`
`used
`
`as
`
`used
`
`fish
`
`impurtant
`role in food security
`of the world fish pro
`Part
`duction mainly marine is reduced to fishmeal
`and oil used
`and fish and is therefore
`The proportion of
`food indirectly
`reported
`fisheries production that has been
`capture
`for human food has declined
`from Co 80% in the
`to ca 65% since
`1950s
`and
`1960s
`the early 1970s Garcia
`de Leiva Moreno
`2003 Coastal ecosystems produce
`more than 90% of the food provided by marine ecosystems
`1012% of
`Coral
`reefs
`alone
`the fish
`in
`produce
`caught
`2025% of
`and
`countries
`the
`caught
`by
`tropical
`developing nations As much as 90% of the animal protein
`consumed in many Pacific island countries
`is of marine ori
`used for direct human
`gin The reported marine landings
`have steadily increased with time reaching Ca
`the end of the 1990s When Chinas statistics
`the production appears to have
`however
`the mid-i 980s Cons