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`Apple Exhibit 1225 Page 00001
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`Apple Exhibit 1225 Page 00001
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`RECORDING 4
`
`TOP 10 SINGLES 40
`
`COMPUTERS 46
`
`TOP 10 ALBUMS 63
`
`CONTENTS
`
`CHALLENGE OF CHANGE
`IN THE RECORDING INDUSTRY
`By Sam Sutherland
`AUDIO, VIDEO &
`SATELLITE TECHNOLOGIES
`By Rick Heffernan and Art Lebowitz
`
`4
`
`6
`
`RADIO:
`EVER-PRESENT ENTERTAINER
`By G. Harry Stine
`
`16
`
`RETAILING
`IN THE ELECTRONIC AGE
`By G. Harry Stine
`
`BILLBOARD
`CHARTS THE FUTURE
`Edited by Paul Grein
`
`22
`
`24
`
`90 WHO MADE IT HAPPEN ...
`90 WHO WILL
`
`31
`
`GREAT ACHIEVEMENTS
`IN CHART HISTORY
`Edited by Paul Grein
`
`CHARTTOPPERS:
`YEAR-END HITS
`
`HOME COMPUTING:
`SCENARIOS FOR SUCCESS
`
`CABLE TELEVISION
`COMING OF AGE
`By John Craft
`
`DEMOGRAPHICS:
`TRENDS AND EFFECfS
`By Carol Kahn
`
`36
`
`40
`
`46
`
`54
`
`66
`
`~~This is a product which may well revolutionize the retailing
`of home amusement products. It is not stretching too far
`to say that perhaps [it] may some day rival record sales in gro!Ss retail
`volume."
`The quote come:, from a Billboard front page of yesteryear. part of
`a report detaiJing new technological developments at RCA. The
`headline was equally bold: "Look at Future: TV Home Tape May be
`Sold Like Records."
`That particular piece of futurecasting was made on the occasion of
`an anniversary-Oct. l, 1956. the day that RCA's David arnoff
`"celebrated his Golden Anniversary in radio, television and elec(cid:173)
`tronics," according to the company. lt"s in the same pirit, and we
`hope.with some of the ::.arne foresight. that Billboard signifies an an(cid:173)
`niversary of its own with "a look at the future.''
`The publication came into existence on Nov. l, 1894, '"devoted to
`the interesb of advertisers, poster printers, billposters. advertising
`agen~s. and secretaries of fairs.'' It's evolved from th at 19th century
`purpo~e. acquiring (and relinquishing) a few other ed itorial amb i(cid:173)
`tions along the way. to encompass today's ever-broadenin g horizons
`of musir and home entertainment.
`To celebrate 90 year& of continuous publication. th~refore, we of(cid:173)
`fer ''Bil lboard Charts The Future''-a series of special reports de(cid:173)
`signed to probe and perhaps even predict the:: shape, the sigh t and
`the sounds of home entertainment in the '90s and beyond.
`Th,e J:~>re of this ::>pecial issue has been specificall y prepared for
`Billboa'rd b) Data for the Future. a pre~tigious "'think tank" which
`pecializ~s in the formulation and development of trend ana lyses
`u~d ....rt>uorith. and whi('h pn•' ide~ mana~t>nwnt ~·uu~ultation ~t'r·
`\
`~·~~ thc-f~
`
`The organi zation, with facilities in New York and Phoenix, is led
`by Dr. Herb London and Dr. Rob Melnick, nationally known for
`their work as researchers, writers and speakers in the area of future
`stud ies. Among other credentials, both have affiliations with another
`well·known think tank, the Hudson Institute -and both are former
`professional musicians. Working under their direction on the Bill(cid:173)
`board project has been a team of scholars, engineers, writers and
`communications experts.
`Data for the Future's six report!:! herein disect various aspects of
`th e home entertainnlen t industry's evolution. Prominent among
`th em are audio/video software delivery and programming systems;
`the relation!:thips of those systems to current and anticipated tele(cid:173)
`comm unications technology; the role of the home computer; the dis(cid:173)
`tribution and retailing of consumer products; and international de·
`mographi c trends, and their economic effects.
`or neces::>ity, many of the articles are concerned with the techno!·
`ogy of home entertainment. Who will be tomorrow's movers and
`shakers in the creative comm unit y? That informatiou is vi rtuall y im·
`po~sible to capture and to quantify. apart from the certainty of cycli(cid:173)
`cal trends (the periodic emergence or an entertainment supersta r, for
`example, such as Frank Sinatra or Michael Jackson). ,
`Technology fuels creati vi ty, of course. A number or the develop·
`ments identified and predicted in th ese pages will yield innovative
`and e>-citin g entertainment forms, just as th e invention of the gramo·
`phone record did, and ju~t as the arrival of th e videocassette record(cid:173)
`er is doing.
`For these and other reasons. each article offers information on the
`pao.t and pre-:-~:nt. 8" \\'t> ll tt-. ~peculation 'll"•nt tht> future. S""• nf
`qnd
`dat a
`l, ile tllhr
`•rt>,·a~t
`
`surprising. Taken as a whole or in part, we hope th e results will be
`both challenging and useful.
`
`THE ART IN THIS ISSUE: To con trast the historical navur of
`this commemorative issue, Billboard has selected a representation of
`internationally acclaimed computer-generated graphic~ to accompa·
`ny the editorial theme-the evolution of home entertainment & mu·
`sic technology. lt will be of interest to note, all six reproductions on
`our editorial pages were digitally simu lated by a computer (with the
`exception of the robot from "Metropolis'' on page 47). Working with
`the world's most powerful computers, today's visual special effects
`designers are able to ~imulate photographi c reality a::> easily as a key(cid:173)
`board synth esizer simulates a bras.s section. tt ls it live or computer(cid:173)
`ge nerated?" is the que ti on we can all ask ourselves from time to
`time while watching a movie or a TV commercial. Soon we may have
`to pinch ourselves to see if we' re really d ream in~.
`
`CREDITS: Edilor-ln-Chief, Adam White : Executive Ed1tonal
`Director, Lee Zhito; Edilorial Consultanls, Dala For The Fu(cid:173)
`ture; Special Issues Editor, Ed Ochs; Assistant Edilor. Ro(cid:173)
`byn Wells; Technical Advisor/Computer Graphics, Peter
`Sorensen; Layoul Assistant, Anne Richardson-Daniel, Art
`Direclor. J. Daniel Chapman.
`
`Dedicated to W.O. Littleford, Chairman & President, Bill(cid:173)
`board Publications Inc.
`
`Page 00002
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`

`

`Home Comput ____ ·
`
`SCENARIOS FOR
`SUCCESS
`
`By
`Larry
`Israelite
`
`he obituary was short, and it appeared simultaneously in newspapers throughout
`the country. It read: " Born-1977. Died-1984. Cause of death-terminal ne(cid:173)
`glect." Thus the death of the home computer was made public by those who had
`announced its birth; industry analysts who possess the power to make or break
`products, companies, or entire industries by making educated guesses.
`
`The obi tu ary was premature-not becau~e the hume romputer in·
`du~t ry is ~till alive and well. but be('ause it has ye t tu be bnrn. There
`i~ no computer produet that ran br <·ailed a true hnme C'omputer.
`There are million~ of computers in home" throughout the Uni ted
`Sta!Ch. hut man) arc rarely u:-ed. And if they are used. it i~
`mu~tl) for playing games-most of which do not require
`data ent r) ---or for work-related tasks that could be C'om(cid:173)
`l)leted (!<omew hat le~-. ("OO\ enientl). perhap:o) in an of(cid:173)
`fice. The home l'omputer has been pronoun('ed dead be·
`cau~e indm.tr)' a nla y~ t s finally realized "'hat many of the
`le!'ls informed had realized a long time agn: that the so(cid:173)
`called home romputen .. current!) on the market are too ex(cid:173)
`pensive and too romplex for ~e n eral home use. The fart is. for
`('nmputers to be succes~fu l in the home markeL they must co~t the
`!;a me and be as easy to use as our more hasic home entertainment
`equipmen t. sud1 a!; stereo ~et~ and televisions.
`
`The Persona l Computer
`Thl" devire that has been referred to a1-o the ··home computer .. is
`part of a lar~er •·mnputer category known a<.; the "persona l cnmput(cid:173)
`er.'' The description "personal t'nmputer" was based on the nntion
`that th~ rnmpu ter was de!o;igned for use hy one peN-on. This use was
`in C'Ontrast to an earlier C'OnC'ept in com put in{! knuwn as "time-shar(cid:173)
`in{!··-many llenple sharinJ; one relatively large computer. Personal
`C'Ompute r:; first rame into publit· view in the mid-1970s. Sinre then,
`;;.core:-. of personal com 1wters have rome and gone, with none achiev(cid:173)
`in~ the ultimate ~oal of hecominp; the fir!-! true home rom llUtt'r.
`The first personal tomputer tu make a :-.ignificant impact on the
`market wa-. the Apple II. which fir.st appeared in 1977. By today":-.
`standards. the Apple wa!'l archaic·. but at that time it was truly revolu(cid:173)
`tiunary. The Apple was small. <·o uld be C'tlnnec-tcd to a television set.
`and ruu ld Ji<~.play up tn sixteen rolors. Several other personal com(cid:173)
`puter;;.. <~.uc h a~ the Radio Shat·k TRS-80. the Commodore Pet. anrl
`the Texas ln~truments TI-99. allfleared at the ~arne time ao;:. the Ap(cid:173)
`ple. nr !'lwrtly thereafter. It wa~ the Apple. however. that made the
`biJ!~rst impaf't and wal- In remain the indu!'.try leader for years to
`c·mne.
`1\ .. the pupularity nf per<:.nnal romputeN began to increase. the
`notion of a rnmputer in every home began to develop. Industry ana(cid:173)
`l)"'l" predit·ted. and 5ale'O rerord<~. indiC'ated. that there were hun·
`dreds of thnu sand-.. if not millions. nf people who were willing to
`>pend up tn $3.000 on a rom puler and all of the related equipment
`required tel use it. So while the market shares of Apple and Hadio
`Shad, c(lntinued to grow. no one suspected that their dominance was
`about to C'ome to a dramatic end .
`In Augu~t of 198 1 the lfiM . PC was introduced. It represented
`IBM 'c:. entry into tht personal c·omputer market. The IDM-PC wao;:.
`not a re\o luti o n ar~ procluc.:l. It hac! few, if any. extraurdinary fea(cid:173)
`ture ... It wa-. rated a<~. he in ~ no more ad\·a nced than mud1 of it~ t'Om(cid:173)
`petition. However. it was manufactured by the larr;est and most pres(cid:173)
`tig:ious maker (and marketer) of compute r~ in the world. The IBM ·
`PC a<"hie\ ed market dominanc-e almn .... t immediately and became the
`indu~tr) :;tandard virtually uvernight.
`Torlay the l>er<;onal l'Omputer indu<~.try io; ... till dominated by IBM .
`
`The IBM PCjr Enhanced Model includes a s lim-line diskette
`drive. 62-key infrared keyboard and 131 .072 characters of
`user me mory.
`
`There is everl an indu~try ba~ed on the manufacture of IBM look·
`ali\...es. Apple rel·entl y re~ained a small .;;hare of its lost market with
`the release of the Ma intu:-h and the Apple II C. '!'exas Instruments,
`while dismntinuing its sma ll personal C'omputer (the 99 :-<eries). man(cid:173)
`ufaC'tures the Professional r.omputer. and Radio haC'k offers a large
`personal C'omputer line. While other large computer manufactur·
`er~Oif!;i tal E(tuipment Corporation. Oata Gene-ral. rrr. AT&T(cid:173)
`ha,·e introdu<'ed personal C'omputer product line'>. none ha\ e come
`C'ln!<>e tn arhie,in~ the >tun·e-.s of IBM.
`
`The Personal Computer at Home
`As was mentioned ea rlier. mo~t of the~e J)Crsona l computers "'ere
`a ·tuall y beinJ!: Jlu r<'hased for busines~ purposes. regardless of where
`they were ultimate!) m-e<l. llowe\er. at leac:.t three <·ompanies(cid:173)
`Atari. Commodore. and Timex-did attempt to market t·ompu ters
`designed specifiea ll) for home usC'. Commodore. "e llinfr_ the VIC-20
`and tlw Cum mndnre 64. \\3:- anrl <~.till is the most 5UC't'essful. having
`attained a market share of (wer 50 perrent. Timex. marketing the
`Timex/ inclair l 000. 'Ita!' e-.:traordinaril) ~uccec:.sful for a very short
`time. but their offering lat·ked power and was difficult to use. And
`Atari. "hile :-urce<~.s ful in the \ideo game arena. was never able to
`arhieve the neressar~ market penetration with it~;~ home computer
`products. resu ltinft in it.., .:-ale h) Warner Communication.:;.
`Using the Commodore 64 as an example. let"s: exam ine what is
`required tu he~in hom~ tompu ter uc:.age in earnest.
`The CommnJore 64 C'an be purC'hao;;ed olmost an)where. except(cid:173)
`interestingl)-i" rompu ter retail .;:;torec:.. It is relatively inexpensive
`(it ran be purrha.!'ed for ju.!'tunder $200) and there i.;:; a large body or
`available '-Oft ware. \\thy. then . i..., there no "'" rh thinfr_ as a home com·
`1•uter? The an.,wer i~ >timple: The Commodore 64 mav cost only
`$200. hut to do any c:.erinuc;: computing. home or other"' ise. you will
`neeci 10 pur<'ha<:.e a few other th i n ~~ a"' well. Fnr e'\arnple
`F'ir .. t. the ron...,ume r mu~t he able to usc and store prugramc;. That
`(Continued on page
`
`Page 00003
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`

`

`Home Computing
`
`SCENARIOS FOR
`SUCCESS
`
`The second scenario. which involves the tran mission of d1ll
`across telephone lin~. is slightly more realistic. The assumption on
`which this is based is that the availability of high-speed, low~rror
`transmission of digital data will be limited in the immediate futu.rt..
`As owners of a digital mu ic sy tern. consumers no longer want to
`purchase records or tapes. Instead. they want to purchase floppy
`disks on which to store music selections. Because they don't have
`access to high-speed digital communtcations lines. they must make
`their purchases at their local record store. which, with more sophisti(cid:173)
`cated equipment than consumers have at home. is able to recei,·e
`digital data directl)· from regional record company branches.
`The customer goes to the rerord
`tore and requests that a specific
`"album" be put on Hopp disk. The clerk plae<:s a 6oppy in a di•k
`drive. call
`the branch, and places the order. A short time later, the
`disk is removed from the disk drive. tested. and the purchase i.s com·
`pleted.
`What makes this scenario interesting is that it identifies a new
`level of competition that will erupt among record companies and
`among mu IC retailers. Those who possess the technology will un
`the product. If digital music technology becomes the industry tan(cid:173)
`dard. those who will be most successful will bot the firms that invest
`earl} and grow as the technology develops. As traditional sources of
`music in the home change, so must the industries that .have tradition(cid:173)
`ally supplied that music.
`Two importBnt points must be made here. First. although the sce(cid:173)
`narios presented above relate onh to music, the same data-tran mis(cid:173)
`sion techniques will be 8\ailable .for all digital data. Thus, a other
`fonns of entertainment (e.g .• video} are di~itized, they. too, will be(cid:173)
`rome randidates for these S<'enarios. Very
`imply. music (and other
`home entertainment options) will become just another l)'pe of com·
`puter soft"• are.
`Soon there will be stores that market computer soft"' are in the
`broadest sense of the word: music. gamt>s. educatton. applicatioD!.
`At the same time. stores that ha.,.e sold mu ~ ic "'·ill continue to do so.
`The challenge for the music retail industry ¥~ill be to berome compe(cid:173)
`tent at marketin(t a type of product with which they have no experi(cid:173)
`ence. AI the same time. tradttional outlets for computer software will
`compete for music software busi ne-ss. At the ver~· least. the competi(cid:173)
`tion ~ hould be interesting.
`The ;;:econd point 1s related to the contrast bet"Yr~·~n the '1\·ay in
`which "e percei,·e home romputer. and other home entertainment
`~uipment. Mo~t of us o"n tele\·i!iion. VCRs. receh·ers. turntables.
`c.assette deck . etc. \\e perrei..-e the!lie de., ices as providing home n(cid:173)
`tertainment. Some of us also ov. n computers. but we perceive them
`clifftrently. Home compute~ are used for other reason . althou~h we
`are not really sure" hat tho~ rea.5ons are. Hov.·e.,.er, a~ technolopeal
`breakthrough" occur, thts perception will change. A computer will
`be the device that pro,•ides access to all other de,· ice • that unlocks
`the diptal world in which all home entertainment will recide. 1'ht
`computer will be an ine~tricable part of an\ home entertainmentS\~
`tern. At the qme time. howe,·er. the home.('()mputer will be- a de'"~
`that will help us tn e''ef') BSpe<"t of our Ji,·eo:. Let'~ look at an eu.m·
`pie.
`Yello" Data 1s a ,·ideotext sen·1ce in BelmonL ~1ac;;sachusett . that
`operates in a wa~ ~lightl) different from than of other such sen;ces
`Yello"' Data i_ free . Instead of the user paying for each mmute bt
`SPf'nds ··looking·· through Yello" Data'.s- electromc data ba~e. local
`businesse~ pa-, for the ~e n·ice h) ad..-erti ing their goods and Rr·
`.,·ires. ju~t a"- though ) ello" Data were a newspaper.
`Yello"' Data is aC'Ces..~ h) dialing a local telephone number and
`then attachin(t ~our computer to the telephone {you need a modem
`for that--another $75 to $200}. The fir<t thing ~·ou see i_ a menu of
`option~ relate-d to the different h·pes of data bases currenth· on the
`system. The menu might include option5 such as ··Entertainment.-
`(Continued on page 90TH-8J)
`
`(Continued from page 90TH-4G)
`requires a small <'8Ssette recorder and player; only Commodore's will
`\\ork. Add abou t $60 to the purchase price of the computer. Two
`weeks after buying that. the consumer finds most good software is
`not available in that fonnat. and even ii it were, loading and storing
`low. The nut purchase: a disk
`programs on ca sette is unbearably
`dri\·e that costs about $250.
`The next problem i!:l- ho~ to ,·iew programs. The home television
`will work unlil others in the hou ehold want to watch a show when
`the computer user wants to compute. That old black-and-white tv in
`the gues.t room "on't suffice. because, unfortunately. most of the
`softv.are programs require color. In addition. the televi ion display
`is such that the top and bottom lines of each display are lost. The
`onh solution: the purchase of a $250 monitor. The $200 computer
`has no\\o rost over three times as much.
`There is t-rill one other major expense: for meaningful activity. a
`printer is necessar)·--and a printer interface. Over $1.000 has been
`.;;,pent b) this point. and still more must be. for Ropp)' disks. paper. a
`printer ~tand. a computer table and the bottomless pit known a'l: soft(cid:173)
`ware. Total: at least 1.200.
`
`There is one other point that must be made. Using a home rom(cid:173)
`puler i~ difficuh. It isn't like loading a tape on a VCR or playing a
`record. In a nut .. hell. then. the home computer is a device that is
`expt"n .. ive (\\hen compared to other home entertainment denC"e~)
`and is difficult to u..~ (when compared to an)1hing). Is there any
`douht about the reasons for the demise of the home romputer indus(cid:173)
`If"). or "h'" some ~a) it never reall) e isted in the fi~t place?
`
`Selling the Produc t
`Computer dealers. most of whom do not ~II Commodore prod(cid:173)
`ucts. complained bitterl) "hen Commodore allo"ed its products to
`bt- <:;old h}
`tore5 that did not pedalite in computers. Their com(cid:173)
`plaint was that the computers would be purchased at di'>C'Ount stores
`(priced belo" dealer cost}. bnt the computer retailers would be
`forced to deal "ith all of the problem~ charge that was not "ith·
`out .,·alidity. Other home romputers are nailable from a wide range
`of retailers. but all "'real .. oomputers are available only at store8 that
`re;:.trict their salt'l: to computer products. The point here is ve~ sim(cid:173)
`ple: -\ product that can be sold only at pecialty stores because it is
`"0 dtffic:ult to u ... e 1s not ,·et read"! for the mass market. ... uch \\a.s.
`And still is. the tase "1th. home ~mputers.
`
`e.n a rios fo r Su ~CeM
`Before conc;;idering ho"' romputers might ~ used in the home in
`the near future. it is u.seful to consider ho" the) are used no"' in
`common home entertainment de,· ices. For eumpie. the e..-ent timer
`in a VCR i.s controlled b~ a small computer. and compact audio pia ·
`ers use a laser computer to read information from pie<'tS of plastiC" (a
`small computer translate-s. the infonnation that the laser usees" into
`frequenq patients that result in the music we hear). Almost any so(cid:173)
`phi,.ticated electronic de., ice makes u~ of embedded computers to
`operate. \Vhile these de.,·ic-t:!' are not n~"'Brily home computers.
`the technolog) on .,._.hich the~ are based i
`identical.
`.... what's in store for the near-term future of home computers?
`Th1~ que8tion can best be answered b) determining" hat home com·
`puler- must and u."il/ be able to do before we" ilhngly purchase them
`0
`co and intf!'grate them into our lhe-. The an!'Yr~er is relatiH:ly eas). The
`
`*- home romputer ",I) ha,·f!' to fit on the "-helf nt'Ct to our di~ital tele., i-
`
`h8\'e to be able to take the place of what currently requires a turnta(cid:173)
`bl•. cassette deck, and compact audio disc player to do. A fully inte(cid:173)
`grated home computer will enable us to do our banking, buy grocer(cid:173)
`ies. pay bills. set up doctor's appointment~. and help our children do
`their homework. The computer will al o show local movie c;chedules.
`let us study the menus from our favorite restaurants. and allo" us to
`order and pay for concert and theatre tickets. It will remind us to
`mail birthday card~. take the car in for service, and call the bab
`sitter.
`Also. the home computer must and will soon become more afford(cid:173)
`able. It must be able to perform all of the tasks listed above and !!)till
`cost far less than it does toda"!. This will happen in the near future.
`and thi~ "real" home computer will change the v.·ay you live.
`The be t wa)· to gain an insight into the wa)"S in which computers
`will become integrated into our lives is to eumine tv.o products. The
`lirst product might be called the at~dio ystem of the future. The St"<'·
`ond product is actual!) a computer sen·i e that requires the use of a
`home computer. IL too. has the potential to dramatirBily alter the
`way tn which we live.
`
`Computerized H o m e A udio
`The introduction of tbe Compact Disc brought home audio into
`the age of the computer in a erious way. The result was a quantum
`leap in the quality of sound re-production available- in the home. ln·
`fortunately. the Compact Disc player is exactly that: a player. Cur(cid:173)
`rent!). there i no product on the market that penn its digital encod(cid:173)
`mg of audio source material in the home. Individuals who like to
`record their own music must u~ cassette or reel-to-reel tape and ac(cid:173)
`dept the Hav.·s in reproduction that a<'rompany analog technolog).
`Early ne~t }ear. howe.,·er. sees the introduction of the Compu.son(cid:173)
`ics DSP-1000. a digital audio recording/playback syst<m. If th•
`D P-1000 li,·es up to its manufacturer's claims. audiophiles will be
`able to make home recordings that match the quality of compact
`discs. Further. these reco.rdings will be stored on 5-V. inch Hopp~·
`di_cs. the same as those used with almost all home computers. An
`additional feature of the DSP-1000 io; that it will have an interface
`for the 18\1-PC that will enable the user to manipulate the digital
`data stored on the Hoppy diSC>. The r.suh is that old records and
`tapes ca n be ·•cteaned up;· the sound produced by voice and in(cid:173)
`:.truments can be changed-the user will be able to e'{ercis-e com(cid:173)
`plete control over the sound·reprodu<'lion process.
`On the surface. the announcement of thi product and the techno I·
`ogJ that make:o. it possible may s-eem like a relath·el~' mode::t step
`forward. To undeN;tand wh)" it rna) be more than that. it' ne~'1
`to brieR) mention the way~ in v.hich digital data can be shipped into
`the home.
`One medium that is currently u~ for s hipping digital data over
`long distances is telephone lines. Unfortunate!). the speed at "hich
`data can be shipped o.,·er e"tisting phone line:. i_ relath·ely ~lo"
`(1,200 single pieces of information per second). and the error rate is
`relati.,·ely high. This make~ hipment of lar!f' amounts of data .,-ja
`this medium ::-omewhat difficult. In the ''en· near future. ho\\e.,er. a
`sen·ice v.ill be available that will allow the o:;hipment of 144..000
`pieces of information per second o.,·er telephone lines \\ith an ex·
`tremel~ loY~ error rate. The e~pectation ili> that tv.·eh·e cities v.ill ha .. ·e
`a~ to thi~ sen·ice by earl)· 1985. A second mean!'~ of shipping
`digital data to the home is O\er cable tele.,Uon lines. With current
`cable tt"<'hnolog>·. it should be possible to '>hip enough data to equal a
`45-minute LP in Jess than 15 minute .
`\\hat does shipment of data have to do with a digital recording/
`pla)"back device? The answer is simple. l..ssume that the cost of the
`DSP-1000 (current!) projected to be around $1 ,200 "hen it is intro(cid:173)
`duced) drops at the same rate as other computer-ba...~ electronic de(cid:173)
`.,·ic~. It "·ill cost $200 to S300 in a fe" .,·ear-. Then a5"ume that
`there are low-co~t. high-speed techniques for shipping digital data
`into the home. \t aking these assumptions. 10 the not-too-di~tant fu(cid:173)
`ture ronsume~ \\111 be able to bu) music at home. over telephone
`lin~ or through cable televi ion hookup-s-. and pla) it bad, through
`an audio de.,·ice resembling a microromputer. Lef ... look at t""'o "-l't(cid:173)
`narios.
`The firs.t scenario in,·oh·es cable tele.,·ision. One e.,·ening you de·
`cide that )OU would like to own a copy ofth< •oundtnrk oftbe •·ideo
`dip you just Yr~·atched on MTV. You change the channel (u_ing the
`keyboard on )·our home entertainment contTol module) so you can
`find out the name of the song and the acces.s number under which it
`i ~ tored in the cable company's data bas-e. Then. after you load a
`Hoppy disk,into ~·our D ... P-1000. you dial up the cable o:.tation, f'nter
`the a~ rode and a usend data" code. When you re-ceh·e a .. data
`trans.mis-..ion complete" ~iptal. the process is finished. The ftopp~
`dLk no\\ will contain the !-Ong:.
`tored in digital fonn. All charg~ as(cid:173)
`~iated v. ith the data trao.s..fer "-;II be itemi.%ed on "!·our monthly ca(cid:173)
`ble sen·i~ bill. v. htch you can see on the monitor ir ·ou ro ch~.
`We are <:;;tiU se.,·eral )·ears aY~·ay from a scenario such as this be.
`coming rea.lit). The rea...<1o0n. hov.·e\er. i:5 not because the recording
`technolog) doe5 not exist. The limiting factor "Yr~ill be the relati,·el)
`lov. number of fulh functional cable tele.,ision installations. Thi~
`¥~ill change. but ~use of the political and tf"'nomic iS!iUt"S _:" ur·
`
`Page 00004
`
`

`

`Home Computing
`
`(Continued from page 90TH-80)
`"Local News," "Shop-at-Home," and "Classifieds." Typing the first
`three letters of an option title allows you to gain access to that data
`base. The "Entertainment" data base. for example, contains infor·
`mation on movie schedules, local restaurants, concerts, and other
`similar events. The "Classified" data. base contains information on
`both merchandise and services for sale. By making selections from
`the menus, you are able to locate the specific information that you
`are seeking.
`Today, Yellow Data's potential audience is limited to the number
`of people who have computers and modems--<>stimated by Yellow
`Data's president, Richard Koch, to be approximately 300,000 in the
`Boston metropolitan area. Of the potential audience, only a small
`portion currently use the service, although the number is increasing
`steadily. h is important to remember, however, that the home com(cid:173)
`puter industry is still in its infancy. As a result, Yellow Data's tnu
`audience is not yet capable of making use of the service. However, as
`the number of homes that have computer-integrated home entertain·
`ment systems grows, so will Yellow Data's audience and market.
`Now let's look at how Yellow Data relates to music retailing.
`If the consumer had access to a computer and to a service like
`Yellow Data, even that purchasing technique might become obso(cid:173)
`lete. Instead, he or she could look through a data base of songs avail(cid:173)
`able in digital for)Tl, indicate those wished to purchase, type in a
`charge card number and address, and the Ooppy disc would arrive in
`the mail two days later.
`Using this scenario, each night, record stores would receive a list
`of order1> placed during the day. floppy disc recordings would be
`produced at night and mailed the next morning. It would be possible
`to purchase an entire music collection without leaving home. Almost
`all shopping could be accomplished in this manner, so computers in
`the home will have a major impact on the entire retail industry, not
`just on music retailing.
`So what about the future? Will there ever be a market for home
`computers? The answer is "no" if you are asking if there will ever
`be a time when we will use computers in the home, the answer is a
`resounding "yes," and it will be in the very near future . But the
`home computer will not be a device that sits on a table somewhere in
`the home and exists as an independent entity. Computer technology
`wiJI become a part of the home, just as telephone service, electricity,
`and running water are now. The impact of computers in the home
`will be felt in aU facets of out lives and will affect everything we do.
`
`Lany lsraeliu, Analys4 Daw For Tlu! Future, specializes in micro(cid:173)
`compuurs and video uchnowgiu.
`
`sELLS If!
`
`CONGRA1ULA110NS ON
`90 SUCCESSFUL Y£ARSI
`CAMElOT MUSIC
`
`8000 Freedom Ave. N.W., P.O . Box 21 69, North Canton, Ohio 44720-0 16
`
`Page 00005
`
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